Hvivo Share Discussion Threads

[leas1] 19/9/2018 09:13

following link courtesy of 'powderfinger' on the LSE bb.



HVIVO partners seem confident!

[leas1] 19/9/2018 09:03

berny, absolutely. Also bound up with non disclosure in the process. Again speculation but I would guess the ii are a little more informed than we are.

[leas1] 19/9/2018 09:00

a1, it may well be mediocre or not. They could issue a statement at any time before the planned presentation. Regardless of what we speculate I cannot see them deliberately misleading investors. With at least 70% of shares being in the hands of institutions they will decide on whether or not the news is mediocre.
The share price has not continued to collapse on the lack of news, I think it has held up pretty well after the 'herd' made off with their 10%. I think it is only too easy to ignore our current MC and the potential of this compound. If we were sitting at 300p a share then I may be concerned. At this level I am happy with the RvR.

[bernymadoff] 19/9/2018 08:59

Leas I agree 100% that even a positive interview will do wonders for sentiment and the share price I don't expect them to say they have struck a deal with GSK or Johnson and Johnson just yet but something that indicates progress from the last Flu-v update would suffice. At the last count we were told that the company would be talking to the majors following the data release in June. Any advance on that will be great. These deals take months to agree but just as long as we are kept regularly updated about progress then I'm happy.

[a1samu] 19/9/2018 08:44

The Directors have nothing concrete to report in the form of hard facts. There will be a lot of hot air of the future and potential and likely deals with unnamed parties, which will evaporate and the share price will continue to collapse on lack of news. They already released an RNS to say that news is imminent and we are still waiting. If there would be substantial news, like 10x bag value increase, they would not be able to hold it for the interim publication. Any substantial news they would be duty bound by the stock exchange rules to release immediately. As is, expect mediocre rubbish news tomorrow and further share price weakness, after perhaps a bounce, if lucky!

[discojames] 19/9/2018 08:33

Presumably any major news would need an RNS before a proactive interview, though I guess an update wouldn't - just look at what EQT has done with one interview yesterday.

[leas1] 19/9/2018 00:22

berny, I don't use social media other than here and LSE. However, I have been an investor for several months with an average of 19p. On the LSE bb there was only me and another member posting prior to the FLU -v update. That poster decided to sell and trash the company with his comments on the Friday before the trial update. He must have felt sick on the Monday as he took a hit with the loss. I totally agree with your thoughts on the MMs. I had to smile this morning when I saw the 2 small trades that dropped the share price Becoming a tad tedious now. I can only think that those small number of shares that are sold are from investors that have no understanding of what the potential is or they need to free up cash.
I think the MMs are between a 'rock and a hard place'. If they drop the share price too much then there will be a rush to buy or lift it too much and then there will be a stampede for shares from those not wanting to miss the anticipated rerate. Fascinating to watch and see how they manage the expected news.
I have not added to my holding post P11b but fully intend to do on positive news. I think that when the 'herd' arrives it will present a further buying opportunity as they look for a quick 10% and sell. I know I will be averaging up but the risk v reward will be even better for LTHs.
All my opinion of course but it is how I read the current position. Another thing of note in relation to MMs games. It has been a textbook example on how to acquire shares at a discount. The Woodford Group have almost doubled their holding on the back of positive news and kept the share price in a relatively narrow range.

[bernymadoff] 18/9/2018 19:13

Roll on Thursday. Can't imagine the company has laid on a presentation and a Proactive interview with the exec chairman just to say they've made an operational loss! I think most analysts attending the presentation will only be concerned about one thing and that is how far HVO has advanced with monetization of Flu-v. Some of you will also be interested to know that I have sought and received confirmation that my understanding of the situation surrounding NiH P2 results is correct. I posted this over the weekend here.
Today The MMs were hungry all day and there was very little stock on the ask even when it ticked up but they would take up to 35k off me in one hit. The free float is so tight here now that any good news is going to blow the share price into orbit. Nice also to see some new posters on LSE which suggests interest is rising although I do appear to still be the only one on Twitter who posts about HVO.

[leas1] 18/9/2018 17:08

Bill, not forgetting the adjustment (although ever so slight) when the options shares are submitted to market. Last time some posters jumped on it claiming Invesco had reduced when in fact they had remained static.

[billthebank] 18/9/2018 17:04

I cannot believe it Another 100k share purchase just gone through at the close.Woodford still needs another 700k shares to reach his 29% Holding

[bernymadoff] 15/9/2018 12:17

Been reading through the trials again and trying to understand why the outstanding NiH results are now superfluous. What it essentially boils down to is the fact that part of the purpose of the NiH study was to establish suitable endpoints for the vaccine trial. "Given the novel putative mechanism of action of FLU-v, the study employed a panel of study endpoints allowing the Company and the NIH to explore broadly the most relevant efficacy endpoints for future clinical development. These included composite endpoints involving symptom scores and lab-determined biomarkers, such as viral load, as well as symptom-based endpoints that are suited to FLU-v's mechanism of action" One of the NiH endpoints was reduction in viral load which only trended towards statistical significance.

"The trial did not hit its primary endpoint, a composite score combining the occurrence of one flu symptom and changes in viral load, but Mr Phillips blames the miss on it using the “least sensitive assessment of viral shedding."

