Iog Share Discussion Threads

[mikeh30] 25/8/2022 13:30

I'm golden cross that I didn't sell at 40 yesterday

[dunderheed] 25/8/2022 13:25

tidy2 weren't you the chap explaining about the importance of "technical indicators" and "celebrating" the legendary golden cross here along with fundamentals??
That golden cross ("indicator") did a lot of good here - didn't it?!

[tidy 2] 25/8/2022 13:11

Yes unfortunate update today. They are still making but I'll keep it on watch for now and see how the next update comes along with Southwark. I topped up DELT with IOG profits. 600bcf potential with Shell as operator so they are fully funded and good to go. Also have the golden cross but pushed through strongly on theirs. GLA.

[sludgesurfer] 25/8/2022 12:45

Try get one of the employees onboard. With the LTIPs, even the most junior one will get you over the line.

[dunderheed] 25/8/2022 12:30

Guys - I'm proposing a SHAG (oooohhh mummy!) over on LSE if you'd like to take part? Only worth doing if we can get around 20-25 million shares though so very early days.

[maxidi] 25/8/2022 12:16

I had a good run on IOG but glad I sold this morning as you never know where this will end.

Selling now has halved my profit but I am relieved to have a profit!

Back into something a bit more safe with a dividend I think. And back to swing trading too. GL to all, I hope you get that takeover.

[ntv] 25/8/2022 12:08

Thrown in the towel and will wait and see if they sort the problems
Management not telling shareholders what is going on much earlier , to me, is against ethics and rules
the water problem i don't like
GLA who continue to be holders

[marvelman] 25/8/2022 12:08

As a matter of course I always sell those companies I do not fully trust to come in without surprises before results. Thanks to Bounty for getting the results day spot on. Unfortunately I took the view that I half trusted them and sold only half my holdings yesterday. I sold the rest this morning. Just on my watchlist for now. Beggars belief that this is actually a gas (and water) producer that is collapsing in value with almost every "operational update" they come out with.

[dunderheed] 25/8/2022 11:52

hpcg - it's not missing the point at all - who on Earth could have forecast such high gas prices now - I agree I bought into UK gas because of obvious "writing on the wall" (and expected "some" increase of pricing) but gas prices now are completely out of the field and had they continued on a more normal curve then IOG would be absolutely completely f'ed - and there is no other argument or justification here - even for "management" seeing the "point" and receiving come plaudits for that - which is quite frankly ridiculous comment (LOL)!!
All IMHO and DYOR!

[dunderheed] 25/8/2022 11:47

BH - "normal premium" - how is anything to do with IOG "normal"?
Management are 100% fine - look at their LTIPs which will crystallise in full with any "take-over" - which really sticks in my throat.
All IMHO, DYOR.

[hpcg] 25/8/2022 11:42

Not good operational news. But to counter those saying but for the high gas price etc, well that is a core part of the investment thesis here, not some accidental happy bi-product. So not illegitimate comments, nor inaccurate, but as I say, somewhat missing the point in my opinion.

[bountyhunter] 25/8/2022 11:25

The normal premium for a takeover would be 40% so 40p would be too low, try 45p that would possibly be acceptable by sufficient holders excluding management of course so any such approach would most likely have to go hostile to stand a chance of success imho fwiw.

[sludgesurfer] 25/8/2022 11:25

Takeover? Can't see it at the moment. Why buy something when there's so much lingering uncertainty about production rates going forward?

[sludgesurfer] 25/8/2022 11:10

Not great. So one or both of the wells are producing too much water for the reception facilities to handle. So you produce each independently to establish which is the cause (there appears to remain the possibility that both are seeing elevated water cuts).Without intervening at the well and shutting off your problem zone (if the geology and completion design even allows), once you know the cause you either upgrade the reception facilities to drain water in greater volumes/higher frequency or you curtail production over the long term. The worry of course is that the water cut doesn't stabilise at these elevated levels and continues to increase which potentially jeopardises the long term future of the well and points towards a lack of understanding of the geology. This would all be less of an issue were the third well likely to be on production any time soon. The tone of the comments around fluid losses makes me think this won't be the case.Holding for now but frustrated again and glad to have taken some off the table a while back.

[deanmatlazin] 25/8/2022 10:29

prime for take over.

[ashkv] 25/8/2022 10:26

Probably hold off for 1-2 weeks for Volume Weighted Average Price to stick at current levels or lower and than boom - at a premium of 30%... IOG is snuffed out...and this management extinguished....

[ashkv] 25/8/2022 10:21

Sitting duck for a takeover - expect announcement ASAP...

Cheap as chips for KIST and SQZ - GBP50mn of Capex for H2 written off against tax... and a whole bunch of drilling that can be offset against Windfall tax in 2023.... no brainer... approach imminent... 40p... I think II's will bite :)

[maxidi] 25/8/2022 10:12

There are too many if's and but's for me now I'm finished with iog. Good luck to you all.

[deanmatlazin] 25/8/2022 10:04

winter is coming. i am sure they will sell the gas at higher price

[deanmatlazin] 25/8/2022 10:02

bought some. cheap as chips

[tonytyke2] 25/8/2022 10:02

Well clearly news could have been better this morning but there are still some positives looking forward imo.

Whist H2 production will be less, they will be generating significantly more revenues which will bring debt down substantially. This will make them into an even better takeover target imo.

We have Southwark Q4 and at some stage, they will resolve the Blythe and Elgood issues and full production should be back in force. It is quite possible that Q4 could be game changer here, where things could really come together if no takeover. If management are up for it of course. (:-)

So I'm looking to add at these levels.

[ntv] 25/8/2022 09:55

wtf
Sorting some other things and price has dropped like a stone
last time I looked it was 36.
There goes my profit here

[maxidi] 25/8/2022 09:51

Sold the lot this morning in 4 tranches, average at 35p at a loss of course.
Let's see where it goes and I may be tempted back!
Now at 31p.....

[frazboy] 25/8/2022 09:50

I’m guessing that the key is asset quality.. who would have thought that hydraulically (the company’s announcements always say stimulating, I think, but it is sandstone so not sure what else they can be doing) fracturing tight gas reservoirs would lead to early water breakthrough… I presume the operational issue is that they weren’t expecting any water - I’d be amazed if they don’t know the salinity of the aquifer prior to the drills (from regional data) so why mention this - is the pipe work not designed for corrosive water?

As for working out which well it is from, the water travels through the pipelines slower than the gas so it’s frequently troublesome to pinpoint it to the well although THP and temperature will be indicative.

Hpcg, ROBIZM - thanks for your previous replies, been busy so I don’t have much chance to look at the boards these days

[bountyhunter] 25/8/2022 09:49

They don't need incentives to stay DH lol!
Who else would employ them?!!