Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[this_time_its_different] 07/5/2018 17:47

I see IMB easily going over £30 within the next few weeks, the real resistance is after £40, which we may hit towards the end of this year, the start of the next year.

[this_time_its_different] 07/5/2018 17:45

I see young people smoking these days in the UK, the industry is alive and kicking. These young people will be smoking for the next 30-40 years once they are addicted. Emerging markets are even better since there is far less regulation or health warnings. Smoking is not a crime, it kills, we know, so does a lot of other things, alcohol, fatty foods and sugar. Are we banning alcohol, fatty foods or sugar? I think not.

[jrphoenixw2] 07/5/2018 12:12

I read this in the Telegraph today, extracts:

'Diary of a private investor: value is hard to find, but these three shares should buck the trend
I said in my previous Diary that I had become more cautious about the stock market. I had cash on the sidelines but would buy shares only if I came across value that was too good to resist.
In the event, I have bought into four or five companies since then. Of these, the following three seem to me to be good value, if not actually irresistible.
...The third company I have bought shares in is at the opposite end of the spectrum. It is one of the big multinationals: British American Tobacco (BAT). Previously I have bought into Imperial Brands, another tobacco company, which has a terrific dividend yield.
Shares in all the big tobacco companies seem to have had a bad time in the past year or so, falling quite substantially. My purchases are really a bet that this fallback has gone too far and will ultimately reverse.
...I recently saw a broker’s report suggesting that if new forms of smoking (such as e-cigarettes) gain rapidly in popularity, BAT is better placed than Imperial to take advantage. I don’t smoke and have no idea how the smoking market will change. Overall, smoking is in decline – but only slowly on a worldwide basis.
BAT’s yield is not as good as Imperial’s: 5.1pc is expected this year. But the dividends are forecast to increase in coming years.
These shares and others I have chosen have tended to be either smaller companies, those in out-of-favour sectors such as property and tobacco, or both.
After the long rise in the stock market since the crisis of 2007-08 there are fewer shares around that are genuinely good value, both in Britain and elsewhere in the world. I have looked at and rejected many other shares.
[concludes]... I think there are still profits to be made in UK shares. There are some excellent yields. But these days it is not as easy as it was to find really good value.'

ps. I PMed you back Gary

[garycook] 07/5/2018 04:23

jrp,PM for you Re LRE.

[jrphoenixw2] 06/5/2018 19:46

Tobacco is a growth industry in many regions; take care not to judge it through the prism of the the UK/EU/Western perspective. But up-selling a premium product abroad during economically challenging times of course has it's limits. Travel in say China and India, witness the new wealth, the new aspirant middle classes, who are marketed at similar to how the UK Sunday Times magazine in the 1970s was filled with full page ads for Benson + Hedges, Malboro, Silk Cut, etc. Put simply there are hundreds of millions smoking cheap local filth for whom IMB products are aspirational, sophisticated, *healthier*. Similarly these new brands did away with the old major UK ones, Woodbines, Players Navy Cut, Embassy, JPS, etc.

I agree to an extent with 'heat vs burn'. Vaping is not the same as smoking, you don't get 'the hit', you get a small rather unsatisfying part of it [IME], and have to fiddle with gear, chargers, liquids etc. I see the latter as a gateway OFF smoking, not a product to sell on a longer-term basis to non-smokers.

Interesting juxtaposition you make there Aurelius, the low-end unsophisticated 'fags' market is dying, but the high-end wealthy/sophisticated/[educated/informed?] sector will continue puffing on far more toxic cigars... FWIW I see growth in both.

[aurelius5] 06/5/2018 10:28

Tobacco hasn't been a growth industry for decades and to try to doll it up as such is absurd as is imagining there might be an as yet undiscovered strategic path to growth. IMB and all other tobacco firms operate in a climate of ongoing uncertainty and a high yield and single figure p/e seem appropriate as they were 20 years ago. Too much is being made of heat not burn - I've tried IQOS and it's clumsy, expensive and foul tasting; IMB are right to make it a low priority. Apart from a possible venture into medicinal cannabis, IMB's biggest strength is it's monopoly on tobacco's only growth area - high end Cuban cigars.

