Iog Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 30/9/2022 09:32

I'm pretty happy with that RNS all things considered. This is what I thought was likely the case, and more or less said that in 2268, but I see on review not explicitly. What does this mean:

1. The reservoir volume is intact, within the bounds of the existing probability envelope.
2. The brine production is controllable at the choke; higher gas pressure restricts the brine ingress.
3. The methodology to keep brine within the capability of the current slug catcher is working and just results in reduced gas flow for which we now have numbers.
4. If they can get an enhanced liquid handling solution ready for deployment during the planned Bacton maintenance period then we don't even get an interruption for the mitigation.

In the meantime Nordstreams 1 and 2 are most likely permanently out of action. So long term European gas prices have permanently at least doubled from the pre-war level. UK and Europe have announced price support for consumers which means that these super high levels will be maintained through at least the spring, and will most likely be evelvated for another 12 months beyond.

Missing from the RNS was any mention of Southwark progress, which I presume is the main part of the reason for the negative reaction as otherwise the RNS was a good as it could have been. I can understand why buyers might not march back in but I'm not sure why anyone would sell at this level after that release. I have added as the share price will at least double in the next 6 months.

[wskill] 30/9/2022 09:13

Glad thats out now it was never going to be great,at least we have 32mmsc per day a decent amount it will keep the lights on thats for sure,there will have to be a well intervention of some sort to fix it I guess.

Now all to play for with Southwark for £99 million market cap this is a gift .

[dunderheed] 30/9/2022 08:55

Oh christ the kiss of death UWE is averaging down.

[therealdeal25] 30/9/2022 08:43

I just bought more at 18.8 so those reds sells are actually buys! Ha ha here they go again!

I’m ready to plough in another £10,000

[bountyhunter] 30/9/2022 08:37

So it's most likely a Blythe fracture, at least we know the source with production continuing and increasing to the latest gross production rate of 32 mmscf/d.
It would have been good to have an update on Southwark as well but presumably still on track for Q4 or they would be expected to tell us.
Overall I'm reassured that they have provided the production update that we have all been clamouring for and clarified the water issue.

[frazboy] 30/9/2022 08:05

"Blythe was the smaller field/pool was it not?"

No. Blythe 2P Gas net reserves were 3x Elgood.

[tidy 2] 30/9/2022 08:05

Unbelievable

[tidy 2] 30/9/2022 07:53

Explains the bounce yesterday and the heavy buying into close. All eyes on Southwark now imo....looking forward to see what is can produce

[bubloo] 30/9/2022 07:47

I suspect a down day

[dunderheed] 30/9/2022 07:43

Yes not "too" bad?!
Blythe was the smaller field/pool was it not?
No reference to operating costs though?
Plus surely they can just seal off this "sub seismic resolution" fracture/aquifer but is it really worth the effort considering they nearly always f up everything they touch?
Not sure how the market will take it but generally positively?
Good the shut down is likely before Southwark starts and pleased that AH didn't state "are pleased to update" and try the normal half RNS back slapping, (or should I be worried by that?) lol!!
All IMHO and dyor.

[tidy 2] 30/9/2022 07:43

Explains the big buys going into close yesterday. Current cap 100m Yearly turn over 264m at these rates but Southwark will more than double this.

[tidy 2] 30/9/2022 07:39

So £24m average per month and £264m PA allowing for 1 month downtime. Southwark production to look forward to on top of this.

[kibes] 30/9/2022 07:34

RNS just now 32mmscfd is a reasonable rate if they can maintain it. Howver, I don't get any sense that they are getting a grip of the problem, they have no idea what to do with unexpected liquids arriving at Bacton. They would always have expected MEG since they are injecting it, what did they intend to do with it? But saline fluid from the reservoir is much more difficult.

[tidy 2] 30/9/2022 07:33

Happy days production is gradually increasing and Southwark will more than double these rates.

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2022 16:06

DH, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt to update us sooner rather than later given the NSTA update anticipated next week and LSE email, and assume production has been as per latest forecasts or the market would have been updated. What's done is done re the ongoing water issue not that I'm happy but what is important now is how it will be dealt with going forwards. Surely even with just one well flowing and Southwark due online within months and other prospects in the pipeline this is way underpriced now with spot and future gas prices looking to be remaining high for the foreseeable? Barring too many further f'ups of course before you say it! ;)

[sludgesurfer] 29/9/2022 15:52

To be fair, its not enough to say "this is the problem". The market quite rightly expects " this is the problem, here is the solution, here is how much it will cost and here's how long it will take". That all takes time. IOG don't want to see their share price trashed any more than we do. I'm no apologists for thus management team but having had first hand experience trying to diagnose similar problems, on this issue I have some sympathy with their plight. I predicted low 20s again following results. As a holder, I take no delight in being right.

[dunderheed] 29/9/2022 14:13

BH - come on the water issue was in early July - why did they take so long to update us on that - which just coincided with the half yearly report. The delays to Southwark drilling - still to be accurately reported (LOL!) coincided with same report.
WS - inferred that there is no potential reduction in previous reported profiles from this letter - I hope he is right but again they waited until the half year report to "report" this - what is not to say they will not report this later when they know what is going on here?! Or,did all of these (IMHO) reportable issues all occur or "come together" just in time for the half yearly report?!

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2022 13:37

they have just said in an email reply on LSE that they will update us when there is something to say and produce regular updates, in any case we should see some updated production numbers next week
Edit - and why would the water issue affect Southwark given that it's a different field?

[ashkv] 29/9/2022 13:30

I have thought about buying into IOG again - I sold out at 30p post my last entry trade.

Very worried about water issues - and what if this carries over to / has impact on Southwark...

Would like to average down but safety first has curtailed my appetite.

Why are management so radio silent when share price at 52 week lows for a gas producer!!!!

[tidy 2] 29/9/2022 13:00

Nice little shake.

[wskill] 29/9/2022 12:33

There is a huge amount of potential here for a £100 million cap company IOG is capable of earning more than this per year in the very near future must thank Mr Market for his gifts to me this past few days.

[dunderheed] 29/9/2022 12:19

2365 - exactly my point xxnjr - when exactly did they know this - early July was the "management" presentation as well and no mention at all of this then.