Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[enami] 04/8/2006 14:04

1101 GMT [Dow Jones] Inmarsat's 2Q results are ahead of expectations, and the upbeat outlook should calm recent concerns, says Dresdner Kleinwort. Expects a 2H recovery, with new products making increasing contribution to sales. Notes weakness in land voice division, but says new products by 2008 may help long-term recovery. Recommendation remains buy, with target price of 461p. Shares +5.4% at 331.5p.

[tompeck] 04/8/2006 13:38

Wad, I think there was a bit of breath-holding on the part of the city in response to the Morgan Stanley note posted above. Looks like MS painted an overly negative picture and the move up gets us back to roughly where we were prior to their note being published.

[wad collector] 04/8/2006 08:44

Big price rise in response to small profit rise ; am I missing something between the lines or were the estimates worse?

[twohopes] 01/8/2006 12:02

From Space News

By PETER B. de SELDING
Space News Staff Writer

PARIS - Mobile satellite operator Inmarsat of London is in final negotiations to purchase a stake in Asia Cellular Satellite (Aces) of Indonesia and essentially take over the business of the struggling provider of satellite-telephone services in Asia, according to industry officials.

One official said the Inmarsat investment in Aces likely would amount to no more than $40 million, and that the deal is likely to be announced by September once Aces' creditors have approved the arrangement.

Jakarta-based Aces operates the large Garuda-1 satellite in geostationary orbit and is in possession of two assets of high value to Inmarsat: 7 megahertz of L-band radio spectrum over Asia, and a satellite-telephone technology designed by Ericsson and compatible with the GMS standard that is the world's dominant cellular transmission technology.

[kamitora] 28/7/2006 21:16

Satellite network operator Inmarsat dropped 16.75p to 313.25p, the sharpest faller among the mid-caps, as Morgan Stanley -- one of the company's advisers on its flotation last year -- highlighted recent comments from customers that could suggest a structural slowdown in the market.

Telenor Satellite and Stratos, who provide voice and data services over Inmarsat's network, have made negative comments on demand over the last week. Both companies Stratos talked of lower traffic volumes and margins over land satellite, with Stratos blaming a continued shift to lower margin products and services.

Together, the two companies account for nearly 70 per cent of Inmarsat's revenues. While Inmarsat charges wholesale, and is therefore not immediately exposed to retail price pressure, the poor trends could be bad news for gaining new business in the future.

"We believe consensus forecasts for the remainder of 2006 bake in a significant acceleration in growth which looks too optimistic," Morgan Stanley told clients. It trimmed its Inmarsat share price valuation by 20p to 350p and repeated "equal weight" advice.

In response, Dresdner Kleinwort rushed out a note saying the problems highlighted by Morgan Stanley were already in its forecasts, and recommended clients buy ahead of Inmarsay's results due next Friday.

[masurenguy] 28/7/2006 15:07

Tompeck - alan@bj beat me to it :-)

[tompeck] 28/7/2006 15:05

Many thanks.

[alan@bj] 28/7/2006 12:37

Tompeck - this is off the Dow Jones Newswire:-

0844 GMT [Dow Jones] Inmarsat's (ISAT.LN) story is changing and 06 trading is difficult warns Morgan Stanley. Cuts target to 350p from 370p and reiterates equal weight rating. Notes Telenor Satellite and Stratos, which both made negative comments on Inmarsat 2Q sales last week, together account for almost 70% of Inmarsat revenues. Morgan says consensus forecasts for the rest of 06 include an over optimistic acceleration in growth. Morgan does not see evidence of demand from new industry sectors. Expects volatility and near term weakness in the share price towards 300p. Trades -5.2% at 312.75p. (KHO)

The share price plummeted to 3.09 but has since steadied and now at 3.175p.

[tompeck] 28/7/2006 11:14

Masurenguy, do you know why they have downgraded the stock? Can you post a link?

[masurenguy] 28/7/2006 10:24

Morgan Stanley downgrade has undermined the share price today.

[enami] 09/6/2006 08:15

Decision time? Bought at the open

[markjeppo] 20/5/2006 21:41

Well, given the general market sentiment i'm just glad I didn't jump in too soon. Will let things settle before making any decision.

[markjeppo] 17/5/2006 12:28

I'm in the process of getting more funds available. Only hope this one stays cheaper for a little longer! No intention of leaving the party - looks like the general market correction has thrown up some interesting bargains. At least I'm assuming it's just a correction...

[volsung] 17/5/2006 11:49

From Stocktrade
Elsewhere, CSFB upgraded its rating for Inmarsat to "outperform" from "neutral."

[volsung] 15/5/2006 22:24

I'm going to stick with my ISAT buy, markjeppo, and watch VOG for the time being. Surprised it didn't close higher. I think ISAT will regain the 400 mark if results are anyway good and the general market rallies.

[markjeppo] 15/5/2006 18:07

volsung - could be a great opportunity to top up on VOG. Looks like the general market bloodletting has kept the price down. As for ISAT - time to sit this one out, I reckon.

[volsung] 15/5/2006 09:40

What was that I was saying about an Rns at VOG! ffs

[markjeppo] 13/5/2006 14:25

Thanks hb - i'd agree that the chart's a bit of a mess! I'm prepared for further falls if they happen, but i'm expecting (hoping for) a run back up. Of course my long term view is still bullish despite current weakness.

[horneblower] 13/5/2006 11:57

markjeppo,

ISAT's chart is a bit of a mess and I am finding it hard to interpret. However, I think I have a line on it but am less confidant about its direction than previously.

My view is that it is still in a general upward trend and that firm support lies currently at 345p, which it will probably hit on Monday.

The upward trend is, as normal, within parallel lines on the log chart. If it bounces upward off 345p then it should reach 410p again quite quickly. Getting through 410p might be a problem, however.

Opinion only.

[markjeppo] 13/5/2006 08:19

horneblower - I always read your TA analysis with great interest. I know you've been bullish on this stock in the past, but what's your take on the ISAT chart at the moment?

[volsung] 12/5/2006 21:17

From d igitallook:
16:42 360.20p 1,541,606 £5,552,889 Buy O
16:48 350.00p 1,175,000 £4,112,500 Sell O
16:47 350.00p 1,175,000 £4,112,500 Sell O
16:56 353.76p 592,000 £2,094,259 Buy O
16:35 361.80p 500,000 £1,809,000 Sell O
Sells outweighing buys after the bell. But someone is confident enough to stick 5.5 million quid in this. Good enough for me.
Quite a coincidence indeed markjeppo! Sold 20% of my core holding. Like you I think they might drift a little before news. Still very bullish on VOG though.

[horneblower] 12/5/2006 20:24

Was there not major buying after the bell?

[markjeppo] 12/5/2006 20:14

volsung - quite a coincidence, I also sold some of my VOG spreads to ease my margin pain & buy a little more elsewhere. I was pleased that I managed to sell some VOG before it drifted down a bit. I understand what you mean about a potentially positive RNS on VOG (which is why my core share holdings in VOG remain untouched) but risks have to be taken!

Having said that, we may be lucky enough to buy back into VOG at a cheaper price as I reckon the good news might be delayed longer than some traders think.

[volsung] 12/5/2006 16:03

Always the possibility of that markjeppo! Sold some VOG to pay for my latest ISAT. Knowing my luck they'll get a +ve RNS now.