Ig Design Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 02/12/2022 08:50

Nice 4% rise.
A nice steady climb would suit me.

[hamhamham1] 02/12/2022 08:34

I'll take that :)

[aleman] 02/12/2022 08:11

I don't think the dividend should restart so low. The company only has debt needed to manage a pretty tough working capital cycle. That was aggravated by delivery problems so it cut the dividend to temporarily build extra advance stocks. The problem seems to have passed. (Other companies are also reporting less supply chain disruption AND an improving input cost situation.) I don't see why the dividend can't return quickly to previous levels. It could soon be higher. The company has grown. Marketscreener has consensus of two brokers at 4p dividend in 2024 then 11p in 2025.

[hamhamham1] 02/12/2022 07:48

Divis were 8 or 9p last couple of years before covid.
Hopefully will start with say a 1.5p maybe next year, but happy for them to get solid footing before they start.
Divis are nice here, but I see capital gains as the real potential.
Could get say to 250p that would be up another 130p, that's nearly 15x old annual high divis levels.

[hamhamham1] 02/12/2022 07:31

Yeah, up 2% to nearly 12.25% now.

[time 2 retire] 02/12/2022 07:11

The company Broker picking up another 2 million+ shares for its clients has got to be a good sign.

[justiceforthemany] 01/12/2022 17:59

Should have reinstated the dividend, even if it was a token one. Changes sentiment and share price would have surged. Bad management.

[aleman] 01/12/2022 14:22

That's not my investment timescale. Such steep rises are usually unsustainable. In my book, looking at anything that short is just gambling. I'm usually looking for more sustainable channels that reflect fundamental improvements in a company's current and future figures. The ones I look for will usually occur over a few months to a few years.

[darrin1471] 01/12/2022 14:18

Depends upon the timescale. +50p and + 60% in the last month is steep

[aleman] 01/12/2022 13:20

It does not look like a steep uptrend but it's around 8p per month. Could it be £1 higher in 12 months? With about $50m underlying annual operational cashflow, and rising, I don't see why not.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 30/11/2022 16:33

Looks like the consensus dividend for 2024 has dropped from 5p to 4p (Why!? These numbers looked good.) but the 2025 dividend is unchanged at 11p. I'm not sure all revisions have been absorbed yet but it's still looking like a good recovery is under way.

[darrin1471] 30/11/2022 16:21

"we prudently temper FY24E forecasts albeit continue to forecast a meaningful yoy PBT improvement to $18.5m as the turnaround plan and margin initiatives gain traction"

Downgraded FY24E. wtf. I thought they would of been upgrading?

Hoping that is wrong and not what IGR indicated.

[se81] 30/11/2022 14:57

And some Cannacord commentary (seem far more upbeat than Progressive which will be company fed numbers- maybe guiding very cautiously?)

The Group’s H123 results show strong growth in sales, profitability and cash generation. After the challenges of FY22, this positive first-half performance demonstrates that the Group’s established relationships with customers have been sustained, despite the welldocumented supply chain challenges of the last 18 months, and that demand for the Group’s products remains robust. The strong performance reflects the acceleration of seasonal orders by customers to ensure supply ahead of peak periods alongside "catchup" price rises. Progress continues to be made to restore US operating margins to 5-6% with a number of initiatives underway and gaining traction, whilst cost savings are also being achieved. Importantly, the Group’s order book remains healthy at 93% of budgeted revenues (vs 91% last year), confirming customer loyalty. The strong H1 performance drives an upgrade to our FY23E profit forecasts, with the Group now forecast to achieve a small adj. PBT of $3.4m, compared a forecast loss of $1.7m previously

Given the acceleration in seasonal orders, we expect FY23 results to be strongly H1 weighted. In light of the positive H1 performance, combined with stronger-than-expected trading in certain Everyday categories, the Board now expects FY23 results to be ahead of expectations. We now forecast FY23E PBT of $3.4m, compared to a $1.7m loss previously. We now expect average debt across FY23E to be below $40m, lower than our expectation of $75-80m at the start of the year. With the global macro outlook remaining uncertain and expectations of a challenging pricing environment, we prudently temper FY24E forecasts albeit continue to forecast a meaningful yoy PBT improvement to $18.5m as the turnaround plan and margin initiatives gain traction

On revised forecasts, IGR trades on a Mar’23E EV/EBITDA of 4.5x dropping to 3.0x Mar’24E, highlighting inherent value. We reinstate our BUY recommendation with a 200p target price (was 620p prior to placing Under Review). Our target price is based on a c.5x CY23E target multiple, which represents a c.40% discount to the long run average of c.8.5x. This discount reflects a degree of execution risk around the turnaround strategy with near-term forecast operating margins still c.50% of the margins seen prior to the pandemic. We continue to believe that the medium-term prospects of the Group remain positive and that margins will recover and ultimately advance under the new senior leadership team.

