Bossyboss - Have a look at slide 18 of the 2023 full year results presentation (April 2024).
The title is "Record Contracted Orderbook"
On the left you have "Net Contracted Orderbook" showing the same £80m at end-2023 as in the extract in my earlier posts; on the right you have "Gross Contracted Orderbook."
So "net" and "gross" rather than "weighted" and "unweighted" but no way the words suggest it could include anything that wasn't contracted.
See also slide 9 (Case Study) where they talk about the upfront booking fee of 10-20% mitigating against the risk of cancellation or client delay.
So I think it's fairly clear that they do consider these risks and weight for them in the weighted (or net) contracted orderbook. |
GW ..you are wasting your time asking Professor Pogue to explain himself .. he would claim that 2 plus 2 equals 3 .. because he's a troll .. |
GW .. I follow your understanding .. I just don't think the company does such things .. I think it would help if we could get a straight answer from head office.. |
pogue - so how do you explain this reference in the interims?
"The Company's weighted contracted orderbook stood at £71 million as at 30 June 2024"
They are clearly talking about a contracted orderbook aren't they? |
Bossyboss - my understanding is that it is the risk of cancellation that they are weighting for. So if they have a contract for a £10m study and the client has paid a £2m deposit then the £2m is guaranteed but the remaining £8m is not (e.g. study doesn't get regulatory approval, client wants to delay, client no longer wants to do the study). So the £2m is banked and the £8m is risked and put into the weighted contracted orderbook according to how likely HVO judge the client is to proceed with the study in the slot that has been reserved for them. |
1gw
Mo clearly stated when the weighted orderbook started it was for projected orders weighted by chance of getting them. It was for measuring the effectiveness of the salesforce. |
It's like saying we have £60 million of work contracted for this year, but we probably won't do it.., it's all getting rather silly |
Ex, well that's a first for me . I have never heard of that before . It sounds more like speculation to me. |
.."Why would you apply weighting to a contractual position ?.."
Because although you might have penalty/compensation rights, you might take a longer term relationship view ('OK, so long as I get the next X or Y business'), for instance.
I've seen that happen in business - from both sides. |
Pogue,
"'HVO reaffirms its full-year revenue guidance of £62m and expects EBITDA margins to be at the upper end of market expectations. The company is targeting revenue of £100m by 2028"
they said the same £62m revenue target for this year and £100m target for 2028 for almost a year.
Repeating the same thing doesn't change the facts and the red flags I'd been warning about for a year.
Unless you're trying to pull the wool over some gullible PIs eyes.
From Jan TU:
Weighted contracted orderbook of £80 million as at 31 December 2023 (31 December 2022: £76 million)
90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted and good visibility into 2025
Revenue guidance of £62 million for 2024
Move to new state-of-the-art facility in Canary Wharf on schedule to complete in H1 2024
Commencement of annual dividend payment in 2024
New medium-term target of growing Group revenue to £100m by 2028 |
G .. " a weighted contracted order book "
Are you sure ? Why would you apply weighting to a contractual position ?
Only if it is not contracted .. surely ? |
So in my interpretation we have:
Unweighted orderbook (Total revenue value of signed contracts with deposits paid);
Weighted orderbook (the above weighted by the risk of cancellation);
Pipeline (non-contracted opportunities in discussion).
HVO chooses to talk mainly about the weighted orderbook, although in recent releases has also brought in the idea of the pipeline as a means (I would argue) of trying to persuade the market that a decline in the weighted orderbook is not something to be overly concerned about. |
And this extract from the interims also supports this interpretation:
"The Company's weighted contracted orderbook stood at £71 million as at 30 June 2024 (H1 2023: £78 million), post-delivery of a record £35.6 million in revenues in H1 2024, with FY 2024 revenue guidance fully contracted and good visibility into 2025. hVIVO has a broad pipeline of live opportunities, including a number in advanced stages, making the Group well-positioned to grow its weighted orderbook going forward. "
i.e. the "broad pipeline of live opportunities, including a number in advanced stages" is not part of the weighted contracted orderbook, but as and when those live opportunities get contracted then they become part of it. |
To me it's the same orderbook being talked about all the way through that extract, ie "weighted orderbook", "this substantial orderbook"and "our orderbook" are all talking about the same thing. |
Beware of the Pogue !!
