What a surprise!
RNS only mentions revenue and ebitda margin - no use whatsoever and close to deception.
Will end up paying £12.5 million (with the investment) for 19.9mln Euro revenue an a loss maker.
Wait for some nice clouding of accounts and change of mantra to EV or something equally vague.
That big drop must have been insiders 100%, but you didn’t need the drop to see that taking a big chunk out at 30p was a good idea.
Was thinking of putting it back in if some contract were signed, but not after this. |
Pierre
there is no shortage of beds. A phase 3 study vaccinates 100s of volunteers because there is no guarantee they will be exposed to the virus that they are vaccinated for, HVO doing it in controlled conditions eliminates the problems so that they dont need to use 100s of volunteers. I would estimate double what they use for a Phase 2 trial which is around 10 so 20 people. The number of people in the trail dictates the cost of the trial as well as that is the main cost of the trail including finding volunteers, vaccinating them, putting them in very expensive isolation rooms, monitoring them 24/7, testing them daily etc. This is on top of the £5 million or so for making the model. |
Looking forward to this a little later...#HVO presentation at 5pm with @InvestorMeetCohttps://t.co/DSqwfmB12Z |
Not going there, trout.
Naughty |
Pretty obvious to me for the acquisitions and their timing. More beds to fill for the phase 3 hct, full from the off.
As I've hinted, even excluding all other contracts, hvo has a shortage of beds (even after the bed expansion in the move to canary wharf)
Look further than the end of your nose is my advice (just as octopus has). |
LFDKMP,
You mentioned 'Chica' and 'a deramping ex holder' in the same post ;O) |
RFK Jnr..
hxxps://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0128/1493496-caroline-kennedy-robert-kennedy/ |
Yes chica
If you have disgruntled sizeable institutional investors, two words spring to mind: overhang and precipice.
That's it from me- will keep a watching brief, but don't want to be seen as a deramping ex holder. |
Yes Trout but Mo has big questions to answer!
What has he told all those institutions that propped up Hvivo's share for most of 2024?(while Friel was unloading) |
So, looks like hvo have used some of their cash to prop up flagging short term revenues, but at the expense of underlying profitability.
Fair to say that the recent RNSs confirm that the underlying business model has been struggling and that Mo is now reshaping the company. For the better? I'm not sure.
Having significantly reduced my position in recent months. I'm out.
(Note to self- avoid anything to do with CF in the future) |
Just re-read the 2 RNSs and noticed this in the second one quoting Mo, I think that is the only admittance that the short term outlook has disappointed.
"Overall, the mid- and long-term outlook for the Group is excellent. |
But the LoI is still in active discussions - trying to convert it to a contract. |
No, I am not sure it is, but it is not clear (they specifically say it isn't part of their weighted order book) that just gives us one more question for the Investor Meet. |
1gw..No actually Mo said the £25 million are still in active discussions and that more potential contracts have been added. |
Trout - I presume the LoI accounts for a good slug of the £25m, don't you? |
I suspect he isn't flavour of the month. Not the best decision to lump in here at 28p. |
Inaminute the 'clever people' sold and moved on!
The warnings were there.. |
 HVO have a physical footprint in Europe...Venn.
Negatives -
Drop in 2025 Revenue over 2024.
Much reduced Ebitda in 2025 due to acquisitions.
Mo's halo has slipped somewhat, as up to now he has always delivered.
£25m of near time work still not signed up after all this time.
Hearing of light timetable of trials at Canary Wharf for H1 this year.
Positives -
Acquisition should enhance revs and earnings in future years.
Also allows for cross selling different segments of the business to clients.
2024 has been a super year, so hard to follow anyway.
The phase 3 trial is not in the weighted pipeline figure and when signed would boost H2 2025 and 2026 figures.
Mo has been dealt a poor hand with many clients holding back on HCT studies, this needs to be mitigated and the P3 trail could be the start of this and the acquisition will help in future years after full integration. So he has worked on fixing the poor hand.
HVO still has a decent cash pile and so can look to build the business and investors do not need to fret about continual fundraises (which on AIM is rare). |
Do we know if the Iliad contract is included in 2025E? Acquisition RNS specifically says its not included in the contracted order book
Pretty muted response so far for a 20% cut to EBITDA |
Some pretty poor attempts to downplay this news as expected. |
The doors still haven't been blown off! Decent acquisition but the market doesn't like false promises regarding numbers. Bottom drawer job this one. They've released all their news so I anticipate a quiet few months.Looks like Cathal was right to sell up when he did..... |
No its not Adorling. Once you take out £20m for the new business acquired, the existing business revenues drop to just £53k, significantly below 2024, which is £63k. |
Adorling,You can't just put blinkers on and say la la la.
Friel knew and sold!
How were Octopus so stubid?
Where's Mo's credibility now? |
Growth is growth and £73 million 2025 outlook is a good figure and we have now seen HVO gaining a physical footprint in Europe with the acquisitions. Challenge studies will always be lumpy but when won are becoming more sizeable with added services. Hopefully all the HVO naysayers have sold there shares (despite always posting negative comments on here as they cannot let their baggage go) but will hopefully move on to to more 100-baggers which of course they always seem to pick. |
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