Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 06/2/2018 09:54

I didn't expect it to fall this far I must say, but the wider risk-off/panic on the markets this week has forced it down. Seems irrational as the company is now (hopefully) more or less profitable, and there seems little chance of it going bust?There's clearly work still to do to make the company generate decent returns, but today's market cap of £12M seems too low based on assets and future potential IMO. I am considering freeing up some cash if I can to buy some more.NAI

[capricious] 05/2/2018 10:01

The MMs are setting the prices but if you've got willing sellers that will take a relative discount, on small volume, then the price will happily drop.

[capricious] 01/2/2018 17:04

Not sure but did you clock the large sells under the radar literally a week before the RNS?

I just think the unrealistic expectations and the opinion piece before the RNS, gave the MMs something to trade off of, to create volume on the down step. For a long while we got a slow steady rise based on real progress, the company announces positive EBITDA, and suddenly we are back where we almost started.

Also having feedstock constraints does limit a much bigger improvement. Going into the year this should naturally ease but by how much I don't know. They need to find another closed loop deal with a big utility. No reason why they can't. The flying US economy can't but help.

[tonytyke2] 01/2/2018 15:12

Good point, but IMO possibly this could be perceived to be misleading investors here somewhat. I was thinking forced seller/sellers possibly...? but the share price seems to have gone too far down now and taken out all the recent traders/investors? Even today 7m v 4m & down 6.8%.......

What do you think?

[capricious] 01/2/2018 14:56

If they are balanced as you show, then it's the MMs controlling the price to suit the maximisation of volume and therefore commission.

People on the other thread were saying it's going to be a 10 bagger, the problem with that, is the MMs don't have enough stock to allow that. I imagine they were running pretty tight as there seemed to be a lot of price control/spread movement when we reached 3.2. Obviously if people didn't set themselves up for disappointment, then there would be no driving force to allow the price to drop by 30%

[tonytyke2] 01/2/2018 14:37

capricious, interesting point you make. I have noted the buys and sells looked reasonably obvious to spot since the trading update on the 29th (with some smaller number of trades in mid-range of oourse, so difficult to know for sure). But when adding up the volumes since the 29th, we have reported 29m buys and 27m sells up to 2.30 p.m. today, but the share price has been pulled down by more than 30% in the same period.

Mmmmmm.......Why is that then?

TT

[capricious] 01/2/2018 12:33

There seems to be a lot of actual buying and yet the price drops.

[cyberbub] 31/1/2018 13:14

It looks set for a possible relief rebound to 2.3 - 2.4p IMO. What will happen medium and long term is a separate matter of course...

[1savvyinvestor] 31/1/2018 08:23

Personally speaking I am relatively new to HYR. I bought in back in October as indeed I was alerted through twitter to its potential. While Twitter does tend to get rampy or indeed derampy there are a lot of new people looking at HYR and doing good research. Investors who have been here for years will be tired of the abysmal share price performance historically but I do believe that recent interest is due to some fundamental changes in the business and its ability to grow from here. Aviva are gone and that massive overhang is dealt with. Oil prices are much higher and this should underpin the business. They do have to resolve he feedstock issue though. I'm now planning to be a long term holder and am sincerely hoping I have got on board just as the corner is being turned. GLA

[tonytyke2] 31/1/2018 08:03

Well I am still in (:-)...... not sold any and looking to add more.

capricious those are decent points, this share does appear to attract lots of short term traders.
TT

[capricious] 30/1/2018 21:56

The problem is you get a cohort, especially on other forums, setting ridiculous expectations. There were posts highlighting a job advert, which suddenly meant there must be a license deal. I read the job advert and nothing about it to me, said there was an imminent license deal for this RNS.

You then get people ramping on twitter, setting up the MMs for a field day as people offload, with a nudge from the opinion piece just before the announcement. The piece gave no additional info, except someone's opinion, about there being a lot still to do.

The update was exactly as expected, it's people's expectations that are not aligned.


It's sad, because I knew this would be the reaction, it's the same now every time Hydrodec are due to release an RNS. You get the same group going way over the top, quoting things that if you have watched Hydrodec as long as I have, are cringe worthy, if not outright stupid. So the progress in the share price is then wasted as the herd turns.

[gimmetheloot] 30/1/2018 20:24

This is BUY time ;-)))

[weirdbeardmt] 30/1/2018 20:13

Surely no one predicted this drop. Was the market update really that underwhelming? Or something else going on?

[cyberbub] 30/1/2018 18:09

Looks like stronger support at 2p, touch wood. If I had some spare cash I would have been topping up for the medium term today...NAI

[trentendboy] 30/1/2018 09:03

pumped and dumped

such a classic case

[brucie5] 29/1/2018 21:36

Chart looks good still, just going to rise a bit more slowly than the exponential curve we were looking for. Unfortunately, it won't let me paste, but looks like a technical fall to me. I'm thinking it will rise from here.

[tonytyke2] 29/1/2018 14:34

sounds right cyberbub.....I have topped up again!

[cyberbub] 29/1/2018 14:09

Someone desperate to dump 2M shares there... stop loss tripped by the MMs perhaps?

[yump] 29/1/2018 09:34

Reading back, the improvement does seem to be progressive, not up and down.

[capricious] 29/1/2018 09:13

If I'm not mistaken, 2018 has already started at a higher base, with 60% higher transformer oil sales mix, compared to 52% for full year 2017.

The position should improve, the US weather conditions probably exacerbated feedstock competition, which should ease up.



Lol, I was just writing the same but I took longer to finish it then your post above. :)

[tonytyke2] 29/1/2018 09:11

Interesting reading between the lines that the more profitable/higher margin transformer oil margins (that represented 52% in the trading update), is already now running at 60% of total Group oil sales, with scope for further improvement through the year.

Encouraging sales update…….’2018 has begun strongly in terms of sales orders in the US and Australia’............

Capricious definitely agree with you re recent traders.
TT

[yump] 29/1/2018 09:11

Yes, in many cases 'the market' means 'a few traders' on the day. The market will decide over the next few months.

[capricious] 29/1/2018 09:07

I would think the drop has more to with traders trading a drop on any announcement (barring one that reported success in turning base metal into gold). The statement is almost exactly what we were expecting, or at least I was, so I cannot see the content driving the fall. The share price was pushed up before the RNS, it's now being traded against.

[mortimer7] 29/1/2018 08:42

Decent update but judging by the share price reaction the market recognises the scale of the step from EBITDA profitability to PBT.