International Personal F... Share Discussion Threads

[robinnicolson] 05/9/2019 09:05

The CEO seems to perceive value in the business, buying £245,000 worth of shares yesterday, just before it went ex-dividend (nice 12.5% yield). He also bought an additional 200,000 shares at the beginning of last month.

[baoman1956] 12/8/2019 17:13

Some bad news lurking round the corner I suspect. Not informed just rather too familiar with that sort of chart!

[brucie5] 12/8/2019 16:54

Broken through the £1 barrier, so could fall faster to find capitulation. In the meantime according to Stocko it yields 12%. Hmm.

Any informed views?

[wad collector] 12/8/2019 16:36

Falling fast this afternoon , no news , I don't like the look of this....

[robinnicolson] 07/8/2019 10:46

The IC last week:

Quote: Somewhat bafflingly, Numis also has a 12-month price target of 316p on IPF shares, despite factoring in a "worst-case scenario...that Poland has to be closed".

[wad collector] 07/8/2019 09:40

There is a disconnect between a half yearly report that maintains an annual dividend of 12.4p and a share price that is about to become a penny share yielding 12.4%. Either this is an outrageous steal or impending further collapse. Which?

[robinnicolson] 01/8/2019 08:25

Reassuring to see the CEO buying a fairly decent amount.

[mtsblogs] 30/7/2019 12:00

The biggest asset of this company is its CEO and CFO. CEO is great and understands the delicate challenges IPF faces from regulators, he conducts very good presentations and makes sensible decisions. With him, I'm only concerned about his remuneration and the J-curve of Digital (more like a u-curve now, but will see). CFO has all the numbers on the spot, knows the finances of company inside-out and gives direct answers. Group's Financial Statements are a pleasure to read but one must be careful with lack of emphasis on £166 fine (and now - even higher because of Fx!).

Right now IPF is at 107p despite sterling falling below 1.22: should GBP recover, IPF will fall; should Brexit happen, IPF will fall due to regulations / local taxes / admin costs.

[wad collector] 30/7/2019 10:05

Suspect the last sentence is a little flattering of the management . Certainly is hard to be optimistic about Eastern European income. There is a potential recovery here but not one I would bet the farm on....

[mtsblogs] 22/7/2019 09:22

After careful consideration, I've decided NOT to invest in IPF (currently it is at 116p).
The regulator in Poland has hit IPF with £38M bill for two years of operations, but the total bill for *all* years is £166M, yet this is very briefly mentioned in reports.
If polish decision stands on appeal, the regulator would consider all years and full amount would be due.

Furthermore, UK State Aid decision by EU is likely to cost IPF another £15M and Sterling headwinds (or actual Brexit) probably would add another £60M in losses.
This brings the total figure for the worst-case scenario to -£240M. I estimate about 2/3 of this is priced-in, thus I expect the share price to dip to around 77-80p if risks don't improve.
It seems that despite excellent management, the company is preparing for this with highest coupon for years on its latest bonds...

[robinnicolson] 17/7/2019 11:55

SharePad data indicates that IPF has a forecast P/E of 4.1, forecast dividend yield of 11.2% (2.2x covered) and price/NAV of 0.6.
Four brokers have a buy rating and one a hold. Consensus target price 243p.
Is the market pricing in IPF pulling out of Poland completely, ever more onerous regulations in the other European countries and little to no growth in Mexico?

[wad collector] 17/7/2019 08:57

Approaching a new ATL. Depressing chart.

[eurofox] 02/7/2019 16:09

short squeeze at last

[eurofox] 28/6/2019 18:21

too much concentrated in Poland and now a major slice of their business is potentially non viable as a profitable concern - the bond interest rate said it all and its yield vs bond bid price is now even more dramatic.

you did well to get out of the bond at that price gliderpilot

[wad collector] 28/6/2019 18:10

Another one of my lemons looks to be heading down the drain. Hard to believe quite how badly this company is performing. Sure , can't allow for Governmental decisions , but good management anticipates and spreads risk..

[topvest] 28/6/2019 12:37

Bad news in Poland. This sounds like their Poland business might have to be significantly curtailed as the caps appear way too low to enable a viable business given impairment rates.

[gliderpilot2002] 28/6/2019 10:24

I sold the new bond at 99 this morning. I could see it going somewhat lower than this.

[baoman1956] 11/6/2019 10:17

Yep, I'd agree & didn't take up the offer. Still have the 6.125% 2020's and contemplating selling them. Unfortunately it's been difficult to get any sort of return without risk for quite a few years now.

[eurofox] 10/6/2019 18:02

I thought the interest rate on the latest bond said everything about the risk involved

[wad collector] 30/5/2019 21:31

If you look at the fundamentals it is a screaming buy. 7.7% yield covered 3x .
But , there are some uncertainties that make this a gamble. It could all go horribly wrong. I have held since its formation and made some profits but then watched my main holding drop further and further into the red. Don't bet the farm on it....

[nick rubens] 20/5/2019 09:57

I know the feeling. I bought around 176p recently. Some recent director buys and recent trading update seemed ok to me.

[wad collector] 20/5/2019 09:49

Don't like the chart - new low today. Hope this is not going down the plughole like most of my recent "investments".

[eurofox] 10/5/2019 18:43

yes, I have been adding at these levels - nice divi today

[wad collector] 10/5/2019 14:11

FWIW two director buys 15k and 20k .