International Personal F... Share Discussion Threads

[brattray] 27/4/2017 14:21

Q1 trading update on 3rd May.

[wad collector] 27/4/2017 10:25

New lows but at least paid out the 7.4 dividend last week.

[jeffian] 11/4/2017 10:11

Any views on the IPF1 corporate bonds - 6.125% maturing 2020 - which took a huge dive on the Polish news and have come back to 91p (one of the very few high yield bonds trading below par)? How bad is the risk with IPF? Besides the specific Polish legal issue, will Brexit make it difficult to sustain the model of high risk unsecured lending in the EU?

[nick rubens] 11/4/2017 08:22

Dividend looks likely to be cut IMO as they have mentioned it's already above their target pay-out rate of 35% of post-tax earnings. Lucky they didn't trim it this time, is how it reads to me.

[wad collector] 06/4/2017 19:06

The concern is not the current yield , but whether it will be sustained with an expensive court case and uncertain outcome .
I am not adding but not selling either....sitting on a paper loss atm.

[cjones123] 24/3/2017 15:52

8p divi, IPF goes ex divi on 13/04. Along with the interim divi of circa 5p, that's a smashing 8% yield based on today's share price perfect time to snap a bargain :).

[cjones123] 24/3/2017 15:51

8p divi, IPF goes ex divi on 13/04. Along with the interim divi of circa 5p, that's a smashing 8% yield based on today's share price perfect time to snap a bargain :).

[wad collector] 13/3/2017 16:50

I think you need to add charts and new updates if you want to supercede the other one.....just saying.

[cjones123] 04/3/2017 12:07

New International Personal Finance PLC (LON:IPF) Rating From Numis Indicates Stock As Potential Buy
By Ashley Brown on Friday, 03 Mar 2017 12:02 PM

Following an update released by analysts at Numis on Thursday the broker has now set a ‘Buy’ rating on shares of International Personal Finance PLC (LON:IPF) with a price target of 238.

On Thursday Numis reiterated its target for shares of International Personal Finance PLC as ‘Buy’ recommending a target price of 238 for investors; potentially meaning there is an increase of 48.75% from International Personal Finance PLC’s share price of 160.

[cjones123] 01/3/2017 19:57

Here is an interesting article I found on Motley Fool:

Why this value stock could double despite shares crashing 10% on results

Peter Stephens | Wednesday, 1st March, 2017

Buying any stock following a double-digit fall in its share price may be seen as risky. Clearly, there has been negative news flow either regarding the stock or the industry in which it operates. However, for long-term investors it may also present an opportunity. That’s especially the case where the company in question trades on a low valuation and has upbeat forecasts over the medium term. A difficult year Falling over 10% on Wednesday was lending specialist International Personal Finance (LSE: IPF). Its shares declined by such a large amount following the release of its full-year results, which showed a fall in pre-tax profit of around 20%. This reflected lower home credit profit and higher investment in IPF Digital, which was partially offset by positive foreign exchange adjustments. Customer numbers decreased by 2% and while the amount of credit issued rose by 8% and revenue increased by 1%, the company’s overall performance was disappointing. IPF faced regulatory challenges in Europe, particularly in Poland. Performance in its Mexican home credit business was below its original expectations. Furthermore, it expects the competitive and regulatory environment to remain challenging in its major markets, which means its financial performance could come under further pressure in 2017. Upside potential Although IPF is expected to record a further fall in earnings of 3% this year, its outlook for 2018 is much more positive. Its investment in IPF Digital and its Mexican business is forecast to deliver a rise in earnings of 11%. This has the potential to create a step change in investor sentiment, with the market likely to warm to what could prove to be a successful turnaround. Despite this potential for improved performance, IPF trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.5. This is low on an absolute basis, but also when compared to its historic average P/E ratio from the last four years. During that time, the company’s rating has averaged 11.8. Assuming it is able to meet its forecasts in 2017 and 2018, a reversion to its historic average P/E ratio would see the company’s shares rise in price by around 132%. While this may sound optimistic, even factoring-in a margin of safety means IPF could prove to be a strong performer over the medium term. Outlook Of course, other lending companies offer more stable performance than IPF. For example, Provident Financial (LSE: PFG) has recorded double-digit earnings growth in four of the last five years and is expected to deliver growth in its net profit of 5% this year and 9% the year after. As such, it seems to have a lower risk profile and may prove to be a less volatile stock to own than IPF.

[cjones123] 01/3/2017 19:53

Today's bad results were expected anyways, so no major surprises there. 7% divi is not bad at all in my book. This is a good business at the core of it, which is still reporting profit. Definitely a buy at the current SP

Also with 2M shares bought and only 1M sold today, this is bound to bounce back to at least the 175 mark over the next few days. IMO the expected bad results were already factored in the SP, as it has been holding up nicely @ around 164 mark.

[nick rubens] 01/3/2017 09:46

Yes cheers wad, Not sure I want to catch a falling knife at the moment, so will await developments on the corporate front.

