Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 07/3/2022 11:27

Re the price agreed with GazProm, at the time IOG said:

"Gas will be sold [to GazProm] on a day-ahead daily nomination basis at a price linked to the National Balancing Point (NBP, the UK traded gas benchmark). A separate gas sales agreement with BP Gas Marketing Limited was signed on 24 February 2014 for Blythe, the other Phase 1 field."

[dunderheed] 07/3/2022 11:26

I don't want to sound like a ramping idiot but I do seriously think we could see upward share price movement of 25-35% over the next couple of months if production start ups go to plan?
Still seems to be under the radar?

Apologies marvel - forgot to say thanks for the reply, appreciated.

[marvelman] 07/3/2022 10:31

You are correct DH...I had missed that entirely...thanks

[dunderheed] 07/3/2022 10:29

Ah sorry don't know why the above took so long to post, lol.

[dunderheed] 07/3/2022 10:28

Wasn't it spot price marvelman?
You'd be mugs to pre sell just in case you were "late" producing or there were other "technical" issues arising?

[marvelman] 07/3/2022 10:26

PDT...thanks for that..you are certainly not talking rubbish

[pdt] 07/3/2022 10:17

The price agreed with Gazprom was on a day-ahead daily nomination basis at a price linked to the National Balancing Point Gas Price. With the option after two months of hedging once a regular flow was established. So gas is currently unhedged.

Finncap have an eps of 13p for 2022 based on 80p per therm. Looks like they will achieve average prices that are double or more than that during 2022 given that the price today is around 600p.

On a pe of 8 would give a share price of £1 at 80p.

So quite an upside given today's prices. I am new here so if I am talking rubbish please comment.

[marvelman] 07/3/2022 09:43

I do wonder what price had been agreed with Gazprom. They have been fortunate to have been able to cancel the contract and receive these elevated prices elsewhere. For once they have been lucky in this convoluted process to first gas. For us investors it has proven to be a hold worth keeping faith with.

[aimmafia] 07/3/2022 08:44

This will goto 100p easily..... will be making monster profit.

[edgein] 07/3/2022 08:34

Its on the verge of a chart breakout. Can't see oil and gas prices coming down with supply and demand issues before the unfortunate events in Ukraine. With US talking about banning Russian oil and gas I'd expect many others to follow. Even if Iran was brought back out of sanctions it would only fill a small gap. Solution for UK and Europe is drill many more oil and gas wells in the NS.

Regards,
Ed.

[sphere25] 07/3/2022 08:28

Unless my eyes are going wonky, the gas price has hit 650 pence per therm. Astronomical moves!

Well, good for for IOG, terrible for others. Hard to see how other parts of the market don't continue to get annihilated if these types of price moves don't top out and come back significantly soon.

Markets aren't priced for a big fall off in growth.

What a mess.

All imo
DYOR

[affc21] 07/3/2022 07:40

FinnCap Brokers note out this morning with price target increasing by 38% to 66pCountdown to first gasDated 7 March 2022 "IOG has started backgassing the Saturn Banks pipeline, the precursor to first gas from the Blythe and Elgood fields, which is expected around the end of the week. These gas fields will be coming onstream into a record gas market and will quickly generate significant cash flow to help fund the next phase of IOG's growth. IOG has an important future role to play in helping secure UK domestic gas supply, an important consideration not just environmentally, but geopolitically too now. Higher UK gas price assumptions drive a significant increase to our risked NAV and price target, which jumps 38% to 66p/sh. "

[bountyhunter] 05/3/2022 09:06

07/29/2021:
"Andrew Hockey, CEO of IOG, noted the recent strengthening of the UK gas market, with forward pricing for the six-month winter 2021 gas period closing yesterday at over 101 pence per therm - 96% ahead of the company’s central planning case for that period."

So they planned for first gas sales at around just 51-52p/therm. Obviously we have seen a delay of a few months, however the profits look set to way exceed original expectations.

[bountyhunter] 05/3/2022 08:16

As I said I don't think IOG's first gas is hedged, for whatever reason. Previously they had agreed forward sales to GazProm, I don't know if that was at spot or not but that contract was cancelled due to the Ukrainian situation in any case.

[alxo82] 05/3/2022 07:32

IOG cannot hedge a production that does not exist, that would be suicidal. The crazy gas prices also require companies to provide securities for that hedges, look at Serica, the securities for its hedges are taking half of the liquidity, and I guess that will be even higher with these prices. In case you have a breakdown in the platform, station or pipeline and you cannot serve the gas, the company will be in a very bad position if it cannot buy the gas elsewhere to meet the gas volumes for the hedges.

[sphere25] 04/3/2022 16:41

The buys were flying in there! The market makers closed off price points very quickly too. Hopefully a sign the shares on offer are drying up and the sellers on the offer might remove their orders on that piece of news too.

If that buying continues next week, this is breaking out - we're headed into the 40's. The economics are too heavily skewed in favour of IOG.

Blooming hek, that update has even made me bullish ha

Well, in this doom and gloom environment, I guess we have to try and show some optimism.

Roll on next week.

All imo
DYOR

[dunderheed] 04/3/2022 16:40

And the "much coveted" 444 post to boot!

[bountyhunter] 04/3/2022 16:24

1 week and counting!

What could possibly go wrong now?

... don't answer that!!

[nina65] 04/3/2022 11:35

We need a new management here ,pronto.

[affc21] 04/3/2022 11:14

Farrugia,Found the following in the IOG Investor Presentation December 2021, page 4,"Elgood and Blythe wells successfully flow tested in Q3 at maximum gas rates of 57.8 and 45.5 mmscf/d respectively".Investor Presentation December 2021:https://www.iog.co.uk/media/1409/iog_corp_pres_dec21_vf.pdf

[dunderheed] 03/3/2022 12:32

No guarantees but pretty "likely" that it will flow, I'd imagine.

However with the numpties running this show, lol, anything could happen.

Before I get accused of de-ramping I am relatively long term holder now holding 1.2MM shares.