Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[aphrodites] 28/1/2009 14:24

Taurus

One of the investment portfolio's we hold, which is focussed on small recovery stocks,has 350,000 IGP shares at an average price of 33.5p. Some as you will appreciate were regrettably bought at the higher levels of 69p! We have room to buy another 150k. and will do so around our average price or lower. When we compare IGP's performance against a lot of other shares it has not done too badly. And it is only a small part of this particular total portfolio.

Obsession or otherwise, read it as you will. We think IGP has very attractive growth potential and we are certain it will be taken out in the next 2 years above £1. We feel it would do better being part of a larger organisation with strong capital backing which could market the technology more widely. If that is at all possible.

We actually bought Barclays and Lloyds in size in another pension portfolio at 64p and 62p respectively this week and we would agree with you that bank shares have very good appreciation potential. Unfortunately we also bought RBS at 23p. after the results! But you cannot win them all. Good to see it recovering today!!

There have been a number of BB posters who have bought bank shares for yield purposes alone. I have always thought that a very bad practice. They must really be feeling the pain now and the losses will never be regained in many of their life times.

The interesting point about banks is what they do when interest rates fall to 0.5%. They will lose nearly all the profit margin they make on their current and low interest bearing accounts. But this will only be a temporary problem.

The strange thing about this market is that with all the gloom and doom around us I am quietly confident we have seen its bottom. The recovery in bank shares this week could well be the catalyst to better times. I know we have a long way to go but in our area in the south there are many SALE boards going up on houses. And it is still only January! Several estate agents tell me they are seeing the first signs of demand and two land agents also say things are warming up.

I post this on a day when FTSE is up 105 points.

What's the bet I will be thinking differently next week! :0)

Regards

Aphro

[igoe104] 28/1/2009 09:23

Looks like it wont be long before before the worlds biggest id project gets under way, id cards for billion indians, wouldn,t it be great to be involved in this project.

[aphrodites] 27/1/2009 13:11

Taurus

They say only invest what you can afford to lose!

The illiquidity of IGP is well known and if Igoe is right (how do da) has found out to his expense the cost of dealing in this share. Although I do not entirely concur that he has been the main cause of the fall in the share price. But who knows.

IGP is only part of one portfolio I run in small recovery shares and the need to sell is not a priority.

I anticipate the first signs of a recovery in the economy coming towards the end of this year and the recovery in bank shares this week is one part of the equation. I do appreciate one swallow does not make a summer!

I shall continue to add IGP to the portfolio as the price slips every 2/3p in tranches of 30/50k. I am confident we will not see these prices again in 2010.

[igoe104] 27/1/2009 12:49

A up-grading in the usa health data-service could be promising news for igp.

[igoe104] 27/1/2009 12:42

Not heared anything from gemalto for a while, not quite sure about this project, if we will be called upon.

[jailbird] 27/1/2009 11:14

igoe,

i had my suspicions that howdy be be selling too..since he does not post here anymore.

it makes sense.

[igoe104] 27/1/2009 11:09

AS to regarding to the seller of igp over the last 6 months aphro, this is my take on the situation.

it doesn,t take much working out, a certain holder (howdy do da) between feb and may took his holding over 200k thinking a take-over was going to happen, after it failed to happen, he ramped on every BB in desperation to try and find buyers so he could get out, but failed.

so between august to december hes dripped small amounts of stock at a loss until hes sold his complete holding.

My feeling is the seller is out now, and its only the odd folks( top slicing )selling after the rise.

We need a RNS with-in a month to help support the share price, and take the price beyond 40p, im also expecting it to happen.

[taurusthebear] 27/1/2009 10:38

"It is in markets like these that buying opportunities arise and I have purchased another 30,000 shares at prices lower than the 39p I bid the market last week.

APHRO - very true, Barclays at 51p on Friday afternoon springs to mind. However, buying banks or illiquid small caps with tiny turnovers at times like these is fraught with risk. Nice run up from 20p, though.

