Iog Share Discussion Threads

[therealdeal25] 03/10/2022 18:12

Definitely near the bottom if not already at the bottom, even if I bought more at 19.5 I think it won’t go much lower! Could be 18p but I wouldn’t be too unhappy at what I have got in at compared to some here on the last rose to 44p
I’m seeing it as a 50% plus discount for new shareholders,

[officerdigby] 03/10/2022 17:37

TBH it's hard to imagine sentiment getting worse!So probably a good time to buy!However...

[therealdeal25] 03/10/2022 17:08

I think I will wait a bit longer to buy more, 18.8 is my target if it happens

[maxidi] 03/10/2022 15:36

Bought some more this morning 20.4p.

[dunderheed] 03/10/2022 14:14

Good to see "normal share price service" resumed.
Good old IOG "management".

[aishah] 03/10/2022 14:01

Energy regulator warning about significant gas shortages this winter. I've been adding recently. Dyor

[emigna2020] 03/10/2022 13:01

Dunderheed, why did the prat ban you from the POS thread?

[bountyhunter] 03/10/2022 12:34

No sign of an update here yet...



possibly the filters need tweeking

[dunderheed] 03/10/2022 12:22

2409 - and to add to that at least 6 months after Southwark has reached plateau production profiles!
Hedging now is not a good thing considering the situation with current "assets".

[wskill] 03/10/2022 12:07

Thanks hpcg I suppose 10% of production which they now hedge will have much less risk involved.

[hpcg] 03/10/2022 11:54

wskill - a combination of extreme margin requirements and some amount of risk. There are single points of failure and non-delivery would be extremely expensive. I don't think any serious hedging can happen until Southwark comes on line personally.

[wskill] 03/10/2022 11:37

Even without Southwark we have 32mmscf/d which is around 330,000 therms at last months average price of £2.90 is a considerable amount of revenue to any company especially if the market cap is £100m.

I wonder why IOG only fixed 30,000 therms a day with BP .

[therealdeal25] 03/10/2022 08:14

Think they have kept this very low key for the simple,reason, they want more acreage around the same areas! And don’t want anyone else applying ! 🤷‍a94;️

[bountyhunter] 02/10/2022 20:43

There could be a huge amount there with a P50 of 309bcf. If Pensacola comes in Deltic should fly, if not there's Selene to follow.
Pensacola has been given a 55% CoS which seems pretty good on the face of it.
"Deltic estimates the prospect to contain gross P50 Prospective Resources of 309 bcf with a 55 percent geological chance of success which will rank Pensacola as one of the highest impact exploration targets to be drilled in the gas basin in recent years."

[therealdeal25] 02/10/2022 13:24

Strange they are now partnered with Deltic drilling this month in The Southern North Sea exploring for Gas ! Maybe they know there is a huge amount at Pensacola as the others are ageing, 🤷‍a94;️

[therealdeal25] 30/9/2022 17:24

Not a bad finish was expecting worse so I could buy more, still there is always next week

[bountyhunter] 30/9/2022 13:20

I thought so but that clarifies the situation. I haven't done the sums but hopefully there will only be 65% * 0.0875 (with 91.25% development tax relief) =~ 5.6% tax to pay on current production profits.

[hpcg] 30/9/2022 13:05

Yes, any fixed asset is a development cost, and all one off cost associated with bringing production on line can be capitalised. It is the everyday production expenses that are opex. Same as if you buy a piece of equipment for a workshop, delivery and installation are part of the asset and are capitalised and depreciated.

[bountyhunter] 30/9/2022 12:21

Up to 91.25% of any extra development costs can be offset against tax on production assuming production revenue is high enough to redeem 91.25% of all development costs. Even if not we are not likely to be paying a lot of tax on production revenues given all the development underway. I am of course assuming that reducing the water cut could be considered a redeemable development cost.

[kinwah] 30/9/2022 11:55

Tried to buy 10,000 shares. No stock around. I'm thinking this stock is looking very cheap on an industry basis. Yes it has production problems but they will be fixed eventually. It would make a decent acquisition for many mid-sized oil companies. Difficult to price though as it's shown it can hit 40p under its own steam.

[hpcg] 30/9/2022 11:38

Dunderhead - Firstly, from the description of the symptoms, deep brine was always the most likely source and thus the likely, indeed only pathway was up a natural fault at depth. You and I both avoided outlining the most severe scenarios such as the reservoir being much narrower top to bottom with bottom gas being much shallower. To be clear here I do mean the estimated gas in place and recoverable reserves, I'm not talking economics at all. In other words a conventional water cut. This was by far the worst case. Secondly there could have been something more serious to deal with in the short term, such as the integrity of the riser. Again this was unlikely from the symptoms.
I'm not and never have been a reservoir engineer so there is plenty I don't know. Firstly whether the fault can be located. It looks like the seismic is reprocessed 1996 vintage. So possibly modern 3D but not broadband. They would need to put some more modern processing on it, and proper depth imaging. They should be doing this anyway IMO, by the looks of it they are using off the shelf Schlumberger multi-client data. It would only cost a few hundred thousand, well under a million. They should be doing this anyway frankly. Outside of my knowledge maybe they can locate it downhole, but that means a shut in and a rig. Even if they can locate the fault is there a permanent solution? It will necessarily be over pressured compared with the reservoir, but does the source have any surface connection to maintain that pressure? It all points to brine handling as the way to go for now.

When it comes to cost they are clearly carrying some overhead and will have increased overhead. For the first one I mean the standby crews for a shut-in restart. This was mentioned in the 20 June RNS and is already in plan for correction: "Permanent chemical injection modifications are expected to reinstate full remote restart capabilities by early Q4." The brine handling and processing is clearly an added cost, both in the operation and in the difficulty recycling the MEG.

In other words the guidance provided in the H1 report announcement is as good a guide as we have.

[dunderheed] 30/9/2022 10:38

hpcg respectfully can you reply to my 2395 please?

[hpcg] 30/9/2022 10:30

Actually I can understand sellers, here and everywhere else in small cap world. Some investors will be worrying about the future path of interest rates and in particular the cost of their mortgage. Others will have losses in other positions. In other words there is plenty of forced selling going on. This was exactly the cause of the gilt death spiral so not just small caps and small investors. There are always discretionary sells at any level and for every company, so it is not smart to expect there not to be sellers.

[dunderheed] 30/9/2022 10:23

hpcg don't disagree strongly as I also posted on post 2269 but do you mind clarifying the following points?

1. The reservoir volume is intact, within the bounds of the existing probability envelope. Maybe stupid question but most importantly in my reply to you, what have you gleaned from this RNS that clarifies that position?
3. & 4. combined - The methodology to keep brine within the capability of the current slug catcher is working and just results in reduced gas flow for which we now have numbers. If they can get an enhanced liquid handling solution ready for deployment during the planned Bacton maintenance period then we don't even get an interruption for the mitigation. All of which will mean an increased direct operations cost and/or capex recovery tariff - will it not - which still needs to be determined - hence profitability not as compelling?

..."as otherwise the RNS was a good as it could have been."... surely if it was the other (immaterial) field/pool it could have been better?! (lol)?