[asturius101] 06/5/2018 09:27

interesting

[speedsgh] 06/5/2018 08:03

Investors smoke out change at Imperial Brands, run by Alison Cooper - HTTPS://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/investors-smoke-out-change-at-imperial-brands-run-by-alison-cooper-szxn6ll2pThe tobacco company Imperial Brands is believed to be considering its "strategic options" after coming under pressure from investors to revive its flagging fortunes.Chief executive Alison Cooper has been told to come up with a fresh plan for the FTSE 100 stalwart after a 30% crash in the share price over the past year. Its stock closed at £26 last week, valuing the company at £25bn...

[philanderer] 04/5/2018 08:14

Credit Suisse. ..outperform. Tp 3700p. Cut from 4150p

[asturius101] 01/5/2018 17:41

added more here today. IR will be interesting.

[action] 30/4/2018 10:52

Shrinking volumes in industry will force big players to consolidate. There will be a bid but when that is the question.

[fizzypop] 27/4/2018 19:15

If we assume a FV of 2900p (mentioned above by another poster) then that's an 11% rise from the EOD price today of 2618p.
In other words we have already achieved half the 25% rise from the recent low of 2330p. I suspect the share price needs a pause for consolidation before the next leg up. Of course, this could head back over 3000p which I favour. We have momentum behind the recent phenomenal rise. I favour a trailing minus 3% stop loss just in case but the risk here is that you sell too soon if the share price falls back on profit taking.
But DYOR as always.

[philanderer] 27/4/2018 13:40

cable = 1.3757

[fizzypop] 26/4/2018 19:33

Extract from:
hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/2-shares-offering-bright-income-outlook/?utm_source=Daily+Bulletin&utm_campaign=bff4d70779-Daily_Bulletin_20180426&;utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_25eff0bb7f-bff4d70779-37288149

Income potential

Against this backdrop, income shares such as Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) and Berkeley Group (LON:BKG)could remain relatively appealing over the medium term. Imperial Brands has a dividend yield of 6.7%, with dividends per share forecast to rise by 9.3% per annum during the next two years. This means that due in part to a depressed share price, the stock could have a yield of 8% in 2019.

Since the business continues to have pricing power in tobacco categories as well as scope to grow its sales in next generation products, it seems to be in a strong position. Due to its defensive characteristics, it may also provide a degree of certainty in volatile market conditions.

[philanderer] 26/4/2018 13:52

Alphaville..

Sentiment shift for vapour post BAT? Credit Suisse pushing the UK in general?


BE
There's also the bond proxy argument on 3% Treasuries, though that's not as straightforward as we like to pretend.

BE
If there is a bid theory around, I haven't heard it.

[saltaire111] 26/4/2018 11:50

Looking good today. I too think this is a seriously undervalued business.

I bought in last week and I’m thinking about buying more. I should have bought them yesterday!

Salty

[garycook] 26/4/2018 10:35

W,Yes Income,and Growth.

[irenekent] 26/4/2018 09:28

Target £32. DYOR

[woodhawk] 26/4/2018 07:38

We clearly have a similar strategy, Gary.

[garycook] 26/4/2018 02:56

W,I own IMB also.

[woodhawk] 25/4/2018 17:14

Looks that way, doesn't it? Anyway, there's a nice fat quarterly divi while we await developments. Almost 8% p.a. for those who are buying near the current bottom.

[irenekent] 25/4/2018 16:41

Maybe a double bottom forming. Onwards and upwards!

[asturius101] 25/4/2018 13:53

will have a look at hgm too, thanks!

[asturius101] 25/4/2018 13:53

hi! yes, i have a similar strategy - got in IMB this morning. still quite positive abt WPP but we will see how this goes on Monday.