More risk, more reward, as they say, so good luck to you. I prefer cash-rich stuff on lower PEs, where the "E" stands a fair chance of being at least maintained throughout the downturn, and the cash acts as a buffer on the "P". :0)

[237gmoney] 27/1/2009 09:28

Some good news coming are way again...

BT get four more NHS trusts


Will cost the taxpayer £500m so how much will go to IGP for the ID cards to use the system????

[pyman] 23/1/2009 13:59

Thanks peeps - very interesting. Id have thought they d be better off going to competitors and flogging the stake as a platform to bid. They d get a fat premium if they found an interested party(not what I want I hasten to add).

[237gmoney] 23/1/2009 13:58

Nice to see our partner win a big contract from the UK government.



Will build their relationship for when they get the UK ID card which in turn will go to IGP.

[wjccghcc] 23/1/2009 10:37

True but you're talking about 10 million shares here. Will they really try and hedge the odd 10k?

[boadicea] 23/1/2009 09:47

WJC... - Reverting to your 983 -
"I think he means the holders sell some of their existing stock and then top up by converting the convertibles. Given the liquidity here, I'd think that's unlikely. Either they'll convert because they want to increase their stakes and see the exit as a takeover in 1-2 years, or they'll simply redeem at par if they want cash now IMHO."

If holders of the options can sell an equivalent (or any lesser) number of shares now, depending on what the market will absorb, they lock in whatever potential profit that shows at current share price as against holding to the option date.
Their short is fully covered by the conversion rights and they have their cash, or at least some of it, now. However, if the share price falls below the option price at any time up to the option date, they can instead settle the short at a lower cost in the market (again according to what the market will supply) for a further profit and take the cash option on any shares not then required for short settlement.

[aphrodites] 23/1/2009 08:21

pyman

WJC has hit the nail on the head but it might not be the holders of the convertibles that are selling.

It could be MM's selling believing:

(a) the price has run its course and sellers will come into the market.

(b)the convertible holders will convert and sell stock in the market to fill their shorts.

However, if IGP do not provide that outlet then whoever has shorted might find it very difficult to buy stock.

237 I do agree with your sentiments but the fact is there are always some who will trade anything in a market which they believe they will make a profit from.

But only a fool will run a big short in IGP.

[wjccghcc] 22/1/2009 14:34

I think he means the holders sell some of their existing stock and then top up by converting the convertibles. Given the liquidity here, I'd think that's unlikely. Either they'll convert because they want to increase their stakes and see the exit as a takeover in 1-2 years, or they'll simply redeem at par if they want cash now IMHO.

[237gmoney] 22/1/2009 14:19

i didnt think it was possible to short a stock with a 500 nms????

I guess you can still place a spread bet but with only 36m shares in issue can you really short IGP? what logical reason would you short a stock with such low liquidity - as when you have to buy back the margin wont be worth it...

[pyman] 22/1/2009 11:57

aphrodites- can you enlighten me re the possible short position: my take on your post is that a convertable holder has lent stock to a shorter who presumably will have to buy it back when the convertable holder is bought out? if they convert, then we will be diluted and the price will come down reflecting dilution. Is that the shorters play? I would nt short a tight stock like this- so many other more liquid stocks with bigger problems to play with.

[237gmoney] 22/1/2009 09:30

Ram - thanks for that post - you have highlighted that upto Sept 08 the GBP-USD exchange rate was an average $1.9 - £1. so that would equate to roughly $1.3m USD.

If we assume the same split or with the new contracts in the US with Lockheed the 6 months to 31 March the USD revenue may exceed $1.5m USD. the current exchange rate of $1.4 - £1 would therefore push IGP's revenue over the £1m barrier for the 6 mths to March 31 and with the BT contract on the NHS and the safesign thales contract and the two middle eastern contracts we could be heading for a very good year....

[jailbird] 22/1/2009 08:17

apd,

that is interesting...i never seen that before.

so i guess you get the rest as and when they get stock.