Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 20/2/2020 22:54

I hate it when your (occasionally) right Poopy.....spud

[poopypoopants] 20/2/2020 21:42

Sorry Spud, not sure if I agree with your assessment of IMBBY - I think that is how much they are down excluding the ex-div component of the fall, so I think they are still down by approximately the same as IMB. It's brave of me to correct someone after how wrong I was about today - it seems that I was the only one who didn't see a big fall coming. Some humble pie for dinner tonight... it's all I can afford now! :(
I agree some sort of forward guidance would be welcome though, but don't think we'll get it. Can't help but think they want to keep the price depressed until the new guy is in, which can't happen soon enough - then hopefully we'll get a recovery like BATS have got since they changed their CEO

[smicker] 20/2/2020 21:27

That was Terry Smiths take on it anyway

[eeza] 20/2/2020 21:19

Yes, agree with that Spud.
But don't have faith in the management to implement it. They will sit on their hands with fingers up...............

There's nothing wrong with the business, apart from the carrots in charge.

[spud] 20/2/2020 21:08

IMBBY finished down 3.6% (50% of the drop here) which shows how overcooked IMB was today. I'd expect that to translate into an up day tomorrow, but then who knows. Imo, the Company should issue a statement underpinning the current dividend for the next 3 years, allied to getting the new man in situ asap (6 months is way too long). That would then settle the Market and give comfort to longer term investors. I bet the price would respond favourably too. spud

[lendmeafiver] 20/2/2020 21:06

We all knew this ex-divi overreaction was coming here, but it will recover, just read the last annual report, no matter what the previous management teams failings were the business remains hugely cash generative with good dividend cover, the forced sale of the Woodford stake has in my view been a big part of the share price decline rather than the business being poor. Additionally general sentiment will change, probably after the new CEO starts, it has with BATS over the past year and i personally expect a similar price recovery here starting tomorrow morning hopefully, good luck all.

[cassini] 20/2/2020 20:25

I'm overexposed too, otherwise I'd add at these prices. Keep looking at the chart and can't justify the risk though. Agree about the divi, freeze it, but don't cut it. I have twice as much as I consider safe as I was swapping my IMB investment between an ISA and a SIPP so had the same amount in both accounts - was going to ditch the IMB in the ISA - then got caught out by the price action ;0)

[eeza] 20/2/2020 19:57

Just a wild completely crazy guess.

BATS have capable management. IMB do not.

[creditcrunchies] 20/2/2020 19:50

as per a previous post if they cut the divi the stock will dive they'd be better off freezing the divi and focus on debt reduction. I've seen plenty get crucified after a dividend cut, the yield goes up then they're back to square one with nothing gained. What I cannot understand is how BATS smash revenue guidance and IMB keeps warning about profits.

[lanaken] 20/2/2020 19:49

CAGNY presentation, by new interim joint CEO, on IMB site.

hxxps://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/investors/presentations.html

Is the business still making money and capable of doing so in the future?

[wunderbar] 20/2/2020 19:13

Without sounding biased todays price action is nothing short of farcical. Ex-div day (72p) and share price drops 135p which is almost equivalent to TWO dividend payouts! Appalling sentiment killing investor/market confidence in this stock - I guess the price to pay for continued failure re trading updates littered with bad news in some shape or form. Even so, todays fall is still a shocker, almost £1.3bn wiped off value of company - the capital erosion just keeps on coming.

So here we are at 1710p, not far off recent low c.1650p which itself was 11 year low. Needless to say the new CEO (whenever he starts) needs to urgently implement a plan of action to restore investor confidence. As things stand the share price has fallen 35% (900p) in 12 months alone. With such erratic price movements you'd be forgiven thinking this was an AIM stock rather than a FTSE 100 company generating hundreds of millions pounds profit - seems cold hard cash has gone out of fashion. Bonkers market.

[siriain] 20/2/2020 19:11

Poopipants. Your post could have been written by me....same situation. I think jlhubker down for 6 months and hope for gradual recovery.

[eeza] 20/2/2020 19:06

The next 2 divs are smaller ones & the useless blind are leading - until Del-Boy arrives.
I consider it to be uninvestible until further clarity on strategy & div policy.

BATS has vastly superior management,BOD, vision & execution and trades on a yield of just over 6%.
In contrast IMB has been the Dog of the FTSE for the past 5 years, Cooper has presided over a approx 66% decline in SP, over her tenure, whilst being paid approx £70m, and the BOD who have aided & abetted the debacle are still there - noses in trough.
The Market is not stupid. If BATS trades on a 6% yield they will demand 10% from IMB for the risk.
If the newbie cuts the div to 6% the Market will immediately mark down the share price back to achieve a 10% yield.

However, don't wish to be negative.

[poopypoopants] 20/2/2020 18:53

If I wasn't already very overexposed here, I'd likely be topping up at these levels, too - having to fight the urge to add more purely for risk management reasons. Really wished I'd sold a few at over £20 now - nearly did, but got greedy and thought the pullback was gonna be short lived before continuing the recovery upwards. Just hope we don't go down as low as the 1630s again and make new lows - not sure I can take the chartists saying about it making lower lows and how that confirms the continuation of the downtrend!

[essentialinvestor] 20/2/2020 18:50

Ocado, you are paying up front for future growth, if those
expectations are not met then it's ugly.

Amazon made its first annual profit in 2003, founded in 1994.

Now Ocado is not Amazon (well it may be if they bid!)
but it could be highly profitable in years ahead. I don't hold.

[p0pper] 20/2/2020 18:49

Can't remember the company name but saw on Bloomberg earlier that a company cut it's divi and the share price dropped 21% ffs hope that don't happen here.

[spud] 20/2/2020 18:36

And while everyone gets their panties in a twist, sit back & keep hoovering up them juicy dividends! If it dips below 17 quid I might just have a wee top up to replace the ones I sold at 20 quid. spud

[deadly nightshade] 20/2/2020 17:30

Remind me again what the pe of ocado is and how much profit they have made the past few years???

[siriain] 20/2/2020 17:28

Tomorrow morning will he interesting....wouldnt surprise me if it opens in the 1600s, but in really hope not. I was guessing 1750 close today, so was well off....might be a long haul back to the £20 mark.

[lonrho] 20/2/2020 17:21

Ignoring arguments re divi forecast p/e is circa 6.5.

[deadly nightshade] 20/2/2020 17:05

Yes them clown market makers seem to prefer silly tech stocks with 3 figure p/e anything that actually makes a profit these days is frowned upon. The market has gone mad

[alex1621] 20/2/2020 16:34

I quite agree, sentiment driven share price moves shake confidence, but don't always reflect underlying reality.

[lendmeafiver] 20/2/2020 16:26

Very well put Alex. I’ve purchased some more this afternoon at 1722, tell me of another company in the FTSE 100 with a cash conversion rate of circa 97% and a 10%+ dividend yield.