Ask the question tonight Pierre. |
So Pierre, are investors supposed to “look further than the end of their noses” in the same way as at 40p?
You’ve got some amazing level of arrogance to still be posting. |
Ok P, we'll have to agree to disagree on the numbers in this hct being 20 or 30ish. |
Pierre
larger trials in the 1000s are needed where the virus is not as prevalent or as infectious. The number of volunteers is directly related to the chances of them catching the virus. Make it 100% certain and you reduce the numbers dramaticaly. |
Its a profit warning in the acquisition RNS
2024 EBITDA margin of c.26% on 62.7m Revenue = £16,3m
2025 EBITDA margin mid-high teens (excluding one-off costs) 73m @ 17% = £12.3m |
People judging 2025/Mo in January! £44m in the bank, expanding territories and offerings, £25m in contracts still under discussion plus pretty much nailed on Illiad revenue. Yes, he's really got a lot to answer to.Myopic clowns. |
 9270 - Disagree with that P.
This is the trial which has to satisfy the authorities that the drug both works and is safe. HVO are doing the efficacy bit, someone else the safety bit (incidentally by a normal phase 3 criteria, so hundreds/thousands involved out in the field).
You simply cant' deduce how effective a drug is by looking at 20/30 people imv. Not everyone reacts the same, some react quicker than others and i expect some don't react at all. It's not a yes/no, it's more like 5% reach a certain level withing 3 days, 18% within 4 days, 25% within 5 days, 10% withing 6 days etc etc, probably a Normal distribution. You can't get such dats from 10/20 volunteers, all of whom are infected and all have to be isolated parobably for a few days before until a few days after. If the drug is shown to work well, you can bet your bottom dollar that the drug company will want as many positive results as possible to convince the authorities, therefore why i said positive results for the drug would mean repeat studies (there's no rush for the cht trials because it's being run in parallel with the more traditional several month or year phase 3 trial for the safety aspects.
I realise htc infect 100% of volunteers therefore get data from 100% of them, whereas traditional phase 3 have say 1% infection therefore needs 100 times as many for the same data.
Some phase 3 trials have in the past involved 11000 volunteers - having them partly done in a hct could or would or is lowering that number (hence why, if all goes well with this one, hct could well be a normal part of phase 3). |
Should add Mo did say the Whooping cough trial is the biggest ever hence I double it based on it being phase 3 so more postivie infections will be required. |
What are the numbers? I was sure it was upto 10 volunteers depending on what is required. |
Pogue, you've definitely got your numbers wrong for participants in an HCT trial. |
I suggest people listen to the Q&A below which clarifies the numbers. £40 million was expected to be signed more this year but delays across the industry have affected them and only £15 million been signed so that £25 million will come on next year's books, there is also a £67 million weighted pipeline of orders plus more acquisitions to come when a suitable one is found. £100 million turnover by 2028 doesn’t look at all onerous. The outlook is very rosey here sadly this is not what AIM traders like to hear they want action now not tomorrow. |
What a surprise!
RNS only mentions revenue and ebitda margin - no use whatsoever and close to deception.
Will end up paying £12.5 million (with the investment) for 19.9mln Euro revenue an a loss maker.
Wait for some nice clouding of accounts and change of mantra to EV or something equally vague.
That big drop must have been insiders 100%, but you didn’t need the drop to see that taking a big chunk out at 30p was a good idea.
Was thinking of putting it back in if some contract were signed, but not after this. |
Pierre
there is no shortage of beds. A phase 3 study vaccinates 100s of volunteers because there is no guarantee they will be exposed to the virus that they are vaccinated for, HVO doing it in controlled conditions eliminates the problems so that they dont need to use 100s of volunteers. I would estimate double what they use for a Phase 2 trial which is around 10 so 20 people. The number of people in the trail dictates the cost of the trial as well as that is the main cost of the trail including finding volunteers, vaccinating them, putting them in very expensive isolation rooms, monitoring them 24/7, testing them daily etc. This is on top of the £5 million or so for making the model. |
Looking forward to this a little later...#HVO presentation at 5pm with @InvestorMeetCohttps://t.co/DSqwfmB12Z |
Not going there, trout.
Naughty |
Pretty obvious to me for the acquisitions and their timing. More beds to fill for the phase 3 hct, full from the off.
As I've hinted, even excluding all other contracts, hvo has a shortage of beds (even after the bed expansion in the move to canary wharf)
Look further than the end of your nose is my advice (just as octopus has). |
LFDKMP,
You mentioned 'Chica' and 'a deramping ex holder' in the same post ;O) |
RFK Jnr..
hxxps://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0128/1493496-caroline-kennedy-robert-kennedy/ |
Yes chica
If you have disgruntled sizeable institutional investors, two words spring to mind: overhang and precipice.
That's it from me- will keep a watching brief, but don't want to be seen as a deramping ex holder. |
Yes Trout but Mo has big questions to answer!
What has he told all those institutions that propped up Hvivo's share for most of 2024?(while Friel was unloading) |
So, looks like hvo have used some of their cash to prop up flagging short term revenues, but at the expense of underlying profitability.
Fair to say that the recent RNSs confirm that the underlying business model has been struggling and that Mo is now reshaping the company. For the better? I'm not sure.
Having significantly reduced my position in recent months. I'm out.
(Note to self- avoid anything to do with CF in the future) |
Just re-read the 2 RNSs and noticed this in the second one quoting Mo, I think that is the only admittance that the short term outlook has disappointed.
"Overall, the mid- and long-term outlook for the Group is excellent. |
But the LoI is still in active discussions - trying to convert it to a contract. |
No, I am not sure it is, but it is not clear (they specifically say it isn't part of their weighted order book) that just gives us one more question for the Investor Meet. |
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