Hvivo Share Discussion Threads

[chica1] 14/11/2024 13:41

Ahh hey Bossy earlier you were saying ...
"Chica , I agree with you it is a great company and lots of potential"
so your speaking out of both sides of you mouth.Byebye

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 13:30

My point being there is no comparison between those CRO"s and HVO simply because HVO is the only one that specialises in human challenge studies.. which is a relatively new growing market, but nobody can predict the actual size of it or if and when it might stall .
With the greatest of respect, your comparison is more hopeful than meaningful..DYOR on that point too everyone .

[chica1] 14/11/2024 12:37

Here are the facts without being company specific..So 2024 revenue of £62×2.88(the lowest rate)=£177.5million
Hvivo's current valuation is £187 million-37 million in cash=£157 million..
So we're £30 million undervalued based on the current lowest buyout model.
So that 4+p a share undervaluation.

If we used the higher 4.77× valuation model we're talking 295-37=258.
It would mean Hvivo is £100 million undervalued so that's 15p a share.

Based off 680 million outstanding shares.

Valuation multiples in the CRO market

According to Pitchbook data, business sale median valuations of publicly traded contract research organizations range from 12-20 times the EBITDA in earnings and 2.88 – 4.77 times the revenue multiples.

At CFIE, we have recently seen multiples for European CROs ranging from 4 to 10 times the EBITDA or more, if the target is a high-quality CRO. Due to the scarcity of larger independent CROs, multiples have sometimes increased to around 15. Revenue size, a competitive environment, growth rates, margins, management team strength, and buyer motivations all influence valuations within this range.

hxxps://www.corporatefinanceineurope.eu/company-valuation-contract-research-organization/

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 12:02

Chica , sorry to be anal but you say HVO is only valued at 2.3 times revenues but its competitors are valued at 3.5 times .
Would you like to name any one of the competitors to which you refer .. have I missed something ??

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 10:53

KPE , yes you are right I am speculating . That's what I do and I am very very good at it . Yes I make mistakes of course .. But I've made a fortune off this share and know it well .
We will find out in Jan with trading update .
I rate the chances of any material contract being announced before then as just about Zero .
Let's see .. please feel free to mock me if anything material is announced .

[pierre oreilly] 14/11/2024 10:49

Time's money.

And in pharma, Time is really big money.

Anything which helps to bring a drug to market quicker in advance of competing drugs (or to have it dumped early for that matter) is big bucks.

And that is basically hvo's job to help big pharma do that. Even paying to rent and fit out a new facility just to jump the queue by a 6-12 months is worth it, which illustrates how much time is worth. Challenge studies save time and lower risk, and little old hvo is the world's leading commercial challenge study provider.

And I won't be saying something different tomorrow!

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 10:42

Chica , I agree with you it is a great company and lots of potential .
However , in my opinion , in the short term what matters is hitting 2025 numbers . That is looking more and more unlikely by the day .
That's the only thing we disagree on !

[yump] 14/11/2024 10:38

Pot kettle irony

[pogue] 14/11/2024 10:36

KPE
the deal for the free premises move was so that the payer could jump the queue as they were fully booked at the old place. Same as last time they moved they had too much work for the number of clients.
Depressing isnt it the company's biggest problem is it has too much work lol.

[pierre oreilly] 14/11/2024 10:16

Kpe, thanks for some sensible posts.

A bit of a waste of time though. This must be the worst board for pumpers and slaggers. One day, several posters are pumpimg like hell, then when they have a 20 quid profit, the sell and start slagging like hell, and that has been rinsed and repeated for years now.

A few years ago, posts could affect the price, but these days, a few traders don't affect it at all. It's institutions and those with deep pockets who affect the price. And my view is there'll be more of those buying rather than selling over the next year and after.

As you state, the fundamentals and prospects are amazing for an aim company. It's up to any pis reading this board for info just to ignore everything on here and google around and read company reports and make their own assessment of their prospects.

[chica1] 14/11/2024 10:07

Nope not necessarily,Boss
As KPE says Hvivo has a new facility.Previously Hvivo were confined to doing Challenge Studies.
With the new facilities everything will be more efficient.
Hvivo can do Field Trials.
A new CL-3 laboratory, allowing hVIVO to work with hazard group 3 pathogens.
Trading at 2.3× revenues but yet Hvivo's competitors are trading at 3.5 times.

