Ideagen Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 30/7/2019 13:51

You were correct gargleblaster! Been away for a couple of weeks.

Excellent results. Recurring revenues are now up to a heady 67% and rising. Finncap have reiterated their 180p target price, and the 6p EPS forecast for this year will undoubtedly be increased nicely by further acquisitions (that EPS has already been boosted 15% by prior acquisitions).

With £100m revenues targeted by April'22 - more than doubling from last year - there's still plenty to go for.

[robow] 24/7/2019 15:23

No but it sounds like they have gone out of business. You should try Sharepad

[welsheagle] 22/7/2019 15:14

Anybody know what is happening at 'Company Refs' - they have stopped sending out the 'Refs' and not answering the phone.

[leavers] 19/7/2019 13:00

Hi DavROs. I have the same info as you so this is really about what our approach is to owning shares. It’s a great company because it has been delivering growth for 10 years, it is very defensive, it has good management, it’s in a great sector, it’s not over-levered....I could go on. BUT the second best decision I have ever made with this company (the best being to buy them in the first place) is to trade the shares semi-actively based on their valuation. I haven’t always got it right but I have been reasonably successful most of the time. When they traded up to 170 I was selling from 150 in increments and sold my last lot just above 170 luckily. The shares then were wildly over-valued on all historical multiples. Right now their growth aspirations I believe have impacted their short-term upside. A buy and build strategy is great but there is a need to fund it and that comes with a cost. The facts are they are growing organically at 8-10% which isn’t spectacular. Trading at 30 times adj earnings is quite heady unless they can grow eps at a similar rate. For me they do t feel hugely over-valued given the consistent growth but they don’t feel cheap either. My sense is it’s a 50:50 call them trading to 130 or 160. If they trade down when the market digests these results and in the absence of further news then I will jump back in. But none of us should own shares at any price should we.

[yump] 19/7/2019 12:51

"Why sell if you see them as a great company ?"

I think you can probably answer that one yourself with a bit of thought.

[jimbobaroony] 19/7/2019 11:56

Halfpenny,

Let’s not see this board polluted with the usual nonsense please...

[halfpenny] 19/7/2019 11:28

Hey, anyone know about a mega deal in the pipeline... me thinks a takeover...waiting for some lovely news....

[davr0s] 18/7/2019 18:46

Why sell if you see them as a great company? I'm looking to add if they can break up further

[leavers] 18/7/2019 16:45

I’ve completely exited my position today. Let’s see where they go. I’d happily re-buy them in the future as it’s a fantastic company.

[yump] 18/7/2019 12:47

Thanks for that summary, I've been keeping an eye on this since selling last year, main reason being the p/e and pretty much the same reasons you've posted for wondering where/how more or equivalent growth will come from to support the rating.

Perhaps the difficulty is really because consistent growth is actually not that easy. They've done very well over quite a few years, so imo now the question is more whether its a stable buy and hold for modest growth say over 5 years, or try to find something else that is say on a p/e of 10-15, that might be poised for the same sort of growth and rating increase that IDEA have had.

Also I can never get my head around the treatments of EBITDA, exceptionals, reported and statutory profits to reconcile those with a real view of performance. So for me, there is 'insurance' in buying at a lower p/e in hope. Unfortunately there aren't many simple businesses just expanding organically and selling widgets, to invest in.

[leavers] 18/7/2019 10:28

As I posted on 14/5, my concern was that EPS growth in these results wouldn’t be that impressive and indeed 4.8p EPS and 15% growth is the lowest in many years. I don’t believe it’s right to dismiss this, it's integral to value of our shareholdings. At 146 the shares trade on a current year PER of 30 and a PEG of 2, toppy stuff. The focus on recurring revenues adds a strong defensiveness to the share price, it doesn’t necessarily add growth to the bottom line and support a higher share price. The management and brokers are looking for a doubling of EBITDA to £30m over 3 years to 2022 - the simple maths tells you that even if organic growth accelerates to 15%, the company would need to add £8m of acquisition-generated EBITDA in that period, equivalent perhaps to around £50-100m of enterprise value acquired (at the current 8% its more like £10-11m needed). The company has always run almost no leverage (one of the reasons I have been invested) but to achieve its targets in my view it is going to need to push net debt/editda towards 2-3 area over the next few years to avoid further share placings. That isn't crazily high especially with the strong recurring revenues but nevertheless the risks rise for shareholders. I don’t mean to be down on the company - their track record is absolutely first class and they keep delivering. But as an investment I have become less excited about the company in the last 12-18 months because to support their growth targets and a x25-30 valuation they will need bigger and bigger acquisitions which in turn will require dilution of shareholders or weakening of the balance sheet and greater execution risk. The 180p broker target to me rehires EPS of 7p+ and I don’t see that around the corner. Great company but not quite so sure a great investment.

[gargleblaster] 17/7/2019 11:02

No comment from riv yet! He must be on hols! All looks good from where I'm standing - particularly the guidance regarding new customers.

[wanttowin] 16/7/2019 21:39

prelims were on the 17th last year.

[sharesoc] 16/7/2019 11:28

The Ideagen presentation from our recent London company seminar can be found in our members area here:
There is also a seminar report.

To access the presentation, you'll need to be a full member of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit organisation that supports individual shareholders and campaigns for shareholder rights. If you're not already a member you can join here:

Once you've joined, you'll receive an invitation to register for our "members network" private social network, from where you'll be able to access the presentation (and presentations on 100s of other meetings). If you're already a member and have any difficulty accessing the report, please do not hesitate to contact us here:

[halfpenny] 10/7/2019 13:35

IDEA next support level at £1.40. Now its testing the level and could head back to £1.50 quickly and head towards £1.60 with news flow... now a target for a takeover especially with the £ falling even more as we all head towards a hard NO Deal

[leavers] 08/7/2019 16:47

I sold 1/4 of my holding at 146 on the way up and and 1/4 at 153. I think a potentially big opportunity to re-establish full position 130-135 area. I'll start adding again if we see 135 though its 50:50 to me that we will

[halfpenny] 08/7/2019 12:23

IDEA next support level at £1.40. Now its testing the level and could head back to £1.50 quickly and head towards £1.60 with news flow... now a target for a takeover especially with the £ falling even more as we all head towards a hard NO Deal Brexit!!!

[sharesoc] 02/7/2019 12:07

Ideagen present at our London growth company seminar on the 10th July. If anyone is interested, you can book your place here:

[rivaldo] 28/6/2019 10:39

IDEA are presenting to Sharesoc on 10th July if anyone fancies going:

[rivaldo] 26/6/2019 22:48

Perhaps Gresham have been buying more. Certainly healthy interest this afternoon - including 130,000 shares bought in two lots at the full closing 155p offer price.

[melody9999] 26/6/2019 17:05

or a technical break as 150p has been holding this back for the last 6 months

[soundbuy] 26/6/2019 16:25

Hmmm....................news?