Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[connor23] 10/3/2018 18:04

Surely it's important to hear bear points, especially from someone who has/is a bull of the stock? I believe the long term story is intact, but it is my attachment to the story that prevented me trimming my holding after the half yearly results so I welcome anything that makes me consider my holding, particularly after the recent setback!

[divinessence] 10/3/2018 17:59

Spot on beetroot. I am really very disappointed with Croas particularly trying his misleading tricks now and hoping to pick up shares on the cheap. Not much moral/ethics left.

IDP will rise from the ashes, just need to be a little patient now.

[connor23] 10/3/2018 17:50

The market may be limited in the UK, but there is still market share out there to be taken imo. Getting into Boots is the next step on extending the growth cycle of ST for me.Clearly breaking into new markets is another route to achieving this. I think there is a risk of being overly negative on the strength of the SD decision not to make a larger order.That being said, I also see 11.5-12m as something we should be hitting this year given the progress on product development and distribution.

[divinessence] 10/3/2018 17:45

beetroot I agree. Croas has bailed out and hence his posts have gone negative. How can he say it doesn't matter if IDP sign up other distribution channels as DTC is there to order? This is simply a false statement and disinformation by Croas. Sorry but I lost respect for you. There are intelligent people here who can interpret what the likes of you Croas and others are trying to do. Shame on you all.

The business model is strong, had a hiccup and recovery will be put in place. IDP will be stronger as a result.

[beetroot juice] 10/3/2018 17:38

Ever heard of an IMPULSE BUY? Thought not.

"An impulse purchase or impulse buying is an unplanned decision to buy a product or service, made just before a purchase. One who tends to make such purchases is referred to as an impulse purchaser or impulse buyer."



Mrs Jones is in Boots and past her walks a Gorgeous Tanned Lady. She thinks, she looks good. I will get some self tan, Maybe THAT Skinny Tan.. OHHH its not here, i will buy this other Tanner instead.

Just one example.

SUPERDRUG are now Hobnailing Skinny tan in its biggest Market. Ie The UK. That is the Issue, not Skinny tan has reached its zenith.

[jam4u2] 10/3/2018 17:24

That's the point - Fake tan market is limited. Limited by target, limited by age, limited by skin colour, and finally limited to SD as a distribution channel. And so therefore growth was always going to be limited and slow down at some point.

Whether its poor or not I'll let you and each investor decide on that.

Personally, I think the company have already told us it wont hit 13.9m and have prepared the market for not hitting 12m IMO. The share price fall reflects more than that imo. If you really think it will hit £12m then great, but then the share price fall is well overdone.

As I said, it matters not, the market has given its verdict. I believe the worst is done now and so its about focus (for IDP), consolidation of position and where IDP go from here into next FY.

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2018 17:03

If they don't hit 12m that would be poor and mean skinny tan growth is only 25-35% when the comparators are favourable ie last Jan SD only had 11 products , this Jan 26.ST was rolled out to Asos, Feelunique , look fantastic and the professional range rolled out in April iirc. What happens when ST sales are Like for like - no growth??

[jam4u2] 10/3/2018 14:58

Croas, important to identify the difference between 'need' and expect. IDP actually needed 13.9m this year. They have confirmed they wont hit that.

For me, I do not think they will hit £12m. I have been proven right with H1 numbers. proven right with over-estimations on F/Y numbers and I suspect £12m is a 'stretch' target for IDP now. Regardless, what's important to understand is the 'why'.

IDP are gearing up for the next leg of growth by going into other chains and territories. SD dont like that and so they are not committing to additional orders. Whether thats because they are using it as leverage or not (to get further exclusivity) matters not. What that does mean and what does matter, is that for IDP and for those of us shareholders who are still holding, is how will IDP grow going forward.

There is a Q mark around whether they will need further funding or not. I imagine they will be good for a few months yet anyway. DTC revs are on track we are told which means they will be turning over well over £500k a month. Thats what the number was back in Sept last year - I reckon its significantly higher. Add in that we were told they had over £2m at the hlaf year report stage then I personally think they are fine for funding, assuming they slow down spend on launches which is what they most certainly look like they have done (and rightly so)..

