Idox Share Discussion Threads

[techno20] 04/11/2013 17:37

Just catching up on today's news. I fail to see what issuing trading statements part way through the day achieves, albeit I am sure they will argue that they needed to issue as fast as possible after the position was clear.

Have to say whilst disappointing - and I fully accept that they have work to do to re-gain credibility - assuming there's no further bad news down the line - the shares don't look bad value at current levels.

Lots of large'ish trades today. Would not be surprised to see Richard K-C showing his faith by adding more.

I'm holding for now and may top up if it drops any further.

Techno

[filterwest] 04/11/2013 16:58

IDOX* (IDOX): Disappointing trading update (CORP)
• IDOX has released a trading update for the year ending October 2013 indicating an EBITDA shortfall of 20% versus previous guidance of £18m.

• The disappointment once again derived from Enterprise Information Management licences, which failed to convert within the financial year from an otherwise strong pipeline – of the larger deals expected, we understand one has now been cancelled and one will land in FY14 in amended form.

• While forecasts will need time to recover credibility after an annus horribilis of FY13, 76% of our FY14 EBITDA forecasts are covered by non EIM revenue, with continuing strong performance in the public sector software division. After the departure of Will Edmondson, a new CFO is expected to be appointed shortly.

• The performance is lamentable but the price weakness is an opportunity, with the price close to a sum of the parts valuation which would include the EIM division, which remains profitable, included for free.

New forecasts:
FY13 revenue £57.8m (-5%); EBITDA £14.9m (-17%); adj dil EPS 2.5p (-20%)
FY14 revenue £61.5m (-7%); EBITDA £17.5m (-18%); adj dil EPS 3.2p (-20%)

[tell it as it is] 04/11/2013 16:37

It would be helpful for the board to explain again publicly their revenue recognition policies. In other words is this shortfall a licence that had it been closed on 31st October rather than 1st November would have made all the difference, or do they accrue more across the life of a contract. If the latter then surely the board should have seen this coming before today.

[she-ra] 04/11/2013 14:54

Wonder if the Mail will have a takeover rumour. The takeover rumour they had the day after Anite crashed has certainly propped up their share price.

Funny how they never happen though.

[rathlindri] 04/11/2013 14:11

Might be one to watch for recovery in the future?

[isis] 04/11/2013 14:10

Don't hold but have on my watch list. Looks like some accounting irregularities as the FD went, best wait until they clear the Air.

[aishah] 04/11/2013 13:46

Ended my association earlier today after buying in 2007 around 7p. Only had a few left but a nice return over the years.

[gnnmartin] 04/11/2013 13:10

I've sold too: pity, I liked the story. I didn't have all that many, and I'll keep an eye on them.

[phillis] 04/11/2013 12:19

11.30?
Why

Deja vu!

last time the CEO was booted out and the FD took over

[riskblue] 04/11/2013 12:01

Timed my exit well last week. Looks like it is heading back into the 20's and may stay there for some while I suspect.

[rp19] 04/11/2013 11:54

Bang goes my theory - with hindsight wish I exited last week.

Not very happy with a 11:30 RNS either.

[rathlindri] 04/11/2013 11:44

glad I sold out last week (still at a loss btw!)
Doesn't look good, sorry for those still invested, good luck

[shanklin] 04/11/2013 11:43

So they couldn't even keep to the story they gave us in May and June.

Surely they would have known there was going to be a huge miss before today, or was there a board meeting today and the directors all chose to hide behind their sofas until then?

[jamielein] 04/11/2013 11:40

Another profits warning today:

"Idox plc (AIM: IDOX, "the Company") reports that despite a stronger second half to the year the Company is disappointed to have to announce today that it will fall short of its May 2013 EBITDA guidance for the full year by up to 20%."

[rp19] 01/11/2013 13:59

Perhaps not as many as hoped. There was a RNS 12/9 re a nuclear EIM contract win. 4th September saw an announcement on the McLaren website regarding a contract with Kentz (not sure why this was not an RNS, maybe to do with the fact that Kentz was subject to a takeover bid at the time). Various (I assume smaller) contracts announced with Local Authorities on the Idox website.

I'm taking the fact that they've not warned further on expectations since 29th May as a positive. Of course maybe that is just hopeful and I guess we'll see within their update in the next week or so. There was a £25,000 buy from the Chairman on 22/7 at 36.4p.

[jeanesy2] 01/11/2013 13:04

Some largish sales today, with the update due fairly soon i would be a tad worried if i were still invested as the large contracts appear to have not been signed, or have they ?

[davidosh] 31/10/2013 10:48

Here is the final piece outlining the whole picture...

[rp19] 31/10/2013 10:18

Thanks David. As I'm in my infancy in investing terms, I find your posts very insightful and they provide useful avenues for further research. Esp as I consider myself to be at the smaller-cap buy and hold end of the spectrum. There are a couple in your top 10 that I've had a look at. IDOX year end is today so a TS should be about in a couple of weeks. If they can meet their revised second half targets (admittedly they look steep) then I expect positive price action.

[rathlindri] 31/10/2013 01:48

not in mine either...that's why I'm selling

[davidosh] 31/10/2013 00:02

Sadly not I am afraid as I will explain further in my review...I have had far too many of my stocks just outside the ten last time that have put on a sprint this year so IDOX with a 3% growth rate has gone significantly backwards.

[rp19] 30/10/2013 22:47

Is it still in your top 10 David?

[davidosh] 30/10/2013 22:19

There are probably obvious reasons why but I do not think IDOX has featured in any top tens yet ! Why not enter yours ?

[rathlindri] 30/10/2013 16:40

I'm out also, a bad year here and nursing a loss. Bought at the wrong time (January this year) can't risk further pain...gla

[jeanesy2] 30/10/2013 11:25

I have to say i agree Riskblue.I'm out but watching here for now.

[riskblue] 29/10/2013 10:53

I'm out for now and keeping my profit. May regret it, but am too nervous that the delayed contract signings mentioned in interim results have not come through in H2.

"While our trading performance in the first half was disappointing, principally due to the delays in completing expected large deals in the Engineering Information Management division, it should be judged against the context of a larger and more developed qualified prospect pipeline across all our divisions and an expansion in the Company's global sales capability."