Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 09/3/2018 07:30

Agree melody,
Hope it bounces for holders today.

[melody9999] 09/3/2018 07:27

I also have a long term hold in BOO and went long here late yesterday. The share price fall here is overdone based on an RNS where shortfalls are seemingly due to timing of orders - which is beyong IDP's control - rather than a suggestion that growth is slowing. And no financial mis-management. Expect share price recovery today.

[che7win] 09/3/2018 07:26

I'm afraid he shot himself in the foot when he did interviews after H1 stating his confidence in meeting full year revenue.

He also said he liked to under promise and over deliver.

I'm afraid he lacks experience, it may bounce to 150p from here.

I sold out a while back at a loss based on the chart, so haven't been posting.

[ayl30] 09/3/2018 07:07

Perhaps the market does not regard it as world class. Look at BOO trading well below previous levels, just the same for them. These cos have a honeymoon period of high valuation then mkt loses love for them until they start to drive profit growth. Still hold BOO but not this one

[divinessence] 09/3/2018 07:01

Growth in second half is expected to be very strong. IDP has a bright future and the current valuation of £18m is laughable for a world class business. I am shocked the way the market has plummeted the share price In 3 months should head back to £3.00+. Buy and Hold IMHO.

[kemche] 09/3/2018 06:47

It seems to me this entire debacle is of his own making - there is a time to just STFU! We had the fiasco of the fundraising where I suspect he had let it slip to SCSW that such a thing may be in the offing and the latter undermining the whole thing by their "reduce" advice. Then the continued slippage in deadlines. The overall "giving it large" in various interviews sets himself up for a fall.

I still believe there is a very viable business here if only the CEO can keep himself in check. Underpromise and overdeliver is the way to the city's heart. Someone, whether it be the broker or the PR firm, needs to have a sharp word in HC's shell like. He is acting more like a liability than an asset that he is supposed to be.

Keep the hubris in check else the inevitable will happen.

[matt] 09/3/2018 06:34

Is it possible the DTC is taking custom from SD?

[ihatemms] 09/3/2018 05:59

The strange thing is Hc is quoting signif % sales increases for Roots and Skinny tan over the past 12 weeks which tells me that sales are doing very well but the overall top line summary is that we are below forecasts. Seems inconsistent.

Roots sales are going extremely strongly - Its top of the charts on SD. This should be more than compensating for shortfall in Skinny Tan.

[connor23] 08/3/2018 23:29

I thought it was interesting that they mentioned the lower orders 'despite the brands continued growth'. I wonder if that was a hint that they were blindsided by SD? Either that or management have been overly optimistic in what they were expecting SD to take. For such a close retail partner I find it all a bit strange.

[jam4u2] 08/3/2018 22:54

I re-read the RNS and it was 'cleverly' worded in one part where he he refers to significant order expected. That order clearly was the order from SD and never came.

Re revs, I agree they should have guided on revs too. They did say "The Group expects revenues to be substantially higher than last year." revs last yer was £8.9m and so I would take substantially higher to mean at least another £1m, which gives us £10m+.

I have always said I could not see how they would meet 13.9m, especially without the new product launches. But they have taken far too long with ProLong IMO. Over £1m is tied up in that product and IDP havent even been able to get it to market yet and it must now be at least 12 months since they had it. I'm tempted to offer my services to deliver their strategy...

[connor23] 08/3/2018 22:45

Jam, would have been helpful if they guided us on revenue! Perhaps they just don't know yet...Whole rns was a bit clumsy tbh.Agree they have failed to manage expectations at half year which is partly why the share price took a pounding today. What happened to all the visibility for H2 that was talked off? Frustrating...

[connor23] 08/3/2018 22:39

ST exclusivity runs out Feb 19. Roots July 18 I believe.

[jam4u2] 08/3/2018 22:39

Yes, agree Haris hasnt covered himself in glory here. I like the guy but not great form tbh, that just 3 weeks ago you are quoted as saying you will meet market expectations and then coming on to say 3 weeks later - you will miss them. Even more poor and the facts back this up is to say that profits will be the same as last year - surely they knew this at time of Half Year report, or that at least owing to investment in developing new products in H1 that profits wouldnt be met. (Given they would have known what was spent in H1).

More concerning is the consistent slippage in product launches.

However, I do think sell-off is overdone. From today's rns it is fair to say that revs will be over £10m and I suspect I have been right all along by saying I am expecting closer to £12m revs. The profit is staying the same as they have been re-investing in new product development lines which I am OK with. But Haris shouldnt have IMO tried to b/s the market into something that is relatively easy to see. ie. too many product launches require money invested, time away from growing etc. Better to be open and transparent IMO.

Also, please, please please provide more transparency re product development and launches. I have been reading for ages now that they are in talks .....

IDP - still a story in the making, just not clear to see how long!

[teddy boy1] 08/3/2018 22:33

I have been out of IDP for a couple of weeks now having decided that the share price would only "drift" for the next few months.Good move with hindsight! However ,I still believe in this company aNd their marketing methods .The share price is now in bargain territory and that is why I dipped my toe in the water again last thing this evening.I shall now be watching the share price carefully and looking out for any updates on Boots,etc

[carlo sartori] 08/3/2018 22:29

Does anyone know when the Spuerdrug exclusivity finished?

[connor23] 08/3/2018 21:51

Definitely not been fun as a holder! The core products are still growing strongly which makes the SD issue somewhat perplexing. Hopefully the broker might be able to shed some more light on it.The SD growth strategy has obviously stalled so the company now needs to expedite the rollout to other retailers.Management have blotted their copybook now so will need to regain the trust of the mkt. And shareholders!

[bookbroker] 08/3/2018 21:08

A quid tomorrow!

[the patient investor] 08/3/2018 19:01

WHAT!!!???

I used to be a great fan here, I am shocked

[twistednik] 08/3/2018 18:55

"lower than expected orders placed by Superdrug "

"we expect our full year results to be below our earlier expectations,"

This is a growth stock with negative cashflow and was rated on a large PE mulitple.

Why is it a surprise to investors when price drops by a third following the above news?

[bookbroker] 08/3/2018 18:41

I do not why investors are surprised, this is an opaque business dependent on Superdrug and its own mail order distribution in a very competitive market against global brands. The company has to spend ever increasing sums to drive sales, and with a tiny market cap. It is going to be an uphill struggle fo ethics company.

[eastbourne1982] 08/3/2018 17:37

It was probably never worth over £4 though so it works both ways.

[mannymif] 08/3/2018 17:25

ihatemms...totally agree. Feels like some institutional money has pressed the exit button and in illiquid markets has caused an over reaction. The share price has dropped by 70% since the high of last year...70%! Has this company really done that badly in less than a year to warrant that kind of share price retracement?

[ihatemms] 08/3/2018 16:57

Yes price action is very strange. Sales are growing by 60% in h2. Given that Roots is expanding week by week at a growing rate overall growth for H2 could be more than 60%. This gives sales of circa £13m for the year v 13.8m for the forecast. This means an extra £2m of gross margin compared to last year will be invested in marketing and new product/market launches to further grow the business for 2018/19.

The 30% drop in price seems absurd and the whole business is now valued at £18m - this surely can't be right?

[divinessence] 08/3/2018 16:42

Something really strange gone on today? share price should not have dropped by 30%. The RNS is nothing like how its been interpreted. Agree something else is afoot.