Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 26/4/2007 12:17

VCLK and TD are more comparable than UK companies except DGM which has been a basket case lately. Decent PR would highlight the differences from those on ordinary ratings and similarities or advantages over those on the high ratings (which IBG has been growing faster than recently). IBG will be stronger than most on cashflow for a start, which will actually exceed reported earnings, and should justify a higher rating.

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:13

Have been looking at some recent Canaccord analysis of the sector. UK/EU average EV/EBITDA for 2007 is currently running at 12.7x (Canaccord, 20th April). I wanted to see how undervalued IBG really is compared to their peers.

The IBG market cap is currently £22.3m and EBITDA forecast for 2007 is £2.1m. Cash at year end was £1.4m, so EV based on that is about £20.9m now, and should rise to around £19.4m by year end based on current share price and if they bring in £1.5m cash during the year.

So, EV/EBITDA for 2007 = 19.4/2.1 = 9.2x

Based on that quick calculation IBG isn't really being valued very differently from others in the sector. 9.2x EV/EBITDA, compared to a 12.7x sector average. Maybe the price should be 40p based on that.

Of course, we could choose to use a regular PE rather than EV/EBITDA, or we could choose to compare the company to their US peers ratehr than UK/EU companies - that would probably change things in favour of the 'undervalued' argument, but it may be quite difficult to justify.

[the blackster] 26/4/2007 10:29

wasn't bill currie big into TMN from way back? He tends to back retail tech plays and seems to do pretty well.

Masurenguy - where else can you get this kind of entertainment?

[jumbo66] 25/4/2007 19:44

yep lrr put me into this share at 3p [hd] bid or not i dont see much downside anyways re jumbo[hd]

[reggieperrin] 25/4/2007 16:58

"if the business is that undervalued why not buyback some shares with free cash."

or directors put there money where their mouth is and buy shares ... interesting that Bill Currie has popped up with over 3% of the shares ... i had not heard his name linked to ibg before but i doubt he has accumulated all those shares in the market recently so assume he had a large holding from some time ago ... should attract the attention of lazy journos and those who like to follow 'shrewdies'.

btw - i tracked lrr down on another thread and he says he does still have his ibg shares ... just does not post on this thread anymore as he has set maz his targets for 2009 and is happy to let him get on with it ...

[bonio10000] 25/4/2007 16:33

if the business is that undervalued why not buyback some shares with free cash.

[cgequityinvest] 25/4/2007 16:18

I also attended the AGM and briefly (trying to avoid repitition) my summary would be:

* trading in line with forecasts
* Lots of strategic and M & A activity happening in their sector and accordingly opportunities
* Maz and team would like to look seriously at some form of acquisition/merger but cannot because the share price/institutional support is poor and therefore any acquisiton for paper would hit earnings and/or the existing institutions would not be supportive.
* Frustration also that institutions (with rare exceptions) do not understand the business model.

Like others I believe Maz comes across as committed and able and therefore I am inclined to be patient for a little longer and see what will emerge from the review.

[masurenguy] 25/4/2007 16:12

Dunno - give up - why are you reading it then ?

[the blackster] 25/4/2007 16:10

why am I reading this BB you freaks ;-)

[taurusthebear] 25/4/2007 16:04

Isn't CJ the one who got molested by Borat? :0)

[masurenguy] 25/4/2007 15:47

AliceinWonder from TMC.
Does CJ know that you are hunched over a PC posting this thread ?

[valustar1] 25/4/2007 15:29

Alice was there

[bonio10000] 25/4/2007 15:21

Generally because they should be picking up the kids from school at that time in the afternoon.

[the analyst] 25/4/2007 15:20

That was last year, aleman - 'clean cut, very short hair professional-looking'..... wearing miniskirt and high heels...

Talking about skirts, I have noticed that women rarely attend AGMs. I wonder why?

[the analyst] 25/4/2007 15:16

"Quotes are often taken out of contex"

That's true Blackster, but a bit of training and that sort of quote would never come out in the first place.

[aleman] 25/4/2007 15:16

Will you be in high heels and a miniskirt next time? That would be a proper midlife crisis.

[the analyst] 25/4/2007 15:14

I was the HAIRY one, lol! It's been a transformation, this time last year I was clean cut, very short hair professional-looking, just fancied a change. Maybe I'm going through mid-life crises early? The best thing for me, is it gives me a really good laugh every time I look in the mirror.

Did anyone notice how us scruffies all sat together?

[the blackster] 25/4/2007 15:12

Quotes are often taken out of context. Results said confident henno, media div and us are all starting to come on track.

[muffinhead] 25/4/2007 15:10

Again presentational timing issue...."strategic review"...AGM discussion and no outcome

How about a statement..."we have this offer on the table guys..this looks good for the company...can we get on with it"`9

[omlaysause] 25/4/2007 15:01

"were you the hairy one or did you have a tie on?"

Both ..... he's a scientist!!!

[valustar1] 25/4/2007 15:00

were you the hairy one or did you have a tie on?

[the analyst] 25/4/2007 14:58

Yeah, 'molecule' is another no-go word!

No, I didn't leave early, I sat at the back quietly as was not feeling well. Luckily for me, people were asking a lot of intelligent questions, so I didn't have to spend any energy getting involved. Am usually a lot more proactive, but just sat back and enjoyed listening this time.

[the analyst] 25/4/2007 14:53

Interviews, like the one above, where the CEO basically states they are not expecting to succeed with henoo, really don't help. Anyone focussing on that sentence and thinking of investing would probably rethink, or just hold off until better news comes through. After all if the CEO doesn't expect to succeed, then why should anyone else?

The trouble is, I really don't think that is Maz's real opinion. I think he just says these things out of modesty, but I don't think that modesty is in any way appropriate in such situations.