Cathal must be so glad he sold out 50% higher. Someone at Octopus has some explaining to do. Oh, what a game this is. |
Anyone can buy businesses to increase revenue. To be fair thats what they said they were aiming at, they didn’t specify how, or whether they would overpay for a loss maker.
If that floats your boat and you count it as growth, fine. Perhaps its consolidating the sector. That should be worth a grand strategic update.
Just hope that decreasing profits doesn’t matter. |
And Cavendish at 35p so a 79% uplift from current share price |
Two brokers have repeated their 'buy' recommendations for shares in hVIVO PLC (AIM:HVO) in the wake of an announcement on a key acquisition and an update on trading.Peel Hunt has a target price of 34p, while Panmure Liberum's valuation is 24p (current price 19.08p).Earlier, the company said it had taken a big step towards its goal of reaching £100 million in revenue by 2028 with the acquisition of two clinical research units in Germany for £8.4 million (10 million) from Clinical Research Services Management (CRS). |
My wife had whooping cough last year and it sounded (and felt apparently) as if she was about to keel over; there’s a long period of coughing afterwards. She had some antibiotics that made her a bit high - spontaneously booked a weekend in Berlin and a PJ Harvey concert there we could go to.
Nasty illness and goodness knows what its like if you have a child with it. |
hxxps://www.regulations.gov/comment/FDA-2024-N-3698-0002
“330 subjects will be challenged
during the study, including approximately 10% of subjects aged 50 to 64 years in each cohort.
After each challenge, subjects will remain in the unit for up to 19 days/18 nights”
Much higher number of volunteers and a longer quarantine period. |
Pierre
checked my notes, I think I mixed up beds with volunteers. So number of beds needed maybe 20. We have 50 beds currently at Canary Wharf, with the option to add more there, so not seeing any issue with fitting them in. I am 100% certain though we will not be using 100s of volunteers, as I said for Phase 3 study the numbers are high as proving volunteers are exposed to the virus is not so easy so larger numbers are needed. |
The fy2025 revenue guidance is £73m, £10m higher than fy2024.
This includes revenue from the 2 units bought.
They said they had visibility showing record revenues for 2025. Those figures show that was not the case.
Without today's acquisition, revenues would have fallen, as predicted. |
Imo there isn’t much difference from when CF was in charge.
Its always been focussed on revenue and it still is, as if that is actually what running a business is about. Who wants consistent profits ? Its not as if this is another Amazon with the prospect of owning the world by rapid massive expansion.
Stage 3 of AIM rubbish I believe: buy another business’ revenue.
Next one is a change of name to reflect the significant future opportunities. (There aren’t any more stages after that).
Never mind Perhaps conversion of the loi to contract will surprise! Assuming a value is forthcoming. |
Ask the question tonight Pierre. |
So Pierre, are investors supposed to “look further than the end of their noses” in the same way as at 40p?
You’ve got some amazing level of arrogance to still be posting. |
Ok P, we'll have to agree to disagree on the numbers in this hct being 20 or 30ish. |
Pierre
larger trials in the 1000s are needed where the virus is not as prevalent or as infectious. The number of volunteers is directly related to the chances of them catching the virus. Make it 100% certain and you reduce the numbers dramaticaly. |
Its a profit warning in the acquisition RNS
2024 EBITDA margin of c.26% on 62.7m Revenue = £16,3m
2025 EBITDA margin mid-high teens (excluding one-off costs) 73m @ 17% = £12.3m |
People judging 2025/Mo in January! £44m in the bank, expanding territories and offerings, £25m in contracts still under discussion plus pretty much nailed on Illiad revenue. Yes, he's really got a lot to answer to.Myopic clowns. |
 9270 - Disagree with that P.
This is the trial which has to satisfy the authorities that the drug both works and is safe. HVO are doing the efficacy bit, someone else the safety bit (incidentally by a normal phase 3 criteria, so hundreds/thousands involved out in the field).
You simply cant' deduce how effective a drug is by looking at 20/30 people imv. Not everyone reacts the same, some react quicker than others and i expect some don't react at all. It's not a yes/no, it's more like 5% reach a certain level withing 3 days, 18% within 4 days, 25% within 5 days, 10% withing 6 days etc etc, probably a Normal distribution. You can't get such dats from 10/20 volunteers, all of whom are infected and all have to be isolated parobably for a few days before until a few days after. If the drug is shown to work well, you can bet your bottom dollar that the drug company will want as many positive results as possible to convince the authorities, therefore why i said positive results for the drug would mean repeat studies (there's no rush for the cht trials because it's being run in parallel with the more traditional several month or year phase 3 trial for the safety aspects.
I realise htc infect 100% of volunteers therefore get data from 100% of them, whereas traditional phase 3 have say 1% infection therefore needs 100 times as many for the same data.
Some phase 3 trials have in the past involved 11000 volunteers - having them partly done in a hct could or would or is lowering that number (hence why, if all goes well with this one, hct could well be a normal part of phase 3). |
Should add Mo did say the Whooping cough trial is the biggest ever hence I double it based on it being phase 3 so more postivie infections will be required. |
What are the numbers? I was sure it was upto 10 volunteers depending on what is required. |
Pogue, you've definitely got your numbers wrong for participants in an HCT trial. |
I suggest people listen to the Q&A below which clarifies the numbers. £40 million was expected to be signed more this year but delays across the industry have affected them and only £15 million been signed so that £25 million will come on next year's books, there is also a £67 million weighted pipeline of orders plus more acquisitions to come when a suitable one is found. £100 million turnover by 2028 doesn’t look at all onerous. The outlook is very rosey here sadly this is not what AIM traders like to hear they want action now not tomorrow. |
What a surprise!
RNS only mentions revenue and ebitda margin - no use whatsoever and close to deception.
Will end up paying £12.5 million (with the investment) for 19.9mln Euro revenue an a loss maker.
Wait for some nice clouding of accounts and change of mantra to EV or something equally vague.
That big drop must have been insiders 100%, but you didn’t need the drop to see that taking a big chunk out at 30p was a good idea.
Was thinking of putting it back in if some contract were signed, but not after this. |
Pierre
there is no shortage of beds. A phase 3 study vaccinates 100s of volunteers because there is no guarantee they will be exposed to the virus that they are vaccinated for, HVO doing it in controlled conditions eliminates the problems so that they dont need to use 100s of volunteers. I would estimate double what they use for a Phase 2 trial which is around 10 so 20 people. The number of people in the trail dictates the cost of the trial as well as that is the main cost of the trail including finding volunteers, vaccinating them, putting them in very expensive isolation rooms, monitoring them 24/7, testing them daily etc. This is on top of the £5 million or so for making the model. |
Looking forward to this a little later...#HVO presentation at 5pm with @InvestorMeetCohttps://t.co/DSqwfmB12Z |
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