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[smithys2019] 05/3/2020 17:55

Hamham, no one is going to claim to have a cure until it reaches a certain statistical standard in tests. Too much chance to destroy reputations with so much media attention. China as a closed society won’t have opened its doors to western pharma. The wider outbreak realistically has been around for what? 1-2 weeks? Due to timelines from symptomatic conditions, I doubt any meaningful trial will have completed yet, never mind statistical results collated. It’s too early. What what happens to the market once someone finds trialled medicine with a decent effectiveness. Shorters gonna get burned. I’m researching which pharma companies benefitted post Ebola. As you say few have climbed significantly meaning it’s a low risk punt.

[dround87] 05/3/2020 17:45

It's just the typical advert break you tend to get half way through a correction.

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 17:45

At the moment st9ck prices are going through the roof on development companies rather than existing drug companies.

[dround87] 05/3/2020 17:44

Yeah my shorts 2x leveraged on the FTSE100 with all my cash! Could wipe today's profit if it gaps up but I reckon I'll be OK watching the trading on IG.

[smithys2019] 05/3/2020 17:39

So, during my time involved in Ebola, other drugs with approval were used as a stopgap. The research into the particular Ebola strain during the crisis is still under investigation. However, the likes of HIV ARVs as with others were used and found to be highly effective, increasing Survivability from less than 5% was increased to over 65% in Africa and 90% in westernised healthcare systems. A huge improvement was also down to increased awareness of sanitation, hand washing and education around the handling of the deceased. As I’ve said before, humans are highly effective problem solvers. Call me naïve, but my bet is there is an existing drug out there that will be found in around the next 6-8 week timeframe that will act as a stop gap. Drugs approval is to do with side effects to humans. There are many anti vitals out there, the platinum standard will come much later.

Look at how previous similar situations have been handled. This is been treated like smallpox. Our knowledge and technology has advanced so much even since SARS.

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 17:22

There will be no drug approval via the standard routes for a couple of years, but this will be fast tracked which will reduce it to 6-9 months from discovery. When ever that is? And even then the failure rate for new drugs is very high at latter stages. ie efficacy.

[montyhedge] 05/3/2020 17:17

Problem is it could go longer, no vaccine for a year, so will we see a years earnings wiped out or just a couple of months.

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 17:16

These huge daily swings up but mainly down indicate this is bear market / recession territory. Usually only small steady climbs are bull indications, and these certainly aren't that.

[1 nhs] 05/3/2020 17:14

Interesting to hear what the head of Ryanair Mike has been saying.

All UK airlines will be loss making over the next couple of months, however Ryanair, British Airways and Easyjet will come out of this much stronger as will Loganair who have already take over 16 of Flybe's routes.



READ

The next two months will wipe out 2020 profits, and produce a loss for the year

We dread the rest of the year, knowing bankruptcy is just around the corner

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 17:12

Monty, really, next you'll be calling yourself no1. trader again.
Calling a short in this market isn't hard ffs.

[montyhedge] 05/3/2020 17:08

That's flattering seems I got the most followers on Advfn.

[montyhedge] 05/3/2020 17:06

Down 5.3% and you did not take a profit, I think your be ok, no bull will hold stock over the weekend in a long position.

[dround87] 05/3/2020 16:36

Got caught up in something and had to leave my short open! Fuuuuuuuck! Going to be a tense evening....

[loganair] 05/3/2020 16:27

Interesting to hear what the head of Ryanair Mike has been saying.

All UK airlines will be loss making over the next couple of months, however Ryanair, British Airways and Easyjet will come out of this much stronger as will Loganair who have already take over 16 of Flybe's routes.

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 16:06

Right, it just hit that now, reckon drop
..
I know nothing:)

[hamhamham1] 05/3/2020 16:04

My boring guess, Dow gonna drop away after this attempt at 26,500

[smithys2019] 05/3/2020 15:45

Full IATA report available here for technical investors ;)

hxxps://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/coronavirus-updated-impact-assessment

[cyberian] 05/3/2020 15:38

Best post today is 13715....very honest and easy to understand. The first 2 months figures this year and maybe 3 months will be quite appalling as Monty is indicating. Again watch this space on prediction that the worse strain is in rapid decline thank goodness, and the other more mild and less harmful. However, despite some Director buying over the last day or so at around the 450p mark sentiment remains very weak.

[1 nhs] 05/3/2020 15:27

Does that scenario inc the following

World no fly zone

Business banning all flying.

War.

Civil war

Unemployment at 36%

Millions dead

Local unrest

[montyhedge] 05/3/2020 15:26

IATA CEO said it, don't shoot the messenger, $113 billion hit to airlines worldwide.

[smithys2019] 05/3/2020 15:24

Montyhedge, the 113bn figure is the worst case of a number of scenarios ranging from 30 Bn for predicted spread up to 113 bn for zombie apocalypse. Please don’t distort the facts.

[montyhedge] 05/3/2020 15:12

Towards the end of day, bears close take profits, then in the morning new positions.