Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 07/4/2021 07:44

I think the big thing about Surufatinib in NET is that it is in the process of being approved for all NET indications except biliary tract(pancreas, stomach, bowel lung etc). Existing drugs including Sutent and Afinitor are only licensed for single or s small number of NET cancers. Therefore Surufatinib should in theory outsell all of the competition. Forecast annual peak sales outside china is $690m for all NET indications ex biliary tract. The latter indication will add another $344m.

[sportii] 06/4/2021 12:19

I agree with both of you.
Although I bought my initial shares 11 years ago, most of my present holdings bought at higher share price than that of today’s.
Hence, sharing the sense of disappointment.

Is the share price deliberately maintained at lower levels so as to allow a good number of Asian investors to join at a lower share price when the company gets listed at HK / + Shanghai. If so, its a good strategy.

As per many posts that have appeared here, there’s no definitive therapy available for treating Neuroendocrine tumours (? Both pancreatic/ extra pancreatic varieties. Please correct me if my assumption is wrong). Company is expecting approval for Surufatinib by the authorities both in USA and China. Any news of further approval and / or engaging with a much bigger pharma will be welcome news and certainly good for the share price Let us hope we will hear something good soon.

PS: no intention of any recommendation to buy or sell.

[nerdofsteel] 06/4/2021 08:44

I agree steeplejack and they need to be more dynamic when it comes to corporate strategy and partnering. Getting into development relationships with small and medium sized Chinese Co's isn't good enough. They need to look at what Beigene has done with Celgene and others and see how they are valued.

I originally invested here many years ago but then made an additional large strategic investment in the Company in 2015. When I did that I also spent a lot of time evaluating Beigene and decided Chi-Med had a deeper later stage pipeline so would deliver more shareholder much more quickly but that hasn't happened.

I have full respect for the CEO, who in my view has been hampered and held back by CKHH and the Chairman who is a CKHH appointee. We need dynamic new blood here to really propel the Company forward.

[steeplejack] 05/4/2021 19:27

I'm becoming increasingly sceptical if there's anything imminent thats going to trigger some damascene experience in the share price fortunes of HCM.There are some very old brooms managing this company,brooms that were employed by Hutchinson Whampoa many years ago.As capable as these old hands maybe,i reflect that fresh management might be more conscious that this is now an independent company,no longer a consolidated subsidiary.The relative underperformance of the NASDAQ over the last three years should be a real cause for concern for a company that's tapping investors from time to time.The investment message simply isn't getting across and that is costing HCM money re dilution.

[nerdofsteel] 03/4/2021 10:40

For the avoidance of doubt, I continue to Buy ;o-)

and I do that because of the pipeline, the furture revenue projections over the next 10 years and the fact the Company will begin to generate free cashflow from 2024.....

The market should be forward looking, but with HCM that is not the case at the moment.

[lauders] 03/4/2021 03:33

Also, being ever the contrarian, the lack of seeing you sign off with "I continue to buy" recently was a factor as well :)

LOL Bareknee. Surely unintentional, but you could be right that it is a "sign". HCM are definitely out of favour at present. No doubt patience will be rewarded if bought at these levels. If I had excess cash floating around looking for a home some would almost certainly find its way here. Alas I just have to hold what I have now for the time being. Being patient when the share prices of other companies around seem to reach new highs daily at present is tough though!

[its the oxman] 02/4/2021 12:38

Interesting to read trinity note thx. Hopefully hcm goes up whatever the reason. Also curious why brokers don't argue for rating similar to likes of Innovent if they are comparable.

[bareknee] 02/4/2021 11:50

Davey / Nerd

I remember you saying that being listed on NASDAQ would drive the share price performance because the Americans really understood and appreciated Biotech So, while an Asian listing would be no bad thing in the medium to long term, thinking a change in where the shares can be traded is a guarantee of a change in sentiment may well be flawed, especially if a new listing needed a discount to get it away.

That said, after quite some time when I've been a reducer, I recently added to my holding in the 390's because I think that the market is now over-compensating for having previously overvalued us, and is now undervaluing the pipeline. Also, being ever the contrarian, the lack of seeing you sign off with "I continue to buy" recently was a factor as well :)

Hopefully in 12 to 18 months that decision will be vindicated

BB

[nerdofsteel] 02/4/2021 10:02

In addition to the short note published on the 5th March Trinity Delta have now published a full research note posted on Tuesday 30th March:

[nerdofsteel] 26/3/2021 18:05

They need an Asia listing as soon as possible, whatever market conditions. I don't think there's ever perfect market conditions. When the last one was pulled at the last minute 2 years ago other companies went ahead and their listings were largely successful. We need to get on with it. NASDAQ and AIM will never ever give this great company a decent valuation. period.

It is a $10bn Company valued at $4bn.

Take a look at Innovent and you will see what I mean.

[steeplejack] 26/3/2021 13:09

This doesn't help.Fresh concerns about companies from China being kicked off American exchanges have helped push an index of U.S.-traded Chinese stocks into bear-market territory.The S&P/BNY Mellon China Select ADR Index tracks the American depositary receipts for 48 major U.S.-listed Chinese companies. The technology-heavy gauge includes e-commerce companies Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., and electric-car maker Nio Inc.The benchmark extended losses to fall 2.2% Thursday, leaving it nearly 25% below a record hit on Feb. 16. A bear market is usually defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak.

