Ince Share Discussion Threads

[antanatar] 26/11/2021 08:01

Deadline day today... thoughts anyone?

[40 fathoms] 20/11/2021 01:08

With or without a Nomad it is probably not material enough to be RNSable but I am happy to see we now have a Glasgow office.

[timmythedog] 18/11/2021 08:22

Which "other board"?

[bountyfull] 05/11/2021 12:34

It seems far stranger the the NOMAD could not have foreseen the suspension. I therefore think it must have been very technical/obscure point. Any CEO would rely on their NOMAD for guidance so I don't blame the CEO.

[greg the grinch] 05/11/2021 11:25

Seems to me that INCE knows that them cutting costs was key to profitability (in a video). Buying Arden gives them the opportunity, or sould I say 'excuse', to get rid of people en masse - plus a reduction in office space, in which case there is a good chance that profits in both co's will rise when CV melts away. That's the hope. 500k bonus with no clawback was a poor show - too easy to pump out RNS's to get the bonus? At least the CEO has a large chunk of shares, so has som eskin in the game.

[cb7] 05/11/2021 06:55

I see the takeover RNS was put out at 1414 which is also very odd timing, unless they were forced to disclose prematurely due to an imminent leak.

[rosejs2] 04/11/2021 18:11

1Bond... I asked the same question to Ince Investor Relations on the 28th October
the response I received was as follows:-

Due to the AIM rules you mention discussions had been ongoing with the AIM team at the London Stock Exchange for weeks and today’s suspension is both unexpected and very regrettable.



AIM had indicated we would have time to appoint a new Nomad, but did unfortunately not clarify their final position until late last night.


The Ince Directors are focussed on appointing a replacement NOMAD and will make an announcement to that effect as soon as the formal process is complete.



Yours sincerely



Mariann Fairley
Head of Group IR

[1bond] 04/11/2021 17:22

The problem with Ince is the CEO. Not a city man, indefensible that you make an offer for your own Nomad without realising this will cause regulatory issues and your shares will be suspended. This is the same CEO and same the Nomad (Arden)that raised money at 45p in Jan 20, when the month before the shares were trading at £1.15.

Not a marriage made in heaven and the CEO should be fired or resign

[johnhemming] 01/11/2021 17:46

I think the nerves have been about doing placings rather than necessarily issuing shares.

[salmon9] 01/11/2021 15:28

Well said 40 Fathoms, I agree with your logic completely.
I too have seen both message boards and there seem to be a couple of people on the other board who wish to hold the CEO to his recent word which was that any deal would be funded out of cashflow. They are very upset that within a few weeks of saying this he is funding it by issuing shares. I think taking everything into account, funding it this way is probably more digestible, and the value of the asset that we are gaining means that we are, in a practical sense not being diluted.

[40 fathoms] 01/11/2021 14:19

I always find the difference of outlook between ADVFN boards and LSE boards amazing and instructive. Different folks and different strokes. I guess that is what makes a market.

They seem to have two main issues ... 1) Our CEOs recent bonus, my view is even with the bonus that they dislike he is probably one of the lowest paid, if not the lowest paid of any "Managing Partner" of a law firm of the size of Ince.

The other issue they seem to have is the use of shares to complete the Arden takeover. I can see the point, but on balance I think it is a good deal and is accretive in the short term and depending on the future performance in the longer term as well. They seem to see it as dilutive which I am not sure I understand ... would I have preferred a more favourable merger ratio, of course but given the reality of the situation would I have taken the same deal on these term, the answer is YES. The also over look the fact that the Ince board will have a lot more information about the relative position of the two companies than we do. Our CEO is the largest shareholder in Ince, if this is a bad deal it will cost him more than anyone else, I remain more than happy to be guided by his judgement.

[wobblywilbur] 01/11/2021 11:00

Thanks 40 - that may well shake things up!

[40 fathoms] 01/11/2021 10:24

It is a scheme of arrangement so will need to be 75% of those shares that vote in the meeting.

[wobblywilbur] 01/11/2021 09:39

Interestingly I cant see that Luke Johnson (the largest Arden shareholder, other than the EBT, and an ex-Director of Arden) has given an irrevocable undertaking. One wonders if he was approached by the BoD and if not why not, as his support for the deal would have ensured its ultimate success.
As it stands I think only 50% need to vote in favour so its pretty certain it will succeed...

[johnhemming] 01/11/2021 07:57

From the RNS:
In addition to the Arden Directors, Ince has received irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the Scheme (or in the event that the Acquisition is implemented by way of an Offer, to accept or procure acceptance of the Offer) in respect of 8,536,063 Arden Shares and representing approximately 29.4 per cent. of Arden's issued share capital (excluding Treasury Shares) as at the Latest Practicable Date. Together with the irrevocable undertakings from the Arden Directors, this gives a total of 12,937,759 Arden Shares in aggregate representing approximately 44.5 per cent. of Arden's existing issued ordinary share capital (excluding Treasury Shares) as at the Latest Practicable Date .

I have over 1% of Arden and would be expected to vote in Favour. I would think some of the other more recent purchasers would probably also do so.

I think it is pretty certain as it stands.

[40 fathoms] 01/11/2021 07:41

I think it is interesting to note today's RNS (8.3 form) ... it follows on from 2 last week where Ince Shareholders are also decent sized Arden shareholder. JH on here has indicated he is keen on the deal and one would suspect the others are likely to be as well. It looks very likely that this deal will go through.

[40 fathoms] 01/11/2021 07:35

Wobbly, you are correct for the Arden number. I have taken the half year number, noted they have raised more capital than in the first half, I have then doubled the first half EPS and knocked a bit off. It could well come in a good deal higher than this, given the amount of capital they have raised since end of April.

[johnhemming] 29/10/2021 17:42

Thanks to 40 fathoms. Panmure do have a page on this, but I don't think they publish the research.



I have reasonable holdings in two firms that are regulated by the SRA: Ince and Nahl.

I tend to feel that a market cap around the turnover is not unreasonable as a first approximation.

[wobblywilbur] 29/10/2021 17:15

40 Fathoms. Useful insights - thank you. I wasn't aware that there were Arden forecasts in the market. Who is writing research on them or have you just extended the interim performance forward to get to an estimated full year position?

[bountyfull] 29/10/2021 13:49

Thank you 40 Fathoms - much appreciated.

[40 fathoms] 29/10/2021 07:54

Always good to see someone who puts their money where their mouth is.

Just for those who may not have access to some of the forward looking numbers from the various research providers.

Arden is forecast to do EPS of @ .065 and for this FY ending October 21.

That puts Arden on a P/E of 4.1x at current shareprice 25p for this FY (ending this weekend) and 5.1x based on the 31p Ince is paying. From this number you would need to back out the net cash to get a real sense of what they are paying for the business. It is going to be @3.5x .... hardly expensive.

Ince is forecast to do EPS of .0816 for this FY ending March 2022. This is based on a blended forecast form Panmure and Arden.

This puts Ince on a P/E of 5.7 x this FY and 4.27x next and 3.2x for FY 3/2024 ... this is before the accretion they are expecting form Arden. These numbers assume revenue of 106 million this year, 119 million next and 140 million for the year ending 03/2024