There's alot of good stuff going on,no doubt.

[kpe] 14/11/2024 10:05

All you're doing is speculating. Yes it is disheartening and somewhere along the line companies that helped pay for the new premises will require some for of payback. Whether it's discount, first in line or some other form of gesture. No such thing as a free lunch.....The answer is nobody knows but given Mos steady hand so far you just have to have a little faith.

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 09:46

And as for possibly buying just because octopus has .. That is the blind leading the blind.. They are new to the stock and do not know the history. Everything has changed this year .DYOR

[bossyboss] 14/11/2024 09:43

Long term holders have sold because the pattern of contract wins has changed materially in last 12 months .
The company needs to continually sign more and more contracts to hit targets but new contracts have literally dried up .Its clear as day .
I'm not sure what news you guys read because despite promises we have not signed a major contract this year .DYOR if you don't believe me .

[kpe] 13/11/2024 20:55

Not really sure why long term holders would have sold up. Maybe day traders. The share isn't volatile enough for them under MOs watch. You're forgetting this isn't a share down 90% on its knees covered in debts. This is a share up 500% with divi and poolbeg shares, no debt and cash on the hip. How many companies in Aim can equal that. Not forgetting moving premises and having its customers pay the majority of the purchase. Slow and steady what's required. The only forward expectation from Mo so far it to hit revenues of 100mil in 2028. Happy to hold and for Mo to receive his options. Job well done so far.

[kpe] 13/11/2024 20:35

Don't forget dividends and poolbeg shares.

[chica1] 13/11/2024 20:10

Hey I'll give Pierre a pass on that,Sam

Semantics old boy!

[sambuca] 13/11/2024 19:33

Pierre Oreilly12 Nov '24 - 11:19 - 8428 of 8461
0 4 0
Yump's been around since the 5p days, offering his reverse logic to protect those less informed than him from making 6x their investment.

You want to learn to count 6x their investment from 5p would mean a share price of
35 p not 30p as it almost was when you posted.

Sam

[chica1] 13/11/2024 19:04

Hey over 5 million was bought north of 29.5p yesterday late reported.
So obviously someone is still accumulating. Hey someone is also taking profits.
3 months ago I would have said Hvivo's fair value is 36p, now with the lack of news maybe current trading range is fair value.
Still even if revenues are flat for next year (taking cash out) its still generating cash and is only trading at 2.3× revenue.
So who knows that's why I sold 1/2 my holdings 2 weeks ago until Mo provides more color on 2025 revenues.

[malcolmz1] 13/11/2024 18:30

4.3m shares dumped in 3 trades this afternoon. Wow! Big seller here.

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2024 16:49

The chairman dumping his entire holding (47m holding) at 28p/29p has set the ceiling.
He obviously thought they weren't worth more than that.
I believe the chairman knows more about the company than any PI/II.

Huge red flag.


The CEO has huge > 7m options so will continue talking the company up.
Only 3 more months until his huge options start to exercise.

It's easy to tell investors 'look our H1 revenues grew yoy 30%' thus implying fy revenues will be increasing in a similar way. Some will buy in, without realising that the chairman has dumped his entire 47m holding.



The facts from company accounts show fy yoy revenue growth slowed significantly.

No 2025 revenue forecasts.
No £40m contracts.


1gw and his mates have a long history of over playing the potential, pumping using the best metric (currently Octopus holding) and underplaying the risks. Once shares crash, they start quoting the red flags.
Check out Byot, Rthm, Trmr, Nano, Inse etc... all crashed.

1gw, are Inaminute/Owenski your mates?
;-)
You make a dodgy 2nd hand car salesman sound honest.
How many multiple ids do you have and why?

[bossyboss] 13/11/2024 16:17

Malcolm . . Agreed , and the lack of contract news becomes more deafening by the day . Most of the long term holders should be sold out by now . . Just the savants that are left .
DYOR

[malcolmz1] 13/11/2024 15:49

The range will break to the downside if Octopus don't step in at 26p. Uncomfortable to admit for the sheep.

[1gw] 13/11/2024 15:07

The CEO is sticking his head above the parapet on Tuesday at Jefferies isn't he? Doesn't look like they're webcasting the presentation though.