DONT FEED THE TROLLS IT ONLY ENCOURAGES THEM! |
Troll or a bad case of Ostrich syndrome
(a cognitive bias that describes how people often avoid negative information, including feedback that could help them monitor their goal progress. Instead of dealing with the situation, they foolishly bury their heads in the sand, like ostriches.) |
That's the first post to talk about a "weighted pipeline" pogue. We've been talking about the weighted contracted orderbook and whether it is in fact all contracted or might contain some of the uncontracted pipeline (weighted or otherwise). |
1gw
I have messaged the company to confirm my interpretation based on Mo's definition of the weighted pipeline will post the clarification when I receive it.
Being Xmas I wont expect it for a while |
G , I'm not sure I see this point differently .. I hear your interpretation and why. However I interpret a lot of the ideas on this topic differently .
I'm not sure anyone still follows what I'm actually saying but it's defo not how Pogue interprets it .
But regarding this last point , I'm not at all sure .. I might bet you a tenner that the 40 m pipeline is already included in the 70 but no more than a tenner ! |
Here's the statement from the interims which talks about both the contracted orderbook and the pipeline of live opportunities and how the pipeline might feed into the orderbook:
"The Company's weighted contracted orderbook stood at £71 million as at 30 June 2024 (H1 2023: £78 million), post-delivery of a record £35.6 million in revenues in H1 2024, with FY 2024 revenue guidance fully contracted and good visibility into 2025. hVIVO has a broad pipeline of live opportunities, including a number in advanced stages, making the Group well-positioned to grow its weighted orderbook going forward. " |
That is my interpretation. But clearly you and Pogue see it differently, so I'd like to understand the evidence on which you base the different interpretation and if we can't agree then perhaps it does need clarification from the company because there must be other investors who are confused as well. |
G , So the 70 m order book at half year did not include that 40 m of new pipeline .. is that what you are saying ? |
There was the £40m "short to medium term potential" in the interims:
"Pipeline of live opportunities continues to expand including interest in new challenge models and new revenue streams with short to medium term potential opportunities of c. £40 million" |
GW ..has a figure been given for the " pipeline ? |
No, I'm suggesting they have a weighted contracted orderbook plus a pipeline. Here's the AR reference again to the same £80m with the explicit statement about what's in the orderbook (contracted & deposit paid).
"Looking ahead, our weighted orderbook grew to £80 million as at 31 December 2023
(31 December 2022: £76 million)having delivered £56.0 million of revenues in 2023. This substantial orderbook ensured that we entered the year in a very strong position with 90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted. It is important to emphasise that our orderbook is comprised of clients who have signed a contractual agreement and paid the up‐front non‐refundable fee." |
GW ..or are you saying they have a weighted contracted order book plus a weighted non contracted order book ? |
Not in my interpretation bossyboss. The £80m in slide 18 is all contracted isn't it? How would you justify any other interpretation from the slide? |
GW , so that would suggest the weighted order book is made up of contracts signed , discounted for cancellations , plus contracts not signed but expected to be ?
I hope I follow you , please tell me if I'm wrong .. |
Bossyboss - Have a look at slide 18 of the 2023 full year results presentation (April 2024).
The title is "Record Contracted Orderbook"
On the left you have "Net Contracted Orderbook" showing the same £80m at end-2023 as in the extract in my earlier posts; on the right you have "Gross Contracted Orderbook."
So "net" and "gross" rather than "weighted" and "unweighted" but no way the words suggest it could include anything that wasn't contracted.
See also slide 9 (Case Study) where they talk about the upfront booking fee of 10-20% mitigating against the risk of cancellation or client delay.
So I think it's fairly clear that they do consider these risks and weight for them in the weighted (or net) contracted orderbook. |
GW ..you are wasting your time asking Professor Pogue to explain himself .. he would claim that 2 plus 2 equals 3 .. because he's a troll .. |
GW .. I follow your understanding .. I just don't think the company does such things .. I think it would help if we could get a straight answer from head office.. |
pogue - so how do you explain this reference in the interims?
"The Company's weighted contracted orderbook stood at £71 million as at 30 June 2024"
They are clearly talking about a contracted orderbook aren't they? |
Bossyboss - my understanding is that it is the risk of cancellation that they are weighting for. So if they have a contract for a £10m study and the client has paid a £2m deposit then the £2m is guaranteed but the remaining £8m is not (e.g. study doesn't get regulatory approval, client wants to delay, client no longer wants to do the study). So the £2m is banked and the £8m is risked and put into the weighted contracted orderbook according to how likely HVO judge the client is to proceed with the study in the slot that has been reserved for them. |
1gw
Mo clearly stated when the weighted orderbook started it was for projected orders weighted by chance of getting them. It was for measuring the effectiveness of the salesforce. |
It's like saying we have £60 million of work contracted for this year, but we probably won't do it.., it's all getting rather silly |
Ex, well that's a first for me . I have never heard of that before . It sounds more like speculation to me. |
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