Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[tallprawn] 26/5/2019 19:04

I'll keep the updates coming - Today isn't fully clear as Serum stock was topped back up to 5000 units at some point during the night. Good news as we're now not going to run out today/tomorrow.I'll post another update in the next couple of days.

[stimulationengineer] 26/5/2019 17:06

And me for two.

[coldspring] 26/5/2019 16:38

I, for one, appreciate these updates tp.

[tallprawn] 25/5/2019 22:01

For those interested - A really big volume day for ST on DTC today.The following stock movements have been tracked since 10pm last night -Serum (Bundle) 985 units £29,550Protan 117 units £3,500Coconut Mist 133 units £4,000Tan/Tone Oil Triple Pack (All 3 Options) 60 units £1,800Body Glow Triple Pack 143 units £2,150Protect and Glow Bundles £1,400Serum singles 31 units £930Total £43,330Serum is absolutely flying off the shelves, there are now only 782 units left. These could well be gone by tomorrow night if the next 24 hours gets close to today's run rate.That will be 5000 units sold in 10 days at £30 each. £150k in very quick time.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/5/2019 18:06

Not sure about Prolong stock writedown. If manufacturer at fault, would have thought cost could be reclaimed. Might be easier said than done though if a Chinese supplier. 622 units sold ($186,000 retail value) during short two-month launch period (May-June 18), before switch fault was detected. That's going some. IDP was in discussions with a large manufacturer to start production during the first half of new FY (reducing cost of each unit by more than 40% compared to current model). Assuming this went smoothly, it would have ensured gross profit margins were increased considerably once marketing restarted. Company was confident of a successful relaunch prior to Christmas 2018. Which is why I still think this could be a significant contributor, with a relatively short payback.

[tallprawn] 23/5/2019 14:55

Final couple of points I should have included -Stock at the end of FY18 for Prolong was £74k so that could be the potential write down for this year. (FY19)It's also worth noting HC paid just over £1m to buy Prolong - It definitely needs to pay its way in FY20 to recoup the outlay.

[gleach23] 23/5/2019 12:37

Very true lord loads. I was looking earlier today at the comments on Prolong in the Interims -

"Prolong has performed strongly and is making excellent progress."

"The relevant regulatory approvals for Prolong are being finalised and once received, we expect to launch the device in UK and Europe this year. In addition, the Company expects to have the regulatory clearances necessary to sell the products in India and China this calendar year."

"We have an exciting and innovative life sciences portfolio which is in early stages of revenue generation but we expect it to make a positive contribution to the Group's performance this year."

No reported trades so far today which is indicative of the recent lack of PI interest here (along with the absence of usual muppets on this BB) but there are several opportunities to surprise on the upside imo. Fingers crossed.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/5/2019 12:17

Don't overlook Prolong. From memory, it was selling quite well before the switch defect came to light. Believe this was fixed some time ago. At $299 & with a very high GM%, this could significantly boost FY revenues & profit.

[kemche] 23/5/2019 10:08

connor, I suspect Roots is a plodder providing a useful contribution in the range of products that IDP have on offer. In the broad base of products it would provide a useful income stream.

What is happening with Stevie K lest we forget?

Serum seems to be a runaway success from the anecdotal evidence.

[connor23] 23/5/2019 10:01

I think a range between £13-£13.5m seems sensible to me Jam, assuming Finncap were not completely off the mark. I am a bull though! The anecdotal sales evidence (DTC monitoring done by some holders, stats released by IDP and Boots in regards to sales, position in bestseller lists) seems to support this.Did IDP/broker expect Serum to be such a hit? Is there potential upside there? My question would be around Roots as I don't have any 'feel' for how that is performing.

[tallprawn] 23/5/2019 09:36

It's cheap enough at these levels let alone anything less - Any buys under a quid are an absolute steal. Meanwhile - Just over 2500 Serum stock movements now via DTC in the last 6 days which is an indicative £75k. No reduction in demand since it was restocked.

[kemche] 23/5/2019 09:34

DATAIT - makes Teddy look positively sane.
Have it on permanent filter.
Life is far too short for that kind of idiocy.

[carlo sartori] 23/5/2019 09:31

Because Datait wants to buy in!!!

[jam4u2] 22/5/2019 23:06

why datait?

[datait] 22/5/2019 13:51

Not looking good here at all folks should see 60p soon.

[tallprawn] 22/5/2019 08:15

Hi Jam, I think we'll be on or around £13m for FY19 personally. What excites me is that in order to hit his, H2 will have delivered circa £9m. The resurgence of DTC for Skinny Tan has been great to see and also the successful launch of Boots is material also.Within the potential £9m for H2 is 4 months trade Boots only. Annualising for FY20, the Boots benefit and also DTC should allow us to kick on to the £15m-£16m range. We also have the introduction of Charles & Lee into the UK and Europe shortly. £15m-£16m doesn't really factor in any major contribution from Prolong or Growlase also. If one of these takes off, it could be a lot, lot better.Buying now at the current share price lows and holding for 12 months should provide all investors a substantial gain. Bring on that update next month or whenever it arrives.

[jam4u2] 21/5/2019 10:14

Its been a while since I posted here but returning now as the posting seems to have gotten a bit more sensible. I have to say with me expecting some kind of update coming before end of June that I am feeling somewhat confident for the next year here in IDP. I'm not expecting it to all be roses, but certainly I am hopeful the headlines coming out IDP over the next year will make for good reading.

Whats, everyone's thoughts on the update for year end? Based on the Finncapp revised market expectations which are at £13.2, but with the H1 update and me being cautious I'd be happy with anything north of 12m and certainly, I am hopeful of 12.5m.

Thoughts?

[doc robinson] 20/5/2019 21:55

Cannot wait for the update on current trading , staff in my local Boots store confirmed the new products are selling very well especially the wonder serum .

[tallprawn] 20/5/2019 21:19

The DTC Serum bundle stock has now reduced by 1650 units since Friday am. At £30 per unit, this is £49,500.Based on this run rate, there is 7-8 days stock left.

[connor23] 20/5/2019 08:24

Thanks TP. Weather forecast looks pretty settled in the run up to Bank Holiday wkd/half term. Need to keep pushing the offers into this.Roots is an interesting one. Hard to say how strong the performance has been so like you I will be intrigued by the figures and the commentary in upcoming updates. This product is one I can see performing strongly in international markets so will be good to hear more on those plans as well (I appreciate the focus has had to be UK and ST this HY)

[tallprawn] 20/5/2019 07:28

Nice little run on Serum overnight. Stock count has now reduced by 1305 units since 6am Friday morning so potentially just over £39k on this now.

[tallprawn] 19/5/2019 20:34

SP - Thanks for the reply, I've been watching ST a lot more closely than Roots to be honest. It'll be interesting to see what the FY numbers are for the range. I was hopeful that Tesco's would be contributing over £500k, let's see what the actuals are - Not long to wait.Ref the FY performance, my view is the same as yours. IDP would have had to release news by now if it was going to be a miss by more than 5%. I think FY revs will be £13m+ minimum. Profit should also be strong given the high number of £30 bundles sold through DTC since Jan.Ref Serum - Since it was restocked on Friday morning, DTC stock levels on the bundle have counted down by 1145 units. That's £34,340 of potential turnover in 3 days on one product in the range which is absolutely terrific.I'm more convinced than ever that we're badly undervalued at these levels.