Iog Share Discussion Threads

[alxo82] 17/5/2022 14:54

Agree, when the cold season arrives, the lack of storage solutions in UK will pump gas prices to crazy levels again. Let's hope Southwark is pushed to Q4 2022.

[bountyhunter] 17/5/2022 14:44

alxo82, yes but prices have improved this week.

[officerdigby] 17/5/2022 14:26

Day ahead indeed.
It is an insanity.

But the reason was because of UK storage. With some storage, or rather lack there of. With adequate storage prices could be kept at elevated enough to secure LNG imports and stored for winter.

There would not have been a problem. When I say problem. It is massive problem as gas now has to cover winter requirements and LNG day to day won't do it. (So UK would normally take gas from Euro and the it will have potential come from Russia OR if not I'm not sure they will share.

In the current situation whenever they turn on LNG taps on full UK national grid floods and price potentially goes to zero (just because there is no where to put the gas). Then they have to stop importing....

And conversely, it means NBP will be screwed in winter to the upside compared to TTF.


Today I think the futures month ahead going back up means day ahead has recovered further.?

Anyone got the DA live?

I'd like to see the government talk it's way out of this farce. Maybe they want it to happen to force fracking...?

[alxo82] 17/5/2022 14:08

Bounty, the problem is with the NBP day ahead in April and May,much lower than the futures were.

[bountyhunter] 17/5/2022 13:07

NGLNMc1
Latest Trade trading higher
192.33p
Change 20.0 +11.65%

SkynNews needs to catch up!

[bountyhunter] 17/5/2022 13:05

Into positive territory all of a sudden today, surely I must be hallucinating!?

[alxo82] 17/5/2022 11:51

The day-ahead is killing the company, hedges are not yet in place

[pyman] 17/5/2022 11:40

just seen a report about domestic oversupply- too much gas.

[marvelman] 17/5/2022 10:01

We often put SQZ forward as a potential saviour of our sanity but of course we should remember KIST is closer to home as far as the southern NS assets are situated. Anyway and either way please, anybody, take us in your arms as we have suffered enough.

[affc21] 17/5/2022 09:13

June 2022 futures 174p, so far this morning.The June 2022 futures have recovered from the recent low of approx. 128p

[affc21] 17/5/2022 08:56

Morning Bounty, yes bit of a roller coaster ride, with IOG still near the bottom...Strange shenanigans here again, you can buy 10,000 at 8.2p or sell 10,000 at 8.2631Hasten to add I have got enough in my portfolio for now, don't want to be too greedy :)Anyway sun is shining here, walk and coffee is beckoning...

[bountyhunter] 17/5/2022 08:15

Exactly what I was thinking :)

[affc21] 17/5/2022 08:13

Good to see SQZ continue its recovery from the recent fall in share price this morning, which leaves IOG somewhat lagging behind and still near its recent bottom.

[affc21] 16/5/2022 16:29

Cheers for the info Marvelman, I haven't noticed that anomaly before...

[marvelman] 16/5/2022 16:01

...and the chart this afternoon is saying (to me at least) we still have an aggressive seller

[marvelman] 16/5/2022 15:59

affc21...yes, that has been the case off and on for a few weeks.

[affc21] 16/5/2022 14:54

That last trade of 50,000 shares at 28p was a buy :)

I could not believe it, I could buy 50,000 at 28p, which was for less than if I wanted to sell the same amount!!!
So of course I took advantage of the opportunity...

Edit: At time 14.47

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/5/2022 14:31

Back in at 28p.
:)

[affc21] 16/5/2022 08:14

Operational Update
3 May 2022


Blythe and Elgood:
Production is currently stabilising at 55-65 mmscf/d gas and 800-1,000 bbl/d condensate, with steadily improving uptime rates.


Southwark:
Drilling of the two development wells, Southwark east and west, is scheduled to continue into Q4 2022. Final hook-up and commissioning is then expected to deliver Southwark first gas later that quarter.





......
A stab at some numbers,


I think the hope here is that when Southwark East & West gas wells come online in Q4 (company forecast) this year (hopefully no slippage in timeline) that gas production as a whole will be doubled from the 55-65 mmscf/d (net to IOG 27.5-32.5 mmscf/d) gas production to date from Elgood and Blythe.


P2 (net to IOG):
Elgood 7.05
Blythe 21.25 
Southwark 35.6


In my attempt (below) to deduce the upside potential in revenue for 2023, I am assuming gas production from Southwark at 15 mmcf/d (trying to be very conservative here).


I have also assumed a average Therm price of 200p (using a 150p Therm for summer and 250p for winter).


2023 potential revenue:

Production from (Elgood, Blythe and Southwark net to IOG) January to December (365 days) 45mmcf/d (30mmcf/d Elgood, Blythe + assuming 15mmcf/d from Southwark) (net to IOG) at 200p per therm + 400 Boe/d condensates at £85 = £352m


Capex. £80m guessing same as year 2022 company guidance ?
Opex. (Guessing) £20m ?


 No Tax payable according to Finncap brokers note for 2023.


......

IOG market capitalisation at 27p per share is £142m

[affc21] 15/5/2022 11:07

As to costs of production I think management have been a bit coy to date.
Best source in that regard may be a broker's note (FinnCap)?

[affc21] 15/5/2022 11:01

Investor Presentation
April 2022


Page 21
Reserve's and Resources Estimates:


At bottom of page in small print you will find the details you are looking for,
Which is mostly Management estimates.


Apart from,
ERC Competent Person's Report dated 11 October 2017 for,
Nailsworth and Elland.

[bountyhunter] 15/5/2022 10:38

Good questions, have you looked through the latest results, RNS news, reports and presentations? The answers might be there somewhere but without wading through those personally I couldn't say one way or one the other categorically, although unfortunately IOG are not always great on detail in my experience.

One would hope the answers would be somewhere in this 108 page document!

[thebull8] 15/5/2022 10:31

Hey had a couple of questions hope somebody here could help with 1. Have any of the assets been independently verified and booked as reserves? can only find management estimates 2. Have any costs been provided with regards to the current assets in production I.e costs to maintain and extract gas/condensates

[anley] 12/5/2022 18:22

How would IOG defend a 30p tender offer for X%?????

As some are saying these shares look like an "asset at a discount".

So long as the bond holders get their payment and Mr Buffet gets his capital back with interest all will be well.

As and when the markets calm down and the war clouds start to clear then the price will rise but what an opportunity right now to build a position.

[bountyhunter] 12/5/2022 16:26

Gas up 25% today and IOG still manages to go down!

NBP spot gas 174.5 GBp
Change 34.76
% Change +24.87%