ProLong is being launched in April or May and that will allow further revenues in what is a pretty big market, and free up cash tied up in assets that the company have already spent. This will add additional upside revenues.

However, all the upside for me is now in next financial year and IDP will become a star then and all those that have sold out will likely return. I will likely try accumulating some more in coming weeks. Like beetle. I am relaxed. If it goes down I will buy in and average down. If it goes up then i'm happy too. For me, this was always an 'investment' and I like HC and team. Yes, they have been on a steep learning curve, but I think they are building a sustainable business model and as Haris has pointed out to me - he holds over 40% of the company and is completely aligned to fellow shareholders (a point I already knew).

In Haris I trust.

[connor23] 10/3/2018 14:11

I do wonder if Roots will go straight into supermarkets next FY. I think that makes sense personally.Getting into Boots will be important for the brand and trying to get into the beauty market / category imo. I'm cautiously optimistic this will drive growth quite strongly, at least while Roots establishes itself. I think HC thought he could rely on Superdrug to do this for this FY, which may have been a bit naive in hindsight! I do however agree with a previous poster that there is a high execution risk here.

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2018 13:49

I don't think the long delayed US rollout of Skinny Tan will happen this season . It's too late for the tanning season and would be too expensive . The best to hope for is the long delayed relaunch of US DTC with the new branding and possible launch into travel hubs or a Department store or two.

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2018 13:24

Growth in H1 was 31% and with Roots selling well should be higher than that in H2 - say 40% . But that would suggest Skinny Tan growth is slowing.Most UK women know about it and know where to buy it , it's not new anymore , even though it's not in Boots they know they can get it through DTC or Feelunique etc .the Irish market can get it in Boots, Superdrug, McCabes and Lloyd's. There is also increased competition - look at Utan and Tone - notice the word Tone. Growth will continue as I believe the whole self tanning market is growing but at 10-25% Roots though will grow by triple digits for at least a year or two but from a very low base. I estimate Roots will contribute 500k to the years sales but more like 1500k next year especially if the rollout to supermarkets and compete directly with Plantur39 and Alpecin

[connor23] 10/3/2018 12:47

Hi Croas. Always interesting to hear your view. So do you believe if IDP were to secure a deal with Boots those would be the growth rates we would be looking at for the foreseeable? I was thinking a bit higher tbh, although I appreciate rolling out to Boots would mean cannibalising some existing sales. The unknown factor is the US rollout but based on our lack of success stateside I'm discounting that for now. I reinvested in Oct for Roots, so agree the strategy should focus on that product. Growth looks strong there and I believe the product to be superior to competitors in this area so I remain positive on the company's future. Will be interesting to see what happens when exclusivity ends in July...

[croasdalelfc] 10/3/2018 11:20

The minimum sales they need is 12m not 10mLast year H1 3.18m plus H2 5.7mThis year H1 4.2m plus H2 5.8m would be no growth in second half - frankly that would be a disaster So the minimum is 12m - 4.2m plus 7.8m or 36% growth in H2 Peak growth of Skinny Tan has gone and 10-20% a year is realistic . IDP should focus on Roots which should not attain peak growth for several years . They also need a 3rd product - either Stevie K or Prolong to push annual growth up to 40-50% and justify a PER of 20-25

[teddy boy1] 10/3/2018 09:26

Disagree, still a lot of value in this company.Give them time and they will prove all those doubters wrong!,Ignore the so-called views of a lot of the posters on this forum.It is not what they really believe! It is in their selfish interest to try and talk the price down!

[bookbroker] 10/3/2018 06:25

Needs to be about 50p to reflect the risks!

[bookbroker] 10/3/2018 06:24

Don’t you mean walk before you crawl, but let’s face it, this one has not even climbed out the pram!

[teddy boy1] 09/3/2018 23:16

This company still has terrific prospects and as long as they do not try to run before they can walk they will be fine. The share price now represents very good value and hence I am expecting a nice upturn on Monday.

[divinessence] 09/3/2018 23:04

remarkom you still here and holding?

[beetroot juice] 09/3/2018 20:58

Talking to Me?