Ince Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 17/12/2021 20:37

@salmon9 I only held Ince before this deal was announced. If you do the calculation then if Arden was at that time cheaper than Ince.

[salmon9] 17/12/2021 17:06

I think I am correct in thinking that you have recently purchased a significant number of shares in Arden, and if this is correct then I can see that your perspective may be different to mine!
I own a significant number of shares in Ince and I had been looking forward to Ince consolidating their existing business before adding another company with all the associated work of integrating it. If they hadn't been distracted by trying to acquire Arden, I think their share price would be much higher than it is now, based on their H1 results and declared dividend.

[johnhemming] 17/12/2021 14:37

I held both Redde and Northgate prior to their merger/takeover which had the same short term effect on the share price, but post Merger they have done well.

I see this as a similar situation.

[jim digriz] 17/12/2021 12:48

I don't really mind either way - I also hold Arden for exactly the same reason as Ince, they seem undervalued so I'm happy to have the two holdings combine. Arguably Arden agreeing to the takeover is exactly the sort of thing I've seen before, mentioned above, where sustained low share prices cause companies to panic and agree to things which lock the low values in permanantly (as well as selling up, rights issues are the other way in which this is done). It would be nice if Ince would just do nothing for a year or two apart from concentrate on their core business and generate some steady profit growth.

[salmon9] 17/12/2021 12:26

I am hoping that Ince's offer for Arden will be withdrawn.
The steady fall in the Ince share price, since the offer was made, now means Arden shareholders would, at today's share price, receive 36% less value in terms of Ince shares. Surely there wouldn't be the necessary 70% approval from Arden shareholders for this offer.
Arden shareholders have already been offered 21.6% of the expanded Ince, and I hope Ince won't increase their offer and thereby offer them even more of our company. Arden's profitability record is patchy and their company is so much smaller than Ince.
Ince's focus could then revert to increasing the profitability of the core legal business and rebuilding investor confidence after this debacle.

[jim digriz] 17/12/2021 10:31

Bought some more as the share price is so very weak. From past experience my main worry when share prices are so slow is the company itself panicking and doing something stupid which locks the low price in. Hopefully they won't do this and they will now deliver a couple of years of improving results and we can get a valuation closer to that of peers. I like that their leases have break clauses in the next 12 months according to their interim statement earlier this month.

DYOR

Jim

[pinemartin9] 09/12/2021 17:24

It amazes me how some of these investment houses make any money. Why are they selling at this price?

[40 fathoms] 09/12/2021 04:48

I am not sure the volume was so large yesterday. But nevertheless we know that Allianz are in the process of finishing their sell down. They ended the 3rd quarter with 4,000,000 shares and are last reported at 752,500 shares. They have been responsible for a significant part of the recent pressure on the shareprice, but another week or so and they should be done.

[antanatar] 08/12/2021 16:07

I'm suprised with all of the buys going through today that the share price hasnt any great forward movement... Being held back by MM's?

[40 fathoms] 08/12/2021 12:26

Probably worth noting that a couple of Arden investors have not (as of todays RNS)agreed to extensions of their irrevocables. The level of IUs has fallen from 44.5% to 35.1% of the shares in issue. I am not sure I blame them, given what has happened I would have wanted to see the Ince results before re-signing on the dotted line.

[rik shaw] 08/12/2021 08:14

Yes cash is king. When I worked in a consultancy firm the equivalent to lockup days was an absolutely key metric and we were pestered each month by the accounts team to get invoices out asap and to chase until payment was received.

[40 fathoms] 08/12/2021 08:09

Cashflow will start to look pretty decent next year if they can reduce the lock up. Some decent savings to be made on real estate and on payment of deferred compensation to Ince vendor/partners. Overall happy, but I want to know they are laser focused on getting paid for work.

[rik shaw] 08/12/2021 07:56

Presumably cashflow. (4 month delay in paying the dividend matches the lockup timescale for cash in Asia so shareholders are helping the firms Asia clients with cheap credit...)

In terms of the final dividend 'The Board has adopted a medium-term dividend policy of distributing 20% of post-tax earnings' so say 5-6p earnings would suggest a total dividend for the year around 1-1.2p.

[40 fathoms] 08/12/2021 07:30

Agreed. I am happy with the results and there is a lot to like. I think the business looks in good shape. However from here on I do want to start to see very significant progress on the lockup in Asia. If they cant make it work they should downsize to only doing the business that does pay and pays on time.

[jaf111] 08/12/2021 07:30

Restoration of divi interesting / positive but why delay it by over 4 months (20 April)????

[johnhemming] 08/12/2021 07:20

Results look OK to me on two metrics I put the Ince final target price (some way down the track) at £1.50-£2.00 and equivalent calculation for Arden. 0.5p dividend is small, but it shows the intent to make a payment. It is after all an "interim" dividend. Where they go with final if anything is another issue. It does mean they could easily have a final of the same or more than the interim.

[40 fathoms] 01/12/2021 00:28

Stock was suspended for 4 weeks so it is to be expected that a number of people would want to head for the exit having been unable to sell during that period. Getting the dividend reinstated and hopefully some pretty clear financial guidance for the rest of the year and we will be off to the races. In the upcoming results I also want to see management take further steps to set clear KPI that they should be judged against.

Also now the volatility of the Ince transactions are almost washed out of the accounts I want to see them focus the presentation on current and future outlook for cashflows, which from here on out should be starting to look pretty good. I do think it is important that along with the dividend that they reinstate some form of explicit financial guidance with the usual COVID caveat if necessary. Finally and they have said they would look at the possibility previously, I think a move to quarterly trading updates would be helpful for the stock. It does not need to be much, just a revenue figure and a couple of lines on trading conditions and near term outlook.

[johnhemming] 30/11/2021 17:09

I think this is all part of Omicron which is probably a wrong reaction rather than an over reaction given the info from South Africa.

[antanatar] 30/11/2021 15:17

This is now in bargain territory... pure sentiment due to the mess they made with the NOMAD, doesn't reflect trading update or future prospects imo... I have just increased my position

[pinemartin9] 30/11/2021 12:43

Wow! That is some fall....getting into seriously undervalued territory now. Either that or something going on behind the scenes that the market doesn't like. Can't see how they would release a trading statement saying everything's ok then it not be. Therefore, I think this is being walked down due to news vacuum and opportunism. I may reduce my average a little if this continues.

[pinemartin9] 29/11/2021 20:21

Hopefully we can move on now!

[40 fathoms] 27/11/2021 13:51

All is well that ends well. No doubt we will see a few of the nervous types exit next week but lots to look forward to after that, results, divided and the takeover.

[rik shaw] 27/11/2021 08:13

Appointment of Allenby Capital as Nominated Adviser and restoration of trading on AIM

[wobblywilbur] 26/11/2021 08:48

...and with the results should come the resumption of Dividend news.

[40 fathoms] 26/11/2021 08:40

All will end well, either an appointment or an exemption. We still have plenty of time in the day. My suspicion is they want to /will release results at the same time.