Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 28/9/2018 06:29

Disappointing.

[tonytyke2] 27/9/2018 11:24

Well they did update on the 10th Sept to say they were on track to be announced by end of Sept, so we shall see.

[capricious] 27/9/2018 10:45

Yeah, there was never a specific date, and it’s always good to keep expectations on an even keel.

[corrientes] 27/9/2018 07:44

expected by end of month, but not guaranteed.

[tonytyke2] 27/9/2018 07:43

Crikes, you were up bright and early this morning to check that 1gw (:-)

Must be tomorrow then.

[1gw] 27/9/2018 06:06

And still no statement.

[1gw] 26/9/2018 09:10

They're making us wait for that September strategic review announcement. Tomorrow I guess, rather than slip it out on a Friday.

[tonytyke2] 26/9/2018 08:50

Thanks for that info 1savvyinvestor, very interesting indeed. Looks to be some buying activity coming through today.

[1savvyinvestor] 25/9/2018 17:23

well - unless someone has seen something significant those two sells today should prove extremely unwise . Strategic review nearly on us and it could be really interesting.....

[1savvyinvestor] 23/9/2018 06:34

https://twitter.com/Jay1_AIM/status/1042822814498267137Very interesting read

[pr100] 17/9/2018 13:58

Anyone dumping a whack of shares is an ominous development. Why is the share price heading to its all-time low? Is that somehow hopeful?

[pr100] 17/9/2018 13:12

The appointment of Mr Black's accountant strikes me as an ominous development.

[capricious] 17/9/2018 10:37

Good post 1gw,


As to Sale, partnership, placing... I’m not thinking sale but its interesting that they appointed Mr Black’s accountant. It’s possible they have some form of tie up with the new European partners Mr Black has. Hydrodec recently announced the patents covering Europe. Although in reality, focusing on the growth market in the US, discounts that hypotheses.

I guess there needs to be a placing for future growth at some point but would prefer if they covered central costs first. At this share price level, even a small change would mean a big difference.

[1gw] 14/9/2018 18:26

Nice to see the share price recovering a bit.

I had some time to look at the financials today. A big chunk of the loans moving from "non-current liabilities" to "current liabilities" should help to focus the board's minds when it comes to their strategic review. $15m net current liabilities is pretty scary on the face of it.

But, they still have $15m of net assets (of which $6m is intangibles). So there's something there (for equity holders) if they can convince a strategic partner that they have a path to sustainable profitability at Canton. And $0.5m of "operational EBITDA" per month (albeit only 2 months so far) seems like a good step in that direction.

Not long to wait now. Sale, partnership, placing?

"We are excited about what lies ahead for the Company and its shareholders" doesn't sound like they expect to wipe out the equity just yet...

[tonytyke2] 12/9/2018 15:39

Your comments are absolutely spot on capricious, the increased focus on Canton IMO looks like a sound business decision.

[capricious] 11/9/2018 11:09

Not sure you can describe a business with a plant based in a country with the largest market, and biggest economy, as a one-trick pony. Technically it’s true but if the US market is depressed, its almost guaranteed to be in any other regions. As in my previous post, the AUS market cannot be compared like for like with other regions.

I think it’s time to solely focus on the US, gain market share, and show (global) future partners, the potential of the new reactors.

[capricious] 11/9/2018 10:56

Lot of negativity from some. I’m actually pleasantly surprised. The EBITDA has almost achieved the ‘guesstimate’, I put forward at the start of the year... but to be fair, I didn’t specify Canton at the operational level, although that’s the way I think of it. I discounted Australia a long time ago, the logistics, the geography, the fractured nature, have made it an unwanted Merkle relative. You can’t simply compare the AUS market to all other regions.

Obviously you’d rather have the Australian plant adding value but disposing of it, is not a negative, in the way losing the UK was. I’d rather they consolidate in the US, increase market share, and finally prove a profitable business model.

[corrientes] 11/9/2018 07:33

Net current liabilities haven't moved for st least three years (ie it hasn't deteriorated further) so clearly the very wealthy Mr Black could have taken this particular capital loss in his stride long before now.

[1savvyinvestor] 11/9/2018 06:50

That's normal accounting practice. Going concern for next 12 months is standard language

[pr100] 11/9/2018 06:44

Because Andrew Black doesn't want to force the company into administration?

[jason_scrap] 10/9/2018 23:02

Or there is an buyer lined up for Aus business, and the price exceeds the debt...?Why extend the interest free loan unless absolutely sure of repayment...?

[trentendboy] 10/9/2018 16:41

The levels of debt and the repayment dates make for shocking reading.

Impossible to pay them back on time and hence why they say they are only a going concern for 12 months.

Best I can see is debt being turned into equity leading to massive dilution.

Hard to see this being a standout investment even things are looking better than before.

[corrientes] 10/9/2018 13:38

Then it seems a bit daft to say 'we are excited about what lies ahead for the Company and its shareholders'.

Maybe he means after crushing the existing share holders out of existence,and letting the insiders have their fill in the 'new' company.

[yump] 10/9/2018 10:06

Well the EU patent stuff is all very well, but is that going to lead to some 'initiative' in the EU, or is it (hope) just a protection against someone else using it.