Hard to believe the shares were once trading around 500p. Will need some strong earnings growth to see that again.

Final dividend will be paid, but I reckon it will be cut later if earnings don't recover.

"The full year dividend of 12.4 pence per share represents a total payment equivalent to approximately 41% of post-tax earnings for the full year 2016 which is above our target pay-out rate of 35%."

[wad collector] 01/3/2017 09:32

Allaince news reckons it is the weaker home credit . ( Poland Lithuania isn't really new news I suspect)

[nick rubens] 01/3/2017 09:15

from the accounts

"Poland-Lithuania delivered profit before tax of £56.2M in 2016 reflecting a £20.8M decrease in underlying profit offset partially by a positive FX movement of £8.0M."

"As noted in the regulatory update of this announcement, the Ministry of Justice in Poland published a draft bill in December 2016 proposing a further tightening to existing non-interest cost of credit legislation introduced in March 2016. We await an update on this matter and will inform the market in due course as to how our Polish business is likely to be affected by any changes that may be enacted."

May explain today's share price fall.

Anyone see it different? cheers NR

[wad collector] 15/2/2017 14:05

It's a long way back up but making progress in the last 6 weeks .The worst behind the sp?
I am 20% up on my most recent buy but way off my buying average. I will wait.

[wad collector] 09/2/2017 11:36

Poland is going to sit as a dampener on the share price here until more clarity ; hard to know how much is factored into the price now . The brokers views are pretty slow to update , I suspect they are scared on sticking their nose out. Numis target 236p and JPM reduced theirs to 180p but I suspect they have little hard data to make these guesses.

[carer] 13/1/2017 16:56

Have taken a small profit within a few days. The leaving of the FD may have something to do with Financial mess the company was in in Poland, going back to 2008. It is good to see today's rise , so I could take some profit. This is no doubt a very high risk play due to possible back taxes. If it became true, then share will tank significantly. do not know the reason for today's rise, has somebody tipped the share?

[gliderpilot2002] 13/1/2017 16:08

I do not know what the outcome on the tax will be however if it is payable that would be very serious indeed for IPF. The tax would still be payable if the company withdraws from Poland. The ORB bond has fallen to a selling price of about 86 this week reflecting the increasing risks. Year end results are out 1 March. Some of the assets on the balance sheet like deferred tax only have value while the group is a going concern. The group has yet to succeed in recruiting a new FD. I am not convinced the bad news is over.

[carer] 12/1/2017 12:55

I guess the company can withdraw from Poland and there will not be any tax paid, resulting in a lose-lose situation. Poland must be running out of money by targeting such a small company. IPF will survive due to its geological spread. it does seem that other parts of world are doing well. The share has been punished excessively. risks may be worth a play, in my opinion.

[topvest] 06/1/2017 09:34

Well the regulatory changes were bad enough and now they raise the fact that the tax position is uncertain going all the way back to 2008. Bit of a nightmare run that they are having!

[wad collector] 06/1/2017 08:47

I just added a few at 162 , I suspect that the uncertainty surrounding this RNS is an overreaction , but I am just guessing.

06 January 2017

This announcement contains inside information

IPF to appeal decision of Polish Tax Chamber

International Personal Finance's home credit company in Poland, Provident Polska, is to appeal a decision received from the Polish Tax Chamber (the upper tier of the Polish tax authority) on 5 January 2017 with respect to its 2008 financial year. The decision involves a transfer pricing challenge relating to an intra-group arrangement with a UK entity together with a challenge to the timing of taxation of home collection fee revenues.

We strongly disagree with the interpretation of the tax authority having received legal opinions from leading advisors as to the strength of our case. In addition, during a previous tax audit by the same tax authority, both items were challenged and the company's treatment of them was accepted as correct. Provident Polska's treatment of these items has not changed since then.

We will appeal the decision to the District Administrative Court and pay the amounts assessed (c. GBP20M comprising tax and associated interest) which is necessary in order to make the appeal. The payment of this sum is not a reflection of our view on the merits of the case and accordingly it will be recognised as a non-current financial asset in our group accounts. As we believe our case to be very strong, no provision will be recognised against this asset and there will be no charge to the income statement as a result of this decision. We also intend to initiate a process with the UK tax authority aimed at ensuring that the intra-group transaction is not subject to double taxation but is taxed in accordance with international tax principles.

We expect to receive the same decision shortly from the Polish Tax Chamber in respect of the 2009 financial year which would give rise to a substantially similar liability to that for 2008. 2010 remains under audit and all subsequent years remain open to future audit.

International Personal Finance and Provident Polska do not adopt aggressive tax strategies as evidenced by Provident Polska's average effective tax rate since 2008 which exceeds the Polish corporate income tax rate of 19%.

[bulltradept] 06/1/2017 08:12

Buy at a £1?

[r ball] 06/1/2017 07:47

I bought these December 14 when the Polish issue was first flagged and sold a day later. Always interesting to see how things played out. You can play the short term movements but not the trend...