I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[reg1967] 22/8/2018 07:33

KierI won't be getting worried until about the 20th sept, just give them them the 90 days, IMO

[kierandoberman] 21/8/2018 21:53

Ceo hoped to revel JV in July, we are now in the last trading week of August ! Ceo hoped deal would be done before September dead line of NDA ! News should land this week if not pi will be getting worried that there's problem !

[che7win] 21/8/2018 20:22

Looking forward to the voxmarkets interview tomorrow

[ducati2345] 21/8/2018 18:27

That's what chamberlain said in 1939.

[showme01] 21/8/2018 16:01

Can sell 25,000 shares in one go on line so mm are short. Been a long time since they would take so many in one transaction. Guess there is a background buyer.

[reg1967] 21/8/2018 15:48

Some nice buys coming in this afternoon :-)

[showme01] 21/8/2018 15:48

No bets for me. This is a sure thing.

[ducati2345] 21/8/2018 15:26

I'd say that is a fair assumption

[fardels bear] 21/8/2018 10:51

It strikes me that we have all placed our bets and the wheel is spinning.

[reg1967] 21/8/2018 10:46

This must be the lull before storm

[highly geared] 20/8/2018 19:05

Mr T, superb post. What these BB’s are for, intelligent and informed opinion based on peer group analysis.

[showme01] 20/8/2018 18:30

Great comparison Mr T! It is what i3e needs to get close to fair value. Well done.

[craffert] 20/8/2018 14:55

Great post Mr T

[mr. t] 20/8/2018 12:18

Premier Oil announced today that Tolmount, a 500bcf (96mmboe) gas project in the southern north sea has been sanctioned with first gas targeted in Q4 2020. Peak production is 300 mmscfd (58 kboepd).



There are numbers that can be used to compare Tolmount to Liberator.

1. NPV
PMO commissioned RISC to provide a competent person report to inform the E.ON acquisition (which included Tolmount). It gave PMO's 50% Tolmount share on 31 Dec 2015 a $89m 2p post tax NPV10 under price scenario B - which I'd say is a reasonable scenario as it assumes $86 Brent in 2019.

That gives $178m NPV for the whole Tolmount field. At that stage RISC assessed Tolmount's 2p reserves to be 339bcf/59.4mmboe.

See p.70 of for NPV, p.59 for reserves, and p.159 for price scenarios.

Compare to Liberator's CPR NPV for Phase 1 (11mmboe) of $200m - a fifth of Tolmount's reserves at the time but more valuable.

So Liberator has a greater NPV and is a significantly higher quality asset (NPV per mmboe) than Tolmount.

2. Reserves upside and resources
PMO's CPR report gave Tolmount 2p reserves of 59.4mmboe. Based on today's announcement, PMO has upped that to 96mmboe. They claim upto 1tcf of total reserves and resources (178mmboe) on slide 21 of:



Compare to Liberator. Liberator should have 33mmboe reserves once the FDP is approved (Liberator phase I + Liberator phase II east) and 80mmboe total reserves + resources.

So while Tolmount has done well since PMO's CPR, increasing reserves by 60% and having total reserves plus resources of 3x initial reserves - I3e will soon have increased Liberator's reserves by 3x the initial figure and will have total reserves plus resources of 7x initial reserves.

Liberator has more upside than Tolmount from developing resources into reserves.

3. Capex, first gas/oil and IRR
According to slide 19 of gross capex of Tolmount is $550m. That's for the 96mmboe. First gas is 2 years away in Q4 2020 and IRR is >50%.

With Liberator, we're expecting first oil in one year (Q4 2019) with capex of $200m and an IRR of 160% (in AGR TRACS's CPR).

Compared to Tolmount, Liberator can be developed for less than half the price, in half the time, and has a significantly superior IRR.

4. Further upside
Go to p.132 of to see RISC has assumed Tolmount's 2p recovery factor to be 70% (3p is assumed to be 75%). A high number, leaving little room for upside.

In comparison, AGR TRACS has assumed Liberator Phase 1 to have a recovery factor of 28% and Phase II 35% - or 34% for the field as a whole. But Blake style recovery factors of 48% may be achieved (which management think is likely, and is assumed in 3p/3c/High scenario) which gives significant upside.

Liberator has more upside from improved recovery factors.

5. Summary

In summary, compared to Tolmount, Liberator:

- Is higher quality.
- Has a greater NPV.
- Has more upside from turning resources into reserves.
- Is lower cost.
- Is quicker to develop.
- Has a better IRR.
- Has more upside by increasing recovery factors.

Given that Tolmount has just been sanctioned by its owners and is marketed as an attractive project, the outlook for Liberator looks good to me.

[fardels bear] 20/8/2018 11:00

Or maybe not.

[coscos] 20/8/2018 10:46

Yes, 90 days ends 24th September but all indications point to an announcement earlier. Run up will start towards end of month with beg September the most likely time for actual news.

[jungmana] 20/8/2018 10:25

24th September the 90 days ends

[ducati2345] 20/8/2018 10:23

Yep but in theory and to. Elaine's seem to be more theory than fact with i3e, we only have 12 trading days to wzit till 90 days is up

[coscos] 20/8/2018 10:00

Reckon another week before we enter countdown phase.

[dannyboy2000] 19/8/2018 00:39

Wow peargar, you've pulled a shocker on so many levels lol

[ducati2345] 17/8/2018 13:56

Are you a bit backward, have you done any research on i3e and realise what they are about, this isn't a ukog type affair they have pretty much proven reserves, funding on way and a proven BOD who hold massive stakes. Maybe it will go to 95p unlikely but big deal if it does, it will only go up again on fundi g, on drilling, on production, on sales etc etc

[fardels bear] 17/8/2018 13:48

Well, if you're right you'll be retired soon, so happy days ahead.