Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[mangal] 27/12/2007 16:15

Looks like a clear breakout- how far will it go?

[enami] 27/12/2007 15:57

Yes - Harbinger bought some more, now over 25%. Goldman Sachs also buying now over 5%

[phillis] 27/12/2007 15:48

Bubbling up nicely

[enami] 21/12/2007 12:23

Inmarsat Spectrum agreement with MSV

A really positive RNS. Results gap from 8 Nov closed with a chart breakout.

Target 558 ish

[enami] 20/12/2007 18:41

Again Harbinger buying another 2% of the company this week, they have 23.3% now.

[enami] 13/12/2007 10:34

Harbinger still buying, another RNS today up to 21.2% now.

Very positive bulluish engulfing candle yesterday and closed the director sales gap from a couple of weeks ago.

[wonder boy] 30/11/2007 13:36

When does the cash run out?

[enami] 30/11/2007 10:29

Harbinger buys another chunk on that dip - they have 18.1% now.

[jugu] 27/11/2007 12:48

Directors received shares for free, have very little interest in providing
extra value. Case of fill your pockets.

[bigbobjoylove] 27/11/2007 11:42

Aren't they allowed to take profits like the rest?? Done a good job and just announced record q3 profits. Should have filled your boots on the overreaction. happens all the time these markdowns on director selling, easy ££, level 2 looks good if you're long.

[enami] 27/11/2007 10:50

Director sales not supportive but 3 on the same day I assume means that they are entering the closed period before results. They were announced 27 Feb this year.

[wad collector] 27/11/2007 09:51

Those were some serious director sales yesterday ; not a vote of confidence , especially as the price was significantly off the recent peaks.Presumably why we are down 40.
The Nat West broker was right after all.

[enami] 09/11/2007 08:31

So these results for Holdings Q3 look pretty good plus there was a contract win with European Space Agency for Alphasat project announced yesterday.

[trouseredthelot] 31/10/2007 14:47

eipgam, I'm hearing Nov 8th but why then I have no idea. But I am hearing that growth is stratospheric, far in excess of analysts forecasts and I'm guessing they feel the need to update everyone.

FWIW I'm long of 50,000 on a spread bet at around 480p. I'm looking for £7.

And thank you, Simon Gordon for the post. He does seem to know what he's talking about.

[simon gordon] 31/10/2007 12:19

From FT Alphaville this morning:

PM: At least just for sport

NH: ok

PM: Immarsat Neil!?

NH: been watching with interest some serious stake building in ISAT

NH: hedge fund called Harbinger has aggressive amassed a 12% stake

NH: done it in a couple of weeks

NH: now the angle on this is all about US satellite spectrum

NH: basically there are a number of players that want to use it to launch local mobile phone networks

NH: now, Isat owns a lot of spectrum

NH: not sure it has any plans to launch a service but

NH: the spectrum is becoming more valuable by the day

NH: now it just so happens that Harbinger have stakes in a couple of US satellite co's looking to launch this services

NH: think they are known as ACS services

PM: Ok - not bad for off the cuff Neil

PM: But what are the companies?

NH: hang on just getting to that

PM: Who are the companies, even

NH: right here is a recent note I managed to track down from lehman brothers on the stake building

NH: Harbinger Capital Partners has notified that they now own 10.2% in Inmarsat. Interestingly Harbinger owns a 46.8% stake in Terrestar (TSTR US) and an 18.6% stake in SkyTerra (SKYT US), otherwise known as MSV...both are so-called US spectrum plays holding "S & L-Band" sprectrum (labelled ATC plays).

NH: ISAT like MSV both hold 28MHZ L-band spectrum and would need to cooperate in order to get sufficient contiguous spectrum to strike an ATC deal.

NH: US SPECTRUM AUCTION: Harbinger is clearly a great believer in spectrum value, and appears to be cornering the market in the run up to 700MHz auction in the US early next year (start 24 Jan). ISAT readacross value: The value of spectrum was recently highlighted by AT&T buying spectrum from Aloha Partners for $2.5bn or $1/MHz pop. This suggests ISAT US spectrum could be worth up to 695p/shr stand alone, over and above the core and aero business value implied in today's price.

PM: Er, right - thanks for that

NH: hope that makes sense

PM: Thanks. Of course it does

[eipgam] 31/10/2007 10:21

I haven't heard it... have you? and when is it due?

[trouseredthelot] 30/10/2007 12:46

Repeated in error. Sorry.

[trouseredthelot] 30/10/2007 12:45

Has anyone heard anything about an upbeat trading statement due out imminently? My man in dark glasses tells me it will send the sheep-like analysts scurrying back to their desks to all issue upgrades...

