Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 24/1/2023 05:14

I see igp’s current PE is around 23 on forecasts of 9 per cent growth against industry standard of 32. It had got a bit ahead of itself a couple of years back being in the 40s. Should forecasts become upgraded this would make it even more of a bargain at current levels. Still quite a big if with headwinds this year but very encouraging none the less

[fillipe] 23/1/2023 11:45

earwacks
23 Jan '23 - 11:13 - 4229 of 4230

Yes, thanks - I thought it was a reiteration of a previous tp mention, although with good current conviction.

f

[daz] 23/1/2023 11:26

They do also say they could close further deals, which would further improve the results.
However, they don't say what the benefit of the strong dollar has been, which could be significant given the number of US contracts.

[earwacks] 23/1/2023 11:13

£1.25 was a target from the broker a couple of years back. I sold half my holding when it got somewhere near. Klaas said last year they got punished for one bad quarter who’s was still a rise most companies would give their right arm for. This is the beginning not the end of their turn around. Given that it’s profit all the way now, not excepting they may make another acquisition at the right price I’m not sure I’d put a target on this yet except that I would hope it can substantially beat the old one

[fillipe] 23/1/2023 10:41

I read of a 125p target price for IGP and Strong Buy.

f

[ianhamo] 23/1/2023 10:40

I can see the YE23 profits more than doubling to 1..5million, based on the market expectations of revenues of 11.3m increasing 7.5% = 0.85m + O.6m(forecast)= 1.45m, plus any further contract wins...maybe 2m profits!!?

[earwacks] 23/1/2023 08:00

Very good news. It is also a blatant case of news leak or insider dealing. Up 20 percent on the opening bell. It’s the follow on contracts that should keep the ball rolling. Particularly encouraging on the back of Dark’s update being a bit flat. I think we know why:)

[clanger66] 23/1/2023 07:15

And now we see why!

[ianhamo] 20/1/2023 18:52

Interesting trade just before today's close!RNS Monday???

[earwacks] 13/1/2023 09:45

Apparently it’s disrupted the disrupted service. Might as well sell off all the property and farm the delivery out to robots and other couriers which they already do to an extent

[ianhamo] 13/1/2023 09:11

Compromised password no doubt?

[earwacks] 13/1/2023 08:48

So why does the Royal Mail not have adequate protection against Ransomware attack?

[earwacks] 12/1/2023 00:33

It’s extraordinary. You would think that would be enough to shift the price up a couple of p. Sometimes you see a sell for a couple of thousand and the share price tanks. It is a game of patience. They must be building up a loyal following of highly important money no object clients. It is already a quite staggering list. I think they realise that not everyone needs bullet proof security of some complexity, so have worked out a range of cheaper options. Quite surprised they have not been bought out yet. Interesting that Darktrace have warned of headwinds. That’s not quite what I’ve heard in the trade. The problem for them is they are not prepared to offer systems that integrate with other firms products. They want control of the whole system. Klass bought quite a lot last year. He said they had one not so good quarter out of twelve and got slammed.

[ianhamo] 11/1/2023 20:04

Mr Hogarth is show his faith. Another 31k bought today. Seems to have gone under the radar.

[ianhamo] 03/1/2023 09:59

I'm wondering how long before the Authlogics acquisition produces a new contract?

[earwacks] 02/12/2022 16:09

Still seems to be that persistent 5000 block seller. Probably another Tim nice but dim fund manager raising cash for his less liquid stock. Looks like a long game here as with SwG. Wonder if we took a currency hit too. nearly every other small cap seems to have done courtesy of the short ill conceived Truss administration

[clanger66] 02/12/2022 11:11

Comforting to see some more director buying yesterday. Been very frustrating for a while this company but quietly confident that we're starting to see a turnaround. Some decent contract wins should propel the stock higher I hope. Huge operational gearing if they get it right.

[pyman] 29/11/2022 17:13

sales is what are needed ..

a small holding but have watched for over a decade-

like watching a glacier move....

[ianhamo] 29/11/2022 10:56

When/if the acquisition starts to produce decent cross selling deals, then the share price should move accordingly. I think any new deals will be almost all profit!

[zipstuck] 29/11/2022 10:46

I am very bhappy with thsi share

The KPI's for the aquisition include £3m in 2025 for ARR

Seem that the acquistion is proceeding well and partner view is positive.

They have £8m cash for more acquisitions

H1 include £250K acquistion costs in the P & L so wont be I n H2

ARR is 80% already according to webcast.

[earwacks] 29/11/2022 10:43

Totally respect your decision Robsy. Makes me wonder how it ever got to £1.20! Cybersecurity has been a very disappointing sector to how it was hyped up, even Dark. However this is clearly a quality company and I think Klass recognised that in itself had been a problem as you say too niche. I feel the company has moved to address that and would not expect its fortunes to change as rapidly as hoped for in this market. He certainly seems to have backed himself with the share purchasing. Mind you a lot do to little avail. They have a lot of ‘sticky’ contracts and they know they have to move on down to perhaps less sticky and maybe tighter margins to increase revenue. Last year was bad, this year could be worse. Depends a bit how far ahead the market looks. What else is out there. At the moment it seems every time a company releases improved results a distressed fund manager sells into the strength weak as it was.

[robsy2] 29/11/2022 09:05

I have sold my holdings in IGP. It just hasn’t delivered what I’d hoped for, so It was time to bite the bullet and move on.

I think they have suffered because they are so niche. They are or were very profitable but tiny and struggling to grow. I bought in originally in the hope that they would expand sales rapidly and transform the bottom line . It just hasn't happened yet anyway.


I went to the results presentation , read all the info and have reflected and it seems to me that while things could go well from here, there is a lot to do and it is by no means certain that they can do it.

In no particular order, here are the reasons why I am selling;
The core business is too niche: They don’t seem to be able to expand. The acquisition, mentioned above, is a tacit acceptance that the core business doesn’t seem to have any growth prospects. It all just seems very difficult.
I can’t see the detailed logic behind the acquisition. The commercial logic seems vague to me. I’m looking for 1+1=3 or 4 . This looks like 1+1=2.

Margins are now falling.
They claim strong revenue growth in their last report , but much of it was just sales that were not made to existing clients during the previous period!
If you look at their expectations for FY23 and FY24 , I see nothing very interesting. The stock looks very expensive even if they do meet expectations.
R&D tax credits are falling . This is material.
Even with a very strong US$, profits have been meagre. This effect is falling away now so that doesn’t bode well either.

I wish remaining holders well. This could get somewhere yet,so I will be keeping an eye on it but for the time being I am out.

[ianhamo] 26/11/2022 20:29

Could be our next contract!!?https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/INTERCEDE-GROUP-PLC-4003339/news/Intercede-50k-Customers-of-Revolut-affected-by-Phishing-Data-Breach-42404872/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoUMTQ1MjA2Nzk4Njc0NjczMTgzMTAyGmQ2NDc3MzQyY2U0ZGNjNmQ6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3KrcRPacpr_ZIEKWhkHf4G