Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 08/1/2021 11:12

Irritates the hell out of me,this pathetically wide nominal spread we have on AIM ,a proper reflective quote only emerging as the Nasdaq opens.AIM will pay 505p currently for stock while the nominal bid is 495p.By the time we get round to 2pm ,the bid is more than likely going to be up around 520p.It really irks me.

[nerdofsteel] 07/1/2021 07:12

Coincidentally OXMAN, my 2021 forecast is 585p, followed by increments ending at £26.18 by 2028 (rNPV model blended with EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E) - all based on most (not all) of the pipeline delivering together with Analayst forecasts of Revs and Earnings

[its the oxman] 06/1/2021 16:43

Closing spread 522-524p. A little narrower than this morning. Also some year end targets including mine of 585p may need revising given its only day 6! Be nice if we can continue to climb at this rate.

[dbadvn] 06/1/2021 13:20

Don’t know why hcm don’t move to main market, basically ignored on aim - even the investment magazines don’t bother anymore.

[steeplejack] 06/1/2021 12:15

Yes,very irritating the way they swing the stock around on a wide spread but it's a thin market,in a junior market and you can't expect much different.

[its the oxman] 06/1/2021 08:25

Bonkers early morning spread 491-524p

[nerdofsteel] 06/1/2021 06:37

Headwinds
1. HHHL/CKH secondary listing overhang - cleared
2. U.S. - China trade war - cleared
3. Hong Kong riots - cleared
4. Delay to HK IPO - will happen at some point
5. Worldwide markets volatility - cleared
6. Trump China ADR de-listing threat - cleared - accounting standards adhered to
7. Chinese hated by U.S. and its Investment Community - cleared - instis happy to invest
8. Corona Virus - clearing

[steeplejack] 05/1/2021 21:48

Plus..."The New York Stock Exchange re­versed its de­cision to delist Chi­na's three largest telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions com­pa­nies, af­ter con­sult­ing with reg­u­la­tory au­thor­i­ties about a re­cent U.S. in­vest-ment ban." WSJ 5 Jan

[steeplejack] 05/1/2021 20:51

Or perhaps,there's an active corporate broker exercise to get the shares up ahead of a resurrected HK listing in the next few months.

[malcontent] 05/1/2021 19:45

yeah it's been a nice and fast rise - smells to me like someone has got this on their "shares for 2021" list on the back of recent news

[steeplejack] 05/1/2021 19:03

The shares are around a two year high in the US,a price that translates to over 530p at current xrates.Something about darkest before the dawn comes to mind given the stock was flirting with going under 4 quid some two weeks ago

[dbadvn] 05/1/2021 15:52

Obviously (right or wrongly) sensitive to threat to delist Chinese cos which has receded.
Underlines the need for HK listing even more.

[its the oxman] 05/1/2021 15:37

Thx Sportii, also nice to be back above 5 pounds today.

[yidarmytom] 05/1/2021 15:18

at last we are getting some traction here, still not correctly valued by the market

[steeplejack] 04/1/2021 21:14

£5 equivalent close in NY

[sportii] 04/1/2021 18:38

Oxman, the good run is as expected. As Nofs has mentioned Surufatinib (Sulanda) got approval for the treatment of Extra (Non) Pancreatic Neuroendocrine tumors in China. The company has applied for similar approval in the USA. In addition, the same drug is expected to get approval for treatment of Neuroendocrine tumors arising in the pancreas (Pacreatic NET).
Astrazeneca and HCM are collaborating with each other about Savolitinib. All looking well and good. Prospects are much better.
On LSE Hcm board, there is a very good post by Jatw, posted 2/3 days ago. You will certainly appreciate the information provided in that post.

[its the oxman] 04/1/2021 18:26

Thx. Good news then and the start of a steady climb higher.

[nerdofsteel] 04/1/2021 17:28

Trinity Delta have published an updated research note:-

hxxps://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/china-approval-clears-sulanda-in-epnet/

Valuation upgrade to £6.45/share or $41.94/ADS

[nerdofsteel] 04/1/2021 17:28

Reason? Surufatinib NDA approved in China for ep-NET?

[its the oxman] 04/1/2021 17:23

Any reason for today's continued rise or is it just a mysterious as the recent fall.

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 15:44

Also FinboxIO seem to use a rate of 8.5% in mosyt of their HCM models

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 15:42

I agree DBADVN, seems high to me too. Also, I think from memory most patents last for 20 years on Chi-Med's assets from grant, Savo for example expires in Europe in 2031, Frquinitinib U.S patent expires in 2028 so it's goining to be important to get these assets launched ASAP.

It's worth looking at Simply Wall St's model (section 3.1, view data, to see their model assumptions, with a Discount rate of 6.9%)

[dbadvn] 03/1/2021 12:13

Just noticed that TD are using a discount rate of 12.5% . I’m guessing that is to reflect a relatively short sales cycle (say 8 years from low to peak to steady state) but it still seems far too high ?

[dbadvn] 03/1/2021 12:01

Thanks nos, that’s exactly what is needed.

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 09:47

indeed, I expect TD or Edison to provide one shortly

Here is the most recent:-

hxxps://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/innovative-pipeline-closer-to-realising-its-potential/

scroll down to exhibit 3

Both TD and Edison have provided subsequent updates since the above published on the 10th Aug but these later updates didn't include projected rev figures.

As we got major news last week I'd expect them to be releasing new figures in the next couple of weeks.