Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 05/3/2018 07:55

$421m in profit for the first nine months of the year, as we all know from the 3rd quarter results.

Let's say a conservative $550m for the full year.

Current market cap is around $2.6bn, about 5 times full year profits.

[steeplejack] 04/3/2018 18:25

Figures on Friday.I would be very surprised if the dividend is maintained.The market price performance will not dictate whether the company decides to cut the dividend,it will be the operational performance,the level of indebtedness,which might make it prudent to do so.In this context,the needs of the business and its cash flow requirements,will sensibly take priority over the need to maintain the dividend to keep shareholders happy .The fact that Deutsche and Blackrock have been selling suggests that they have concerns about the groups trading performance as much as the dividend.We’re about to discover this week whether they have been overly bearish.Feel lucky.

However,even if the company was to cut the final by a third,equalising with the interim at 21.62 cents,the yield would still be around 6.7 percent.If the company can imbue some confidence that things are going ok and are under control,I reckon that concerns are discounted and the shares oversold.

[andyj] 03/3/2018 05:09

Now the chart does not look as horrifying as it did.

[zcaprd7] 02/3/2018 18:05

Blackrock out now as well...

[bluemango] 01/3/2018 15:45

Good call Aleman. Chart showing signs of promise, ahead of results in a week's time.

[w1ndjammer] 28/2/2018 10:40

Thanks to inmarsat its been great fun watching the racing.


Volvo Ocean Race pushes teams to the limit
28 February 2018: An epic Leg 6 of the Volvo Ocean Race saw the teams pushed to extremes – from the wet and wild upwind conditions of the start through the stifling heat and calms of the doldrums, leading to an incredibly close finish in Auckland, New Zealand



WJ.

[aleman] 28/2/2018 07:50

I tend to disagree. The near 1-year downtrend is trying hard to break out, although has not yet. The longer term downtrend remains and would not be broken until nearly 700p.

Also, I find charts work better if you let spikes run through trend lines, i.e. draw channels to the INSIDE of the daily ranges. Of course, nothing works all the time so a degree of flexibility is required and my thoughts are not set in stone. I find Mon£yam charts slightly different, anyway, so ADVFN should be taken with a small pinch of salt (as should all charting, really). They chart mid-price ranges rather than trade prices. If the spread moves sharply at some point but there is no trade, Mon£yam picks it up while ADVFN does not.


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[nav_mike] 28/2/2018 07:49

Plus you can move that downtrend line a bit higher so it intersects more points imho

[rcturner2] 28/2/2018 07:34

Still lower highs and lower lows on that chart.

Needs to break up through 550p before the downtrend is broken.

[aleman] 27/2/2018 22:27

Has it or hasn't it?


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[kamitora] 27/2/2018 20:12

Viasat CEO Talks New Satellite Internet Service and SpaceX

[aleman] 27/2/2018 12:24

The downtrend is falling at roughly 10p per week. Bots/shorters need to get it WELL below 450p or it will break out of the year-old downtrend in a few days. (There remains a less-steep, longer and winder downtrend since 2015 that it will still be in, though.)

[bluemango] 27/2/2018 10:55

Short activity still seems to be tailing off, further reduction from AQR Capital and JP Morgan now the only institutional shorter actively recording increases. Aggregate short 4.72%.

[aleman] 26/2/2018 18:15

Just looking at Intelsat - guiding for $2.1bn revenue and $1.6bn EBITDA. It has debt of $14bn and interest of $1.1bn! That is after it has bought some of its own debt back at a discount in 2016. I'm wondering where it gets its support to trade from. And people moan about ISAT having debt at 2.5 x EBITDA and interest cover of 10! One would imagine a slight rise in rates would kill Intelsat but I'm not familiar with its model. I suppose that's why the market cap is only a quarter of EBITDA at $400m. I'm surprised its that high. It looks like a Monty Python parrot.

[aleman] 26/2/2018 17:12

OG - cashflows don't need to grow, although they might well do. Current cashflows are enough to pay down debt and maintain the dividend once the capex passes. The share price indicates falling cashflows. Which is right - forecasts or the share price?


Is the share price trying to break falling resistance? Buying under 450p makes it looks a bit more likely to break this time, I think.


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[wskill] 26/2/2018 10:39

2024 at the earliest for this and if we look at the delays at tesla cars maybe 2020.

[zcaprd7] 26/2/2018 08:28

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/theres-something-strange-going-on-amid-the-satellite-internet-rush/

[zcaprd7] 26/2/2018 08:23

Not if you read the last 2 paragraphs of that article...

[extrader] 26/2/2018 08:05

Hi all,

Just unveiled at the Mobile World Conference in Barcelona:



..." Airbus SE, Delta Air Lines Inc., Sprint Corp. and two U.S. satellite-services providers have kicked off an initiative to enhance internet access on airliners, inviting other companies to join voluntary efforts to upgrade global standards for airborne connectivity.

The concept, still in its early stages, likely will require time to gain traction and develop necessary hardware and software changes. It also hinges on technical approvals from government regulators and aviation groups, along with overcoming traditional rivalries between wireless and satellite-services companies. ..."

Early days and lots of challenges, but is this an attempt to 'eat ISAT's lunch'?

ATB

[dexdringle] 25/2/2018 18:19

The Original Goldbug....if the dividend is maintained indefinitely, how long will it be before the share price gets back to £8 to restore the balance ?

[eeza] 25/2/2018 18:11

We'll found out on 9 March.

[the original goldbug] 25/2/2018 17:26

Frankly you don’t have to be a genius or ‘know something’ to think there is a reasonable chance that an uncovered dividend will be cut at some time, especially given a geared in situ balance sheet.

[dexdringle] 25/2/2018 16:46

The suggestion is that, in the case of ISAT, there is a direct correlation at any given point between the share price and the dividend.

The idea therefore being that the share price has fallen in anticipation of a dividend cut such that, at the new (lower) rate of dividend, the 'normal' ratio is restored.

What isn't clear is what happens if the old rate of dividend is retained after all.....

Also, a sustained attack on the share price isn't caused by a few punters with a 'hunch'. If the dividend is significantly reduced this in an indicator (for me) that someone KNEW something....

[eeza] 25/2/2018 15:22

Yes, exactly.
If the share price doubled no-one would be saying the yield was unsustainable, but the dividend would still be the same $ amount.