[fionascott1234] 25/3/2021 14:36

I am doing the same, hopefully NOT to the tune by Perry Como, "Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket "!

[its the oxman] 25/3/2021 14:29

Recycled a few profits from cmc into hcm so got a few more c. 390p. Got to be the right thing to do. Groan.

[nerdofsteel] 25/3/2021 13:04

It seems that early investors have made a lot of money and continue to take profits at the expense of later stage investors. I only assume and hope an Asian listing will give the valuation an uplift to a more reasonable level. Failing that, I can only assume (and hope yet again!) that when 2024 comes and the company finally generates free cashflow the Company will get a valuation more aligned with other Chinese Biotechs.

If you look at Beigene and Innovent you will see how poorly the market values HUTCHMED.

[steeplejack] 25/3/2021 10:47

Yes,totally agree with your summation.


The timing of its fund raisings have sometimes been downright detrimental.If you throw in an abandoned HK listing and hastily arranged alternative placings on Nasdaq,you could (despite heavyweight broker backing) conclude that Hutchmed is not overly sophisticated when it comes to utilising stockmarkets.However,i don’t think Hutchmed are naive just irritatingly laidback believing that their endeavours will ultimately bear fruit which will be recognised in their rating.No real need to placate the greedy desires of small time investors.However,if they’re going to attract interest from institutions and industry cohorts alike,they might wish to start being a bit more savvy.The most recent protagonists,Canada Pension Plan who invested at $30 maybe long term but ultimately they’ll wish to believe their November equity purchase was prescient.

[its the oxman] 25/3/2021 09:57

Last few years has felt like a case of buying as low as you can then selling some every time we break 500p. Hardly a disaster but yes very frustrating and disappointing. Could continue of course but I feel hcm is now much closer to substantial revenues and more drug approvals, meaning I hope , a game changing step up in its valuation. On the other hand u could be right.

[sportii] 25/3/2021 09:25

Not sure the company gives any importance to investors’ interests. Its glaringly true that the market valuation is very very low. Is there another pharma company of this magnitude with such low market valuation? Over the last 5/6 years, on 4-5 occasions, the share price climbed up on a steady pace, backed up by genuinely solid reasons(successful clinical trials, extending operational activities to the USA, enviable pipeline, triple hundred millions of investments by two major funds, drugs getting approved by authorities and subsequent marketing etc., etc.). However, on every occasion, share price failed to maintain the higher valuation longer than few weeks due to various (some times without any) reasons. For example, 6-8 weeks ago, AIM share price was > £5.30 and NYSE ADRs > $37. One fine day, following the announcement of reasonably satisfactory annual results, more than a million ADRs got traded (?sold) which caused severe drop in the share price Surprisingly, the very following day, a million ADRs got (?)bought, with no improvement in the sp! Presently, share price is languishing at £4 (and ADRs $27). The company keeps the news of Asian listing in the circulation as a hope for the investors. Is it a carrot hanging at a distance?
Personally, I feel appreciating Hutchmed for the great work of research and development of newer therapies for oncology and immunology which, undoubtedly, will be useful to millions of people. But, as an investor I remain seriously sceptical about poor show in improving market valuation.

(PS: no intention of recommending either to buy or sell. Do your own research)

[whatja] 25/3/2021 07:59

Disappointed the ADS ended down again.....you would have thought $170m funding would please the market.
They need the product approvals to come in on time

[nerdofsteel] 25/3/2021 07:17

I am not sure about being acquired but its current mcap is way below its theorectical valuation given its huge late stage pipeline and the fact it will become very profitable from 2024.

[whatja] 24/3/2021 17:44

It has a long term founding shareholder who has a history of trading assets....would not be surprised to see a merger with CKHH retaining a 20% stake in the combined entity.
I don’t think we can say it is being fattened for market.

[its the oxman] 24/3/2021 16:56

Just out of interest as never really given it much thought but does anyone think hcm is becoming an attractive bid target for a major player or does the fact that it's a China based company make it too difficult a proposition. Just pure speculation.

[nerdofsteel] 24/3/2021 13:35

Disposal of no-core / non-strategic asset OTC Business seems to make perfect sense and a price of 22x net profit appears good too.

The aggregate amount to be received by HUTCHMED of approximately $169 million in cash represents about 22 times HBYS' adjusted net profit attributable to HUTCHMED equity holders of $7.7 million in 2020[1]. Of the proceeds, approximately $127 million is related to its shareholding in HBYS with the approximately $42 million balance related to distributions of the previously announced land compensation and prior year undistributed profits.

[nerdofsteel] 22/3/2021 17:54

looking very likely Hutchmed want to go for a listing in H1 so I am hopeful for news very soon. With Q1 almost over I am also looking forward to significant Sulanda and Elunate sales updates at the AGM. Savo China approval imminent too.

[steeplejack] 22/3/2021 16:38

Zzzzzz zzzz yawn

[its the oxman] 22/3/2021 15:34

No bounce for us it seems.