[se81] 30/11/2022 14:53

yes darrin for 2024E....

Progressive: rev $919m, adj EBITDA 49.5m, fully adj PBT $11m, fully adj EPS 7.3c

Cannacord: rev $918m, adj EBITDA 60.5m, fully adj PBT $18.5m, fully adj EPS 13c

I believe I've pulled the correct figures out for comparison

[time 2 retire] 30/11/2022 14:51

I don't think lance is leaving, maybe he's staying on in America till that date.

[darrin1471] 30/11/2022 14:33

Senior Team Changes "Lance Burn available to end October 2023"
Leaving ? Lance will be 59 ish

[darrin1471] 30/11/2022 14:22

SE81 Post 1005. "Upgraded Board guidance to a small FY23E PBT is reflected in our new forecasts, alongside an initiation of FY24E estimates."

Do you have any numbers for FY23E and FY24E estimates?

[darrin1471] 30/11/2022 14:14

H1 2023 "The Group's adjusted operating margin recovered from 4.7% to 5.9% year-on-year". H1 2021 adjusted operating margins were 7.5%

H1 2023 Adjusted operating profits were $30.5m vs $22.2m in H1 2022 and $32.4m in H1 2021

IMO IGR should be aiming to regain margins in H1 2024 similar to those seen in 2021 which should be achievable as inflation falls and as CSS integration efficiencies are executed. Margins of 13.1% in H1 2021 and 12.3% in H1 2023 were achieved in DG international so further improvements may be possible.

H1 2023 revenue grew 8% vs 2022 and 2022 was +11% vs 2021. H1 2023 results said retailers were ordering early this year and last years H1 2022 results were lower due to shipping delays.
Price inflation is less likely to lead to revenue inflation with a company like IGR as for example Walmart will order a $5 stationary set in 2021 and order a $5 stationary set in 2022 but due to input inflation will accept the 2022 stationary will have less items in it(re-engineering). Walmart then might order a few less $5 sets in 2022 as consumers may be financially squeezed and they may see the product as less good value.
IGR will need to take market share for flat revenues.

Having bought into IGR in May 22 as a recovery share, I was looking for a recovery to around £2.50 within a couple of years. Recovery to £5 plus looked unlikely as this valuation was based upon IGR being a 20% growth share. Half of this growth was coming from organic growth and other half from acquisitions. Recession makes organic growth more difficult. Acquisitions were unlikely as CSS was still being integrated. IGR had no spare cash and the IGR shares were worth significantly less if acquisitions were to be funded by new shares being issued.
News that IGR intends to fully refinance in H2 2023 and that the "Board will shortly initiate the development of a growth-focused strategy." may indicate that acquisitions are back on the table soon.

[se81] 30/11/2022 14:03

Quite a boring business really- hard for the bears to conjure up a doomsday scenario now insolvency looks off the table ;)

Questions for me- will the cost pressures unwind, can they recapture peak margins on a 900m revenue base, can they avoid a highly dilutive equity refinance

If so, what level of share price /valuation can IGR command?

[hamhamham1] 30/11/2022 13:58

127p, nice

[wall street trader] 30/11/2022 13:30

Have a rethink buddy - you do t sound like you have grasped the fundamentals of their business model

[time 2 retire] 30/11/2022 12:33

These are deffo in demand, I was only allowed to buy 8k and at over the asking price!

[hamhamham1] 30/11/2022 10:50

It's up 5% today on those results, the move up is based upon buys from cleverer institutions than you, hilarious :)

[hamhamham1] 30/11/2022 10:48

Rolo. You don't understand their business model. The6 sell the products to the retailers, IGR don't worry about the value of the card after Xmas, that's on the retailer it's not sale or return.
And they are not just Xmas stuff.

[rolo7] 30/11/2022 09:37

No CFO bank debt needs refinance and low poor margins and products worthless after Xmas?!