Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[luminoso] 01/6/2015 09:39

Disappointing share price reaction to news. i guess the delay did not help.

[mortimer7] 01/6/2015 08:24

Canton commissioned:-

[capricious] 26/5/2015 09:40

The MMs turned it on the familiar 10p level after letting it get there.

I think I posted earlier on here, my short-medium term target was 10-11p, which it hit but the time-frame I had in mind was over 3 months... that would include the inevitable pull backs after hitting significant levels (e.g 10p).

When I saw it rise quickly I tend to think like almost every other time, it reverses just as quickly (if not more so). As you say we need some news to help matters now. We haven't so far, and I'm 'guessing' it is in part due to the nature of the tests (500 hour oil etc) which take 4 weeks to run.

[luminoso] 22/5/2015 16:24

An update on Canton would not go amiss. Each afternoon this week has seen another leg down.

[spike_1] 22/5/2015 11:56

Thanks for that VITA

[mortimer7] 19/5/2015 16:25

Good news then, because although that's a slight downward adjustment from their last valuation, it's a more realistic reflection of oil price pressure and still well above todays 9.25p.

[vitamal] 19/5/2015 16:01

Edison - indicative valuation£108m = 14.5p per share

[themariner] 13/5/2015 11:23

I'm pleased too that things appear to be back on track after a period of uncertainty. I bought into this as a kind of "story stock coming good after many years" and saw a business that had built a credible management team and repaired a questionable balance sheet, made a shrewd acquisition. And it has IMHO the preverbial moat. Then came the accident. Now this is history, I hope to see this reflected in the share price. Now we need the profit, a decent growth trajectory and the possibility of a divi. I know there have been sniffs of normalised adjusted run rate ebitda but nothing beats a decent unadjusted pre-tax profit, with growth, progressive income and lots of free cash flow to come!

[capricious] 12/5/2015 12:17

They've held Hydrodec on a basis to sell for some while but am unaware if they have done in a significant manner.

[luminoso] 12/5/2015 12:13

Thanks, cap. Yes, share price looking good.
Good point, TR1 also.

[tr1] 12/5/2015 12:11

Price ticking up,could be LEF selling has finished for now?

[capricious] 12/5/2015 11:33

It could be that if there has been any sales, it's not as Superfine since the accreditation process is ongoing (or whatever the testing sign-off is called).

They mentioned that due to the nature of their improved tech, testing could take a month, which probably means throughout May. I really can't say for sure, especially as the trains are being commissioned sequentially.


The document is put together over many weeks, so not all running updates (e.g how the testing is currently progressing) can get included.


It's very close though, and what's clear is from a standing start in June, they are confident of exceeding previous output records. There are not many businesses that could report that, which is partly why the share price is continuing it's drift up.

[luminoso] 12/5/2015 10:22

If first oil at Canton was to be on May 10th as stated in annual report, seems strange not to have an announcement confirming that.

[etarip] 10/5/2015 14:18

capicious:

Thanks for your post.

I like what the company is doing but the lack of any forecast on the financial side worries me. Also the proposed new plant in the UK may well take a lot of effort and eat up profits from the other plants for a long time to come.

I think I will keep the shares I have and wait to see what transpires.

[capricious] 10/5/2015 12:02

Hi etarip,

Check edisoninvestmentresearch.com. They are currently providing coverage for Hydrodec, although they have not put out a comprehensive note since the fire in Dec 13. It's free to sign up.


It's never my policy to suggest either buying or selling but have frequently posted about Hydrodec on here and elsewhere.


Not withstanding the comment above, up till now my personal barometer was to hold off due to market conditions and the long void before production restarted, and it being an easy one way bet for the MMs when acting as middlemen.


6 months ago I posted that by mid year 2015 crude would stage a recovery, touch-wood this continues and with increased stability.


The proposed UK plant is a long way off, although now with a majority conservative win my opinion of the success of the (NSIP)planning process has increased greatly. In the meantime the consolidation/securing of market share with OSS + Eco-Oil and possibly the weakening of competitors, should provide a good platform for Hydrodec's long term goals. Margins on fuel oil are pretty slim but we should find out soon enough whether merging and changing the business model(s) has improved the bottomline.


The business in Australia was sub-scale, with the move to tolling in Wagga Wagga, we should now have a profitable business with what I think will be the beginnings of a strong relationship with Southern Oil (SOR).

We are on the cusp of the Canton 2.0 reboot, with 50% more capacity and reactors that produce 500 hour oil (with an approved carbon offset credit methodology), few of which can produce in the US. The reactors are also initially around 10% more efficient over the old, with 'likely' room for more. Production for the remaining 6 months is set to beat that of the last functioning year of the old tech. With similar sentiment with regards to SOR, the joint venture with G&S is yet to show the full potential which is already there, it just hasn't come through due to the fire. G&S have also spent a lot of capital and time on strengthening the venture.

I don't know what the average purchase price was whilst they were building up feedstock in Q4 2014, there is a good chance that it will be favourable over the coming second half.


Before the fire, the share price reached 14-15p, I don't think we are going to suddenly jump to that near term but it does put the current level in perspective. Personally I believe we are in a much stronger position than just before the fire but we wont get significant movement on the share price until real numbers can be put on future profitability. Without any further shocks, my guess is the share price will drift up*, helped by the board's record of execution.

* reasonable target 10-11p range (short term).

[etarip] 09/5/2015 09:26

Are there any brokers notes on this company?
I can not find in the annual report any indication of what future profits will be or am I missing something?
Are there any reasons that I might double my investment here?
Perhaps some one with in depth knowledge of this company might be kind enough to supply me with some answers. I already have a small investment here which I bought over a year ago at 12p and I am looking for a reason to buy more.

[capricious] 07/5/2015 16:30

And the oil qualifies for a carbon credit - I'm not factoring in additional money but as a product/sales differentiator.

[capricious] 07/5/2015 16:27

Yeah, nicely produced document. They mention a later start, I thought it was going to be around this time anyway? I think either the accreditation for 500 hour oil is or will be taking place. It has a around a 4 week lead time to results.

[luminoso] 07/5/2015 14:28

Took a while for the market to digest the report.

[luminoso] 07/5/2015 10:39

May 10th for first oil at Canton acc to Annual Report.

[stevedd] 01/5/2015 12:01

I agree, knowing that Canton is all up and running without issue and producing oil is what everyone has been waiting for since the accident. Luckily it looks like we won't have to wait too much longer.

[luminoso] 01/5/2015 11:55

I think 'first oil at Canton' rns later this month will excite the market more, but all going in the right direction.

[capricious] 01/5/2015 09:38

Excellent news, puts certain posters, naming no names, Kendonagasaki! back in their troll hole.

[mortimer7] 01/5/2015 08:51

RNS: First oil sales from Bomen, Australia; Canton on schedule for first oil in May.


Good news times 2!