The outstanding analysis being carried out by NiH is to measure viral load using a more sophisticated Luminex platform which may well give a more positive reading.

However in the NiH study the secondary endpoint of reduction in flu symptoms did achieve statistical significance.

Now bear in mind that at this stage the company was still trying to determine the best endpoints for vaccine trials.

Fast forward to the results from the real world Netherlands trial in June.

The two primary endpoints here were achieved namely "induction of long-lasting T and B cell immunological responses."

The secondary endpoint was also met, namely a "reduction in influenza infection rates and severity and duration of symptoms".

After the Netherlands results came out the company said the results were consistent with the NiH trial and that in its view Flu-v was ready for P3 "with clear disease and symptom-based endpoints identified."

So taken as a whole the two P2 trials were successful in that they established the relevant endpoints and achieved reduction in disease and flu symptoms".

Our former CEO said:

"In the real world, ultimately, it is symptom reduction that is a clinically meaningful outcome if it can reduce the more severe flu disease, which is the concern and significant burden of healthcare systems across the world. This is, to our knowledge, the first time a universal flu vaccine candidate has demonstrated statistically significant reduction in a symptom score in humans. As a result, we believe FLU-v could be the most advanced universal flu vaccine candidate in development. With its potential for significant disease efficacy, broad protection against all flu strains, simplified manufacturing and the ability to be administered as a stand-alone vaccine - rather than in combination with traditional seasonal flu vaccine - FLU-v could help provide relief from flu to people across the globe."

In his Proactive interview after the Netherlands trial the executive Chairman Trevor Phillips said that he thought only one P3 trial would be needed and that the best step would be to partner or sell/license the vaccine/Imutex to a major as they have the capacity to carry out the trial quickly and also bring the product to market much quicker.

In this post I've tried to explain the current situation as simply as possible so that people can understand where we're at and what to expect.

Like I have said before the remaining NiH results are really not necessary to any negotiations with the majors because the endpoints being determined in NiH results will not feature in any P3 trial. It has been superceded by the endpoints established in the Netherlands trial.

Hope it helps.

[bernymadoff] 14/9/2018 20:11

hxxps://www.fiercepharma.com/universal-flu-vaccine-biotech-seeks-big-pharma-partnership-for-phase-3-testing-ceo

Note the part where it says Imutex have been talking to big pharma for years. A deal may be closer than many of us think.

[discojames] 14/9/2018 19:12

Good call Berny, will keep an eye out for this

[bernymadoff] 14/9/2018 18:28

Our chairman will be doing an interview with Proactive Investors next Thursday. Now why would you go on there if you didn't have anything to crow about? I certainly don't know of any company that goes on Proactive after publishing their interims. Have a great weekend all genuine holders.

[bernymadoff] 14/9/2018 09:11

The company would not have said in front of analysts that Flu-V is P3 ready and they were ready to talk to major pharmas if there was a chance that the NiH results would in any way impact the Netherlands trial data. Their credibility would be shot and they would set back any chances they have of a deal with the big boys.

[discojames] 14/9/2018 08:45

The timeline is not important, if you can prove something to a %age certainty with a trial then there is still scope for the trial results to be incorrect. It has happened before. More data = less likelyhood of false results. It is naive to think NIH results arent important and don't have a bearing on anything.

[bernymadoff] 13/9/2018 20:37

Because the NiH trial results were superseded by the Netherlands trial and won't gainsay any of the latter's results. Simple as that mate. Also I find it intriguing as to why the company has scheduled a presentation for analysts on the 20th when the interims are released. It hasn't done this before with any results which leads me to suspect it has something important to say. Why hold a presentation unless you've got something interesting to present?

[discojames] 13/9/2018 15:03

I am aware that they said they plan to take this forward regardless of NIH results, but what I am saying is why would a 3rd party put pen to paper on a deal prior to having access to the authentication they would bring?

[bernymadoff] 13/9/2018 12:10

Disco, the company has made it clear that Flu-V is P3 ready regardless of the outcome of those additional tests, the bulk of which were already reported last March. What remains is a small part of the tests and they have no bearing on the successful P2 trial reported on June 18. I suggest you listen to the company presentation of 18 June to hear for yourself. It couldn't have been made any clearer. My personal view is that we won't now be seeing these additional results before the interims are announced but I am sure we will get an update about their ETA. I also expect an update about their plans and progress for commercialisation of Flu-V.

[discojames] 12/9/2018 17:31

I think 'deals' with the big guys will become apparent after NIH results, they have no reason to put pen to paper when they are due free 3rd party confirmation first.

[bernymadoff] 12/9/2018 14:04

Mister MD, all I know is that it will happen and that deals like this take a few months to hammer out. That's not to say however that the share price will continue to drift over this period. The company will be releasing updates on the progress of commercialisation starting I believe with the interims next week. It's been a full 3 months since the last Flu-V update.

[mister md] 12/9/2018 13:56

I think you'll find plenty of companies with mostly positive reviews online and not many with exceedingly negative ones - the content of the reviews is often also very revealing and can give a good indication of company prospects
Why would I de-ramp? Happy to see it go to 300p so small p.i.s win for a change but somehow doubt it.
When are you expecting this 'deal with the big boys' to happen then ?