Ince Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 07/9/2021 10:27

htTPs://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/ince-boss-enjoys-one-off-500000-incentive/5109693.article

[johnhemming] 04/9/2021 13:54

I agree with your analysis. There are quite a few UK listed stocks that on a value basis are quite cheap with no good reason other than history. In the end the future matters more than history.

I think there will be a market correction in the next few years where some of the froth will get back to more reasonable valuations (which for some things is zero). When that happens, however, value stocks will continue because the underlying business has a value.

[wilko03] 04/9/2021 12:18

I have to admit I have gone in heavy on Ince, by far my largest holding. Fundamentally it is a ridiculously good opportunity but I fully understand this market doesn't follow fundamentals at the moment. At 200p we are talking a mcap of £130m which is still well below peers (most of whom bring in less revenue). Real test of patience but switch off for 15months I think we will be 200p. I asked them about the qtly updates at the last investor presentation and I am annoyed they haven't followed up on it. Last year they gave the 6monthly update on the night of the AGM (28th Sep) so hopefully similar, else will prob be 2 weeks into October.

[nicolaw] 01/9/2021 12:41

· No dividend for the year but commitment to declare a dividend with the announcement of results to 30
September 2021


The above is from the audited year end results so there will be a declaration... just unsure how much. if 4p then that would equate to 7% yield on todays price...

[rik shaw] 27/8/2021 08:55

Interims last year for period to end Sept were 1 Dec. Maybe reinstatement of dividend at that time will create a bit of interest.

[dare2share] 26/8/2021 14:32

If this gets any cheaper anybody fancy a whip round and we can buy it? Think it's just a case of the share being a bit unloved at present. Anyone know when next results due out?

[rbewes] 19/8/2021 19:40

This is how i c tit

Ongoing profit £2m per y/e accounts

add back 1 off's £6m (recognition of cost of lease as closed 1 floor at head office and legal cost costs for dispute with ex partners now settled so both non repeating)

If it cost £3m to recognise the lease cost of the closed floor up to October 22 (19 months from year end) then it must be £2m to rent one floor for the year. so overheads £2m less this year.


Year end is March so co had 3 lookdowns last year. Hopefully no repeat this year. Courts open uk fees will be up. Plus international growing. Turnover increase est £10m

Profit this year will be £11m at least.

[dare2share] 18/8/2021 14:16

I agree I don't understand why so lowly rated. You could buy the whole company for 40 mill, which just seems way too low given their operations. I'm down on my investment but will be holding as with patience can see this doubling in a year or two from the current levels!

[puku] 18/8/2021 13:58

a bit strange how cheap this is . Final adj EPS was 8.1 p P/E only 7. No reason to think it cant improve back towards previous adj eps of 14 p. And a confirmed intent to reintroduce the div. I have topped up 30%.

[johnhemming] 10/8/2021 10:02

I don't myself read this as a large volume sell off, but more like August volatility. I think it may be a buying opportunity, but I am not so sure as yet. I am travelling at the moment, but am keeping an eye on this.

[sphere25] 09/8/2021 16:12

What's going on here?

Unusual larger sell off that catches the eye. This is one of those highly illiquid one's where it only takes one or two reasonable sized sellers to clobber the price like this.

So the question is, is it just an illiquid based sell down and an opportunity or a fundamental based sell down? FNX and MBH are two recent one's that fell into former category after having been sold down alot, but I am not so sure about this one.

Just keeping a watch to see if someone gets the big mop out for a more technical type play....but I am not buying that chart, it could plunge anywhere at the moment.

Let's see if it can form a bottom and attract some buyers to offset these sellers first and then possibly consider a small short term position.

All imo
DYOR

[eringael] 09/8/2021 14:16

Drifting on the fickleness of shorter term investors / traders- always chasing the rainbow - any decent buy volume will see us move back up but frustrating to watch all the same

[40 fathoms] 09/8/2021 10:40

Agreed, we picked up some fast money in the move from 50p to 80p. They seem to be handing off now to stronger hands. All for the good for those with a slightly longer term horizon.

[johnhemming] 06/8/2021 11:45

>Any thoughts on the drift? Getting close to my stop loss...
Low volumes, no newsflow.

My guess it is a momentum trade driven by people getting nervous as it gets close to a stop loss or even automated stop losses.

Then again I do myself use automated trades to make a profit (as in if the price hits a level an automated sale goes through), but I don't have automated losses.

Adding to this I have just noticed that ADVFN have said Ince has hit a downward price breakout. That will cause some more sales.

[pinemartin9] 06/8/2021 11:15

Any thoughts on the drift? Getting close to my stop loss...

[johnhemming] 29/7/2021 08:57

The point about this sort of business is that it needs working capital for the work in progress even if a large part of WIP is deferred consideration to the partner handling the work. I did read something which shows their sensitivity to the markets concern about placements which is good in the circumstances.

I also noted the answer about possibly doing quarterly updates. This, of course, is a regulatory question as to what is allowed.

[40 fathoms] 29/7/2021 06:14

When you read through the results there is a lot to like. They are still a bit cloudy but as certain aspects of the Ince acquisition roll off over the next 12 months, things start to look very good indeed.

I was also happy to see this in the Chairman's statement " The Board is mindful of the importance of dividends to shareholders and has reviewed its previous approach to dividends. It has decided to adopt a medium term policy of distributing 20% of post-tax earnings to shareholders each year subject to the Group's overall forecast cash requirements. We believe that this should enable shareholders to earn a good income return on their investment while enabling the Group to retain sufficient cash to support a growing business to generate capital value." So the dividend policy is clear. I think 20% payout is decent if they can deliver double digit growth, if the growth slows below that level I would want to see a higher payout ratio say 30% or 35%.

But quickly eyeballing what that means for this financial year, it looks something like a 2.2% div at the current shareprice and that should increase to something like 4% for the following year.

On the call the other night the CEO also mentioned introducing quarterly operational and revenue updates. I think that would be a positive move.

[johnhemming] 28/7/2021 08:41

AFAIK there are sums due to partners which are not paid until the clients pay. I have not looked at these specific results, but this sort of thing could be a deferred liability.

[40 fathoms] 28/7/2021 08:16

YWDIS, I think the increase/deferment of liabilities is more than offset by the increase in lockup of £6.8m (almost all of this in the UK) ASSUMING that can be collected it is just a cash management issue.

[ywdis] 27/7/2021 16:22

Some positives ( dividends soon / impairment provisions ) . However note the deferment of £5.8m of liabilities

[johnhemming] 27/7/2021 13:04

It all looks reasonable to me. The "non underlying" lines are properly described as such which is not always the case.

[40 fathoms] 27/7/2021 08:51

It is going to take me a while to get through all of the details. Will have to wait until September for the divi but we now have the certainty it is coming. Lots to like on the cash and cashflow position, the reinstatement of guidance and the positive direction we will be seeing lots of aspects for the business. I think it must be said they did a fantastic job to actually grow revenue last year.

New board appointments look more than decent, board starts to have a professional feel. Overall pretty happy, but I suspect it may take the market a day or two to properly unpack these results.

[volvo] 22/7/2021 19:11

Yes Fathoms...as always the story will come out

[40 fathoms] 21/7/2021 08:33

All we need to see is a steady growth outlook and the reintroduction of the divided and we are off to the races. Looking forward to the 27th.