[enami] 29/10/2007 11:13

Looks good, Harbinger buys another chunk, now up to 11.2% from 10.2%

[eipgam] 28/10/2007 14:58

Thanks MD... might see a nice filip on Monday? The whole piece is worth reading




Nick Louth: One promising way of going into orbit

By Nick Louth

Published: October 26 2007 17:35 | Last updated: October 26 2007 17:35

I have for a few years now been fairly suspicious of technology stocks, and they have rarely occupied more than five per cent of my portfolio. Yet during the market's recent shudders, it has been technology stocks that have shown some of the greatest resilience, helping to keep the Nasdaq 100 the most buoyant of all the important global indices.

My reticence is based on several factors. The innovation cycle that keeps high-tech firms ahead of their rivals is often only a handful of years, compared with generations for non-technology-based businesses, such as ports or airports. Fairly few tech firms pay dividends, so promised returns are based on the market's estimate of the discounted value of all the jam that is to be delivered tomorrow, and into the future. As the technology bubble showed us, strong earnings growth can reverse very rapidly, and high share ratings can collapse.

However, not all technology companies are reliant purely on a technological head-start. There are other forms of incumbency that may promise better returns. One of these I described in my column on Inspired Gaming in April, which has revolutionised gaming machines by allowing them to be remotely updated and checked for cash balances.

Inmarsat, which I have held since April, is a stock with similar advantages. It has a dominant position in the global satellite-based telecommunications market. It controls three- quarters of the market in data and voice for shipping, which is growing very fast at the moment, and half the market for land-based services. It has some very unfair advantages over its rivals Iridium, Globalstar and Thuraya.

First, its spectrum is free, having been granted by an inter- governmental body a generation ago, and covers 98 per cent of the world's population. Second, because of its domination of legacy services, including vast amounts of government and military business, it makes far more money than all its rivals combined. In the first half of 2007, it made $77m pre-tax profit on $284m turnover, which is a hefty ratio by any standards.

Third, it has been able to use its strong cash flow to cement a lead in investing in new services. The most exciting of these is Broadband Global Area Network (BGAN), which provides both high-speed data and voice over the same connection, as is currently available in cities. BGAN is going to be a big product, because it allows anyone to set up a fully functioning mobile office anywhere on the planet, whether on a yacht, offshore oil rig, executive jet or supertanker. The service is provided through terminals smaller than laptops, and has garnered 12,000 subscribers in just 18 months. Then there is the biggest opportunity of all: providing in-flight cellular and data services at low prices, with the bill paid in the normal way rather than having to use a credit card on a dedicated terminal.

Inmarsat isn't neglecting more basic phone products, though. It has a low-cost fixed phone and mobile voice joint venture in Asia with a company called ACeS. The key advantage is that the service doesn't need any land-based infrastructure, yet the handsets are now as small as an ordinary cellphone. It already has 50,000 users. This is a fifth the size of the market leader, Thuraya, but is growing fast. The difference is that Inmarsat has the capability to offer global coverage, while Thuraya is confined by its satellites to areas around the Middle East.

Perhaps best of all, Inmarsat is coming to the end of an investment cycle. Many of its new products merely use existing satellites more effectively and efficiently, thanks to software upgrades that can be "beamed up" from the ground. This allows it to reap plenty of cash rewards for all its previous hard work. Cash flow could increase from $146m in 2006 to $300m in 2009. This helps support a dividend yield of over three per cent, and what I hope will be a progressive dividend policy.

I bought Inmarsat shares at 408p, on a prospective P/E ratio in the mid-20s. The shares are now 495p, having recently climbed over 500p, but their rating is pretty steady. I expect them to make fairly rapid progress towards the upper £5 level by March next year.

Whatever happens to the global economy, I can't see demand for mobile services falling, especially when they are provided in areas in which it used to be impossible to make a call.

Nick Louth is an active private investor, writing about his own investments. He may have a financial interest in any of companies, securities and trading strategies mentioned.

[mdrans1] 27/10/2007 12:04

Nick Louth My Portfolio in todays FT Money;it's all devoted to Inmarsat!

[enami] 25/10/2007 12:19

A nice rise with the rest of the market. Dividend pay day tomorrow.

[bigboyo] 19/10/2007 10:14

nice write up in the FT about inmarsat ---

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MARKETS: Picture grows clearer on Inmarsat
Inmarsat, the satellite communications group, was in focus yesterday after Harbinger Capital Partners, a US hedge fund, declared a 10.2 per cent...Brothers pointed out that Harbinger owned stakes in two satellite companies, Terrestar and SkyTerra, which might need to co-operate with Inmarsat to launch a wireless phone network across areas of the US. Inmarsat shares fell 2.4 per cent to 499½p.

Oct 19 2007, Financial Times