Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[waynerwayner] 27/4/2007 10:05

34p by close?

[68steve] 27/4/2007 09:59

It would appear they have a stock shortage and anything over 6xnms is paying a hefty premium,friday afternoon rally??

[old boy returns] 27/4/2007 09:41

Thanks Taurus - PML - that is one seriously amusing post. The 'Nerd of the Week' bit is a classic. I think I should start frequenting the Pub again !

Back on topic someone seems to be hoovering up all the IBG shares available in the market in hefty chunks and is prepared to pay a premium for them. Could be Bill Currie adding more. Should not have to wait long to find out now that IBG is under TP rules.

"OBR - here is a recent post by "Alice", I'd recommend all of his posts:-

[valustar1] 27/4/2007 09:24

Our keen buyer is back

they have just bought 60k at 32.5p when the spread was 30-31p

[aleman] 27/4/2007 08:58

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said advertising and marketing communications companies may face increased pressure this year on rising merger and acquisition activity of corporates, as agencies place their bets on the future of digital advertising.

S&P said in a recent report that in the longer term, billings could be negatively affected by lower yields on online products, with merger and acquisition focus on new digital distribution channels likely to reduce returns during the initial start-up phase.

The ratings agency said the companies have benefited from three consecutive years of growth in advertising and marketing communications spend in both established and emerging markets, fuelled by strong corporate profitability and consumer confidence.

'Advertisers are increasingly driven toward a more direct access to the consumer base through personalized digital media. Advertising and communications agencies have so far stayed ahead of the game, expanding the range of services they provide to their advertising clients, but price competition is intensifying,' said Standard & Poor's analyst Anna Overton.

As a result, material margin improvement in media planning and buying is unlikely to emerge as a credit-supportive factor, she said.

The report compares the business and financial risk profiles of Japan-based Dentsu Inc, US-based Omnicom Group Inc, UK-based WPP Group PLC, France-based Publicis Groupe SA and US-based Interpublic Group of Cos Inc.

[taurusthebear] 27/4/2007 03:48

OBR - here is a recent post by "Alice", I'd recommend all of his posts:-

[old boy returns] 27/4/2007 00:27

HN - spot on there. Back then I only knew about the online retail side with which I had dealings (and which was and still is pretty unexciting and a bit of a wate of time) and AF was pretty embryonic and, to be honest I, like most others, did not get it. But LRR did not give up on me and eventually I saw the light (thankyou LRR) before the crowd did. Good thing is that once I realised I was wrong I bought heavily at 2.5p -4p and have only topsliced about 25% of my holding so I still have just over 600K.

[hirschnathan] 26/4/2007 23:58

Old boy

I was scanning some fool posts and funny how a few years back, you thought ibg was a waste of time. Things change so quickly

[old boy returns] 26/4/2007 23:33

valustar - I have not visited PP's Pub on TMF for too long. So is Carmensfella now and IBG convert? I did not know that. Last I was there he was the resident expert on Ben Bailey. Good to have him on board if so. Also who is Alice on TMF?

[spacecowboy3] 26/4/2007 23:19

the analyst

Great research and analysis today - thanks.

BTW, I was sitting at the front on the right. It was me that asked directly fairly early on in the proceedings whether Maz was planning an MBO.

[valustar1] 26/4/2007 19:18

the analyst

The guys next to you were Alice and Carmensfellow, posters on the Motley Fool.

You must come down the pub next year.

[hirschnathan] 26/4/2007 19:12

Why are you all talking £40m, I will be pretty upset, if thats all they can get.

[slapdash] 26/4/2007 18:56

WPP were pipped to the post with Double Click by Google... they are looking at somethign else in the U.S. apparently...

but in my view they would happily buy up IBG with some loose change of £40m or so... companies like IBG only come on the market every so often and everyone knows this is the future of advertising...

Slapper

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 18:45

Yes, I wonder who they will approach. Could even seem attractive to a publisher. As the travelsupermarket group is now said to be worth a billion, it shouldn't to much of a struggle for them to find the odd £40m for IBG. Of course, such a deal might not go down too well with other travel-related publishers using AF.

[aleman] 26/4/2007 18:45

Maz has shown great integrity in the past and dealt with a small band of shareholders with great consideration that has earned my trust. I should say that probably extends to the rest of the board but I have not had much dealing with them. I think they'd rather let Maz do the talking rather than let slip something they shouldn't, which is easy for a small company of tech-heads not proficient with the City yet. I must admit I have some doubts about events but past experience says they have earned the benefit of the doubt. I would have given them a better grilling myself otherwise. I thought they could have had it much worse under the circumstances. Most AIM investors have been burned badly by dodgy directors at some point.

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 18:29

Ah, yes, he raised some very good points too. Maz got a bit of a grilling, but all respect to him to publish the rns the day before so it could be discussed at the agm. I don't think many CEOs would do that.

Wonder who the chaps next to me were then? Was Baheid there? For some reason I thought he was going, but no word from him either.

[guythomas] 26/4/2007 18:23

i'll be on front row smoking big fat cigar

[aleman] 26/4/2007 18:18

Correct except LB was next to me. He raised several points. Your analysis above ties in with my thinking based on projected P/Es in the past. Some would argue IBG should be higher than the others having higher growth, and so more than 100% higher in share price. I think I came up with 65p in the past for a similar rating. It is interesting that a takeover at 60p might be earnings enhancing for some of them? (I still think a media company not in our sector could be a bidder so earnings enhancement would not be an issue as it would be more a strategic purchase to gain coverage and expertise in a sector that is growing faster at the expense of some of the more traditional ones.)

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 18:16

Spent the afternoon looking for EV/EBITDAs of other advertising networks to help me assess my IBG holding following Tuesdays meeting and have finally come up with a list, so thought I would share the research.

The data came from all sorts of different sources, and of course they change on a daily basis. Some of the data come from older broker notes, so have tried to adjust for the current market cap in those cases, but they may have different earnings forecasts now, so the figures could be inaccurate. Please DYOR and if anyone has more recent/better data I'd be grateful to see it.

2006 EV/EBIDTA (actual)
IBG - 16.1
Value Click - 21.6
Adlink - 22.9
Ad Pepper - 24.8
Tradedoubler - 28.5

2007 EV/EBITDA (expected)
IBG - 9.2
Value Click - 18.0
Adlink - 17.5
Ad Pepper - 16.8
Tradedoubler - 19.4

Overall, I think that these figures may give a reasonable indication of the sort of valuation IBG could command if taken-over. From 2006 figures, IBG looks to be undervalued by at least 30%, but as they are expected to grow EBITDA rapidly this year, they look a lot more undervalued based on 2007's projected estimates. Based on 2007 projected earnings, it looks like the share price needs to grow over 80% from here to get to the ratings that their peers are on. Maybe that is the sort of level Maz is looking for?

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 18:06

So where were you guys sitting in the AGM? Just trying to put faces to names. I guess you were the one at the front in the middle, aleman, discussing with Maz the fact that people dispose of shares just before and just after the end of the tax year? Was I sitting next to LB?

[valustar1] 26/4/2007 17:39

He was on his third pint when I left early!!

[aleman] 26/4/2007 17:30

Nope - I was last out of the pub. Not like him not to post after.

[reggieperrin] 26/4/2007 17:27

where is LB? you didn't leave him in the pub after the agm did you? i have not seen him post on here since !

[aleman] 26/4/2007 16:08

Tax related technical selling over then I presume. Could continue to rise on modest buying. LB's missus should be happy.

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 15:58

lifejacket time...all these scientists on board with a stash of viagra, trust them to have a bucket with a hole in it