I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[roundtheworld] 22/7/2024 09:26

Luckily there’s not much drilling or activity going on with i3 so the wildfires will have limited affect.

As a result though, the next financials are going to be somewhere between terrible & bad which will be exasperated by the low AECO price.

The next few months could be rocky for shareholders.

[upwego] 22/7/2024 09:25

Took £10k here for up and coming drilling :)

Good luck all.

[kaos3] 22/7/2024 08:51

has anyone looked at where i3e assets are and where the huge wildfires are?

[pretax2] 21/7/2024 08:09

As a longterm investor it’s generally advisable to ignore macro economic and market cycles and comments from election candidates often don’t materialise once elected.
I3E is undervalued imv, so I’m happy to pick up 10%+ divi and ride the waves which may or may not affect the company.
I would advise folk to read Charles Ellis’s essay ‘The Losers Game’ which is available free on the internet. Stock investing is seen as a losers game. My take away from this is that you need to stay ‘in’ a losers game and let everyone around you make mistakes. Thus I3E is a buy and a hold at this level.

[jw97] 20/7/2024 23:52

Andy, you may or may not be right about OPEC (although the fact that the US tried to pressure them to increase production suggests that they have more than a little influence), but the price of oil is a function of both supply and demand. How does the US control the latter?

Survey evidence is that the breakeven point for new wells in the US ranges from $59 to $70 depending on the nature of the field. Why would any rational company be complicit in driving the price of oil down to $60?

What Trump says he's going to do and what he does don't always tally - the border wall that never was being an obvious example.

[jw97] 20/7/2024 22:04

Andy, the Chair of the Fed has recently stated that he is increasingly confident that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target (the last CPI reading was 3%), and that interest rates will start to fall before inflation falls to the target level. That is, in his view inflation is already being beaten. Driving down the price of energy from this starting point could arguably risk deflation, with serious economic consequences for the US.

I'd also note that when energy price inflation was much higher the Biden administration had no joy in getting OPEC and other producers to increase production to bring prices down. The potential uncooperative response of OPEC to any increase in US production i.e. production cuts of their own is one variable that doesn't seem to have been factored in to your thoughts on what the market will price in, not to mention a potential stimulus package in China and growing demand generally from Asia.

I'm not sure that the US can dictate the price of oil globally these days.

[moonshot3] 20/7/2024 21:47

Isn't the Trump administration more likely to accelerate LNG export approvals?

[jw97] 20/7/2024 19:54

Fandagle, thanks for your reply. I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, so perhaps you could help me out. What do you mean by 'essence'. Are you saying that even if the oil market was in deficit in, say, early 2025 that somehow the possibility that US production would be higher in 2030 (using your five year lead time - Trump wouldn't take office until January 2025) would mean that oil prices would still weaken? Wouldn't that imply the complete collapse of the basic economics of supply and demand? Again, and sorry to repeat myself, but I'd also be interested in your thinking as to how Trump would ramp up drilling activity, especially during a recession when, as you note, oil companies would be laying off staff. How do you increase production with fewer people?

[tonynorstrom1] 20/7/2024 19:38

"a blind man in a galloping horse can see that coming, yet you are in denial......"

ok Fanny but with respect - many on here will be doubting your cristal ball after your bum call on the dividend.

[tonynorstrom1] 20/7/2024 19:32

"In some respects your correct as drilling won’t show results straight away, it will only be realized around 5 years later"

Does anyone understand that pile of Sh!t - you toss pot !

[fandagle] 20/7/2024 18:44

In some respects your correct as drilling won’t show results straight away, it will only be realized around 5 years later, but it is the essence of what he does that will dictate the market conditions not only for medium to long term but also short term. Oil companies will do what they always do and produce oil at any given time, laying off 1000s of sub contractors in a recession is neither here nor there for them, believe me! As I’ve said a few times the concensus of opinion is there will be a recession around Q2 - 2025!

[jw97] 20/7/2024 17:46

Fandagle, simply stating that Trump will ramp up drilling doesn't make it so. The question is how? Could you please elaborate. Also, if its blindingly obvious that a global recession is on the horizon do you agree that this might also be clear to the energy companies? Are you seriously suggesting that rational energy company CEOs would ramp up supply in the face of a recession-driven decline in demand at the expense of industry profitability?

[fandagle] 20/7/2024 16:47

They say the truth hurts Tony! Clearly Trump will ramp up the drilling program thus keeping oil and gas prices low, thats what he does, his mantra, he needs his rednecks and hicks to fill up the tank for a few dollars then go kill some Gatters. The other concern is Chinas economy crashing early 2025, this will drag the world into recession in 2025 no matter what Trump does, a blind man in a galloping horse can see that coming, yet you are in denial......

[tonynorstrom1] 20/7/2024 11:43

Your an idiot Andy - I would get more sense talking to a brick!

And by the way - I think jw
Is playing you - he appears to be very skeptical that you have anything sensible to add - but being the halfwit you are - you actually think you are adding something!

Off to work ? Come on mate - paper rounds finish in the mornings - surely?

[tonynorstrom1] 20/7/2024 11:27

I haven’t tipped toed around anything Andy - my only connection to I3E is as a shareholder.

And who are “we” - you and that other cretin Fanny - you keep good company! You’ve been outed here as a deramper / perveyor of false information.

I see also you have not denied being a deramper and non shareholder which begs the question - what are you doing here.

[jw97] 20/7/2024 09:40

Andy, thanks for your reply. I guess one question I have about your argument is whether you think that the shareholders of US energy companies would allow a level of ill-disciplined production such that oil and gas prices end up 'in the gutter'? As I understand it its these companies and not the US government that actually does the drilling.

[aberdeenandy] 19/7/2024 21:56

Tony.

I notice you haven’t denied being some sort of paid investor influencer.

You also haven’t commented on Trump’s number 1 priority to bring inflation down and start with hammering the oil & gas price to spear-head that. That is all very real.

You say I have no shame. Take a look in the mirror mate.

Oil crumbling as we speak and it’s only the start.

[aberdeenandy] 19/7/2024 21:52

JW

Of course I’m swayed by factors like Trump just saying he’ll do everything in his power to force oil and gas prices down. I’m flexible and react.

“Drill baby drill” from a guy who honours his rhetoric is incredibly important for the industry and the market as a whole.

If you believe Trump will get in (which seems odds on) then oil and gas will be in the gutter end of year and going forward and markets will start to price it in now.

[owenski] 19/7/2024 18:15

I dont' think Trump's priorities are making sure a board has enough blokes wearing dresses wearing rainbow coloured lanyards so that they meet their diversity quota. Woke he aint.