Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[vaperguy] 29/2/2020 23:28

Thank you eeza. This talk of a dividend cut makes absolutely no sense.

[eeza] 29/2/2020 14:30

In a nutshell, spud.

No-one mentions the yield when the share price rises - but they're all out of the woodwork, with 'yield unsustainable' when the price drops. It is not the share price which determines whether the yield is sustainable but earnings / free cash flow.

[spud] 29/2/2020 13:57

Strangely enough, so do I!

I think people naively assume that by cutting the dividend, the price will reflect the new yield. Unfortunately, all that will happen is that the price will sink and realign to the 'new' old yield @ circa 10% as the Market factors in the the risk/reward with this stock.

spud

[eeza] 29/2/2020 13:53

Oddly enough, if the share price rose to BATS' level the yield would be a respectable 6.5%.

I prefer that outcome.

[lonrho] 29/2/2020 13:21

If dividend reduced to 130p, twice covered at forecast 260p earnings, it still gives a yield of well over 8% and a p/e of just under 6. Very cheap but with fear in the air sentiment trumps fundamentals and shares could end up anywhere. However in the medium term fundamentals should reassert themselves.

[dmore2] 29/2/2020 12:45

hxxps://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-2-6-million-cohiba-humidor

[polaris] 29/2/2020 09:17

First - I read CDC reports. They are backward facing and give full analysis. Media is just likely to report a number. Example, deaths worldwide 290000-650000, median 400000. Media will report 650000. Then the rest of your post is based on a whole series of suppositions that are bred from fear and what ifs? Impossible to answer, which if we are taking the media approach means refuses to answer, but it's not the same thing.

[warranty] 28/2/2020 17:37

Very tempting to add more at this price but what is cheap can get cheaper. Well done those brave enough but I’m sitting on the sidelines for the moment anticipating still worse to come.

[scrwal] 28/2/2020 16:37

Bought a small amount but Interactive had a glitch this pm so the order has been executed but isn't showing on my account yet. The problem occurred between 2.30-3.30 and hopefully my account with loads of others will be updated in the next couple of hours !!

[lendmeafiver] 28/2/2020 15:52

Couldn’t resist buying a few

[hernando2] 28/2/2020 12:34

Thanks for the response..that make sense as well...as to the markets..its really kicking in, i heard to El-Erien this morning on R4, he thinks the major economies are going to take a hit and that it will take time for them to start the last activity.

He said that he thinks the makers will 'correct' further.

He is a very measured commentator `iMO

[spud] 28/2/2020 12:30

Now, if they could infuse the weed with the cofid-19 vaccine....

spud

[polaris] 28/2/2020 12:29

Hernando2 - fear, pure and simple. It's better to over-react than under-react. If you have a chance to stop something, then you probably err on the side of caution. If you sit on your hands and let it play out then more ammunition for the blame game that happens during post analysis. No-one really cares with flu, as it has been around for a very long time. This is new, and therefore fear kicks in.

The West cannot follow the same route as China. Freedom of movement and civil liberties get in the way. By instilling fear, you get people to self-isolate and lower the chances of spread, without effectively quarantining whole parts of countries. People will be more wary and actually use hand sanitisers and take care when sneezing. Blame association and playing your part come to the fore.

However, with that fear come other consequences. Here, it is that the markets have gone AWOL and social media has whipped the world into a frenzy.

If it is flu-like then summer is coming in the northern hemisphere and we know that there are many fewer cases in the warmer months...at least with normal flu. It will spread further, no doubt of that. Whether that justifies the current panic? I just don't see it with the evidence to date.

[eeza] 28/2/2020 12:20

It's a good job this is a 'defensive' stock.

[hernando2] 28/2/2020 12:01

polaris

I am not doubting your rationale. However if the authorities in China thought that, why did they confine over 60 million people to their homes?

I find it confusing that such draconian measures are being taken , or actions such as cancelling the rugby match in Italy.

If the Governments and Scientists really think it's far less of an issue than the annual flu, why the extreme reactions?

Not trying to pick an argument , but i am comply bemused by what's going on, if your interpretation of the issue is correct

Edit- Ive just read that the Geneva motor show has been cancelled and of course Japan has closed its schools, it seems like madness if it the virus is a small issue

[creditcrunchies] 28/2/2020 11:36

got a bunch more at 1581 also, so added 1000 shares today at 1606 and 1581. It was like the Boxing day sales today.

[hernando2] 28/2/2020 10:44

I thought it was interesting that in the early stages of the Virus in China, they were rounding up dogs and killing them. Everyone said Dogs can't get the virus what on earth are they doing( but in much stronger language).

Now a dog has it...

They weren't killing the dogs for nothing IMO

On flu many people also get it and don't report it and lead to complete recovery

Even using the numbers available the virus kills many more than flu percentage wise.

If it does get out of hand then who knows

China were and are being draconian in their measures, in the west people will not comply.

[w1ndjammer] 28/2/2020 10:34

polaris

yes a snippet of sanity,

i was careful to leave your name against it......

WJ.

[polaris] 28/2/2020 10:20

i see that you have cut and pasted my post here W1NDJAMMER - i'm flattered.

My IMB holding has taken a pasting in the last couple of weeks, a far cry from the recent 2050 share price ..

[w1ndjammer] 28/2/2020 10:15

polaris28 Feb '20 - 10:05 - 31210 of 31212
0 0 0
There is a complete lack of perspective with the hysteria around Covid-19. There are still less than 100000 reported cases globally (there are probably a lot more that were not reported and led to complete recovery, but that's another subject). There are 19 reported cases in the UK....19! Oh, and a dog might be positive in Hong Kong...OMG, the world is going to end! Hysteria, social media and the MSM press are having a field day.

Let's look at some hard numbers for flu. In the USA, normal flu cases were 45 M in 2017-18 season with 810,000 hospitalised and 61000 deaths, with a strong weighting (>65%) in those over 65. This is a disease that occurs every year and no-one really bats an eyelid at. Annual global deaths are estimated in the region of 290000-650000, with a likely median in the 400000 range. There is a vaccine available but the numbers are still there in black and white. The markets might suffer a 1-200 point blip in a particularly bad flu season.

[zztop] 28/2/2020 09:30

When it goes pandemic you may realise this like any other stock is not a bargain .....yet..

[pineapple1] 28/2/2020 09:27

me as well.....