Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[123gmtrader] 29/3/2019 10:12

Correct capricious.
Where they will pay more for the feedstock, increasing the quantity will improve the profit.
At 70% plant utilisation there is a return of cash of 35% where as 80% gives 57% and 90% gives 90%. They have factored in that the cost of feed stock will go up already.

The obvious problems or negatives are Australian plant still not sorted out and then the increase in loss due to restructuring.

On the plus side, revenues are higher than forecasts.

[capricious] 29/3/2019 09:25

They’ve understated the report. Under report, over deliver. It’s actually a pretty decent update. 2018 was as expected. 2019 will be the best year to date.

Feedstock via US energy departments is very interesting. Hydrodec are uniquely positioned to capture any shift in US oil recycling focus. I’ve posted before but with proper funding, they can now compete with better and larger bids for feedstock. I see they are prioritising volume first, over margins. At first this may seem counterproductive but margins will come with a larger steady supply of feedstock (larger contracts etc).

[tonytyke2] 29/3/2019 07:49

Yep, definitely still in transition but showing some optimism moving forward.

'we are already seeing the green shoots of growth in feedstock supply and I am confident that volumes and therefore production will exceed our original expectations. As such, 2019 will prove to be an exciting year for the business as we build on the work undertaken following the review'

[1gw] 29/3/2019 07:20

Still at the "work in progress" stage it would seem.

[1gw] 28/3/2019 19:13

News tomorrow then, I presume.

[melbourne18] 15/3/2019 14:28

Much higher than Caroline Brown, who he's replacing, I believe she held 0 shares! Looks like a vote of confidence to me...

[1gw] 12/3/2019 18:58

"Chris Ellis holds 33,011 ordinary shares in the Company."

Hmmm. I would have hoped his retained holding, as an indicator of his level of belief in the potential, might have been higher.

[vitamal] 12/3/2019 15:12

It perhaps confirms the reason given for his departure

[capricious] 12/3/2019 10:31

operationally, 2019 should be the best year yet.

Good to see Chris back.

[1gw] 12/3/2019 08:16

News by the end of the month. Not sure I like the thought of 2019 being a turnaround year. I thought we'd just done one of those.

[capricious] 07/3/2019 14:50

They’ve had a pretty good write up in a research note, in late February.

They gave a target of £1, with longer term c £2.5... obviously counting on successful execution at each step.

Of course, it’s HYR, so the share price drops.

[vitamal] 07/3/2019 11:18

I assume no news is bad news?

[capricious] 01/3/2019 11:16

I think they have 3 months to report on final year. I’m hoping they use the time to flesh out more about the ongoing plans, and add that to the next RNS.

[1gw] 01/3/2019 09:08

So was that 28th December update all we're going to get on current trading before the 1Q update in (presumably) April?

[vitamal] 23/1/2019 12:47

Doesn't seem like there are any punters looking for a positive update any time soon

[corrientes] 31/12/2018 10:04

I wonder how long it will take for the share price to reach zero.Its making a jolly good attempt at it.

[capricious] 22/11/2018 14:17

Looks that way, long term holders wiped out in that respect. Apart from the fall in sp, and recent dilution, you could probably see a route back to 3p or 5p, with the turn in output... can anyone see £5? Funds & reduction in debt was required, unfortunately this was the price.

[1savvyinvestor] 13/11/2018 07:29

Unfortunately the consolidation has made this untradeable - which is probably they wanted

[vitamal] 05/11/2018 16:26

Buys at 75Sell at 68

[capricious] 05/11/2018 14:43

What would help, is if they released forward projections of revenue. Presumably the IIs had some presentations/discussions, around future potential.

The good news is that operationally, they are much better than they were and any improvement, is from a low base on output. I’d be very interested in some Approx estimates at different theoretical output slabs, up to the maximum achievable.

Quantifying the slicker collaboration etc, is harder but they must have some idea.

[1gw] 01/11/2018 15:41

So as the dust settles, it seems to me we now have the following major shareholders declared:

28.1% Andrew Black
14.1% Miton
9.4% Axa
6.4% Thesis
6.0% Killik
4.2% Gresham House

So about 68% accounted for. Hugo Bulmer has gone under 3%.

Not a bad shareholder base, I would say, and presumably looking forward to some solid gains on the 75p placing price. Just need the company to deliver now...

[1gw] 25/10/2018 07:55

Could have been worse. At least they raised a bit of extra money. Not a very impressive show of support from the directors I would say.

[the millipede] 16/10/2018 15:47

I imagine if anyone had been willing to buy at a premium..... they would have done that!

[1savvyinvestor] 14/10/2018 21:52

The £10 million is already raised. They just won't get much or any more from pis if price stays this low . If they had raised at a premium they would have had much better chance of stoking a bull run . Very badly handled imho