He's sitting on a thumping loss over last 4 months despite repeatedly being warned about what has now manifested in the share price
If you don't agree with his conspiratorial fantasies you are deemed to be a troll .
Why don't one of you ask the PR company if the weighted order book excludes signed contracts for future work ?
If they say yes you might ask what's happened to the 80m at the start of year ? History has shown it to be a huge error of weighting as they have converted nothing remotely close to that figure !!!
Do you still not get it ?? |
1gw
are you replying to me or a troll?
The orderbook is signed contracts the weighed orderbook is potential contracts weighted by chance of getting a signed contract. Thats what your quote says.
Mo spelt that out what a weighted orderbook was when he created this measure of future orders. |
Here's a longer extract from the Annual Report (page 19). It seems unambiguous to me in terms of what the weighted orderbook consists of, but clearly others see it differently.
"Looking ahead, our weighted orderbook grew to £80 million as at 31 December 2023
(31 December 2022: £76 million)having delivered £56.0 million of revenues in 2023. This substantial orderbook ensured that we entered the year in a very strong position with 90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted. It is important to emphasise that our orderbook is comprised of clients who have signed a contractual agreement and paid the up‐front non‐refundable fee." |
The 52 week price range is 18p - 31p. It is surprising that the share price is currently sitting right at the lower end. Opened the year at 24.75p now over 20 percent down in 2024. The share price is currently at the same level as October 2020. I do worry that less than impressive results will end up with HVO dropping lower.Just goes to show that HVO is a traders share not a long term hold of you want to make money. |
The market is giving us true price discovery so it's obvious what the market thinks.. and this pogue clown actually admits that the market knows a lot more than him !
So basically, it would be really stupid to listen to a word he has said.. I hope you haven't learned the hard way.. |
Keep following the BB Napster pogue !! Read his posts for the last 4 months .. chuckle .. |
When is RFK's confirmation hearing?
Hard orders will be thin on the ground until that's completed.
Based on 2024 contract rns's there's no way they can better 2024 revenue in 2025.
Hey even Mo said himself that Hvivo was finding it hard to close deals earlier this month,so basically that's a warning for 2025 with red lights on it. |
 from Burtond1's link
'HVO reaffirms its full-year revenue guidance of £62m and expects EBITDA margins to be at the upper end of market expectations. The company is targeting revenue of £100m by 2028, growth it expect to be underpinned by the increased capacity of its facilities, a strong cash position, and a long-term sustainable growth model....
The company’s pipeline of live opportunities continues to expand including interest in new challenge models and new revenue streams with short to medium term potential opportunities of around £40m. Earlier this month the company announced a £11.5m contract with an existing top-tier global pharmaceutical client to test its antiviral candidate using its RSV Human Challenge Study Model....'
All going to plan unless Mo is lying but he actually tends to under estimate and over achieve. Looking forward to a good New Year and hopefully the expected purchase of another company to boost turnover and profits by offering a larger range of services to clients. |
1gw
without unfiltering BossyBoss and understanding totally what the troll has to say I would like to say the weighted order book has no signed orders in it. A weighting is given to every enquiry about placing a contract. The further down the line they get to signing the higher the weighing that is what the weighted order book is. There are no signed contracts in it.
Edit
to explain it in simpler terms. If contracts that were expected are won the pipeline takes a big hit if a contract that was not expected to be won drops out then the pipeline goes down. At £71 million I suggest there is plenty of opportunites there and small rises and falls are immaterial unless of course you are a troll with nothing to troll about which I assume is what is happening on this board just now. |
GW , from memory the weighted order book was circa 80 m at last years end .
The contracted work was circa 60 m .
If , as you speculate , the 60 m of contracted work does not form part of the 80 m order book .. then the question begs , whats happened to the order book ?? As we have converted hardly any of it into contracts .Do you see my point ? |
10 Stocks to follow for 2025 https://x.com/tmsreach/status/1871447243376713747?s=46&t=z43m4_7LgUJ7F0f0suJ-OQ |
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