Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 01/5/2021 08:00

steeple - nice story about Oxford and to your last point, that is also my frustration. The share price may well have got ahead of itself 4 or 5 years ago but the opportunity cost here for most investors including many potential institutional ones, is too high.

If you are managing a Fund there's no point in having zero growth in a position in your portfolio for 5 years, followed by a big uplift, surely as a Fund Manager you would rather have more predictable steady growth in value of your holdings.

If I managed a Fund and HCM was on my Watchlist I'd avoid it for that reason alone. I am certain that over say a 10 year period this will end up as a $20bn+ mcap Company but the issue is, you could probably match that performance by investing in a basket of FAANG stocks without the risk or the sheer pain of seeing the Company languish for long periods.

I also think an Asian listing will provide some much needed interest. If you look at Beigene and Innovent you can see how Asian Investors value these types of Biopharmas!

[nerdofsteel] 30/4/2021 18:27

down 25% year-to-date

this is such a disappointing performance given the progress. The market doesn't like this Company.

[nerdofsteel] 30/4/2021 12:59

haha, gotta love these weird BOT generated headlines - the CEO actually got 99% of the votes to remain in place!

[steeplejack] 30/4/2021 11:43

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholders-may-wary-increasing-hutchison-000430831.html

[nerdofsteel] 30/4/2021 08:01

that's a great point DBADVN. I know Beigene are forecast to have much higher revs and will be cashflow positive by 2024, the same as HCM, but on aTM basis they have an EV/Revs of 91 which gives them a mcap of $30 billion. I'm not expecting that here but it seems to me that the current valuation does not reflect the rapid growth to come over the next few years. I though the stock market was forward looking.

I appreciate the Company believes the share price got ahead of itself 4 years ago but to remain at that level is very disappointing. For some smaller albeit loyal investors the opportunity cost to remain invested is becoming too high to bear. I'm not at that point yet myself but could get there if there's no improvment in the next year.

[dbadvn] 29/4/2021 21:06

A quick look at the Beigene investors website shows how far ahead of HM they are in presenting an aggressive commercial model.

The HM presentation looks more like a science class by comparison.

That needs to change.

[fionascott1234] 29/4/2021 20:32

On Monday I was close to breaking even at which point I would have thrown in the towel and of course 6 weeks ago I was talking about catching a falling knife when considering a further large purchase. However the 7% drop today on even trading by close + the only news being a Phase 2 registration study of HMPL689 in patients makes me feel that I've caught a series of knives with HCM.

[nerdofsteel] 29/4/2021 17:50

down 20% since January despite great annual results and Surufatinib approval in China. Nothing seems to stop the malaise.

[nerdofsteel] 29/4/2021 17:49

me too, I mean, I have £100's of K invested in FAANG stocks, if I'd ditched this position in HCM and added it to my U.S. stocks I'd have made a lot of money.

Look at Beigene, look at Innovent. Even independent Analysts think this should be north of $8bn.

This has been a brilliant investment until 2016 and a disaster since. The opportunity cost is simply too high.

[cockneytrader] 29/4/2021 08:36

NOS, well that's how it rolls. We can only hope that an Asia listing has some merit.

[nerdofsteel] 29/4/2021 07:13

It seems to have no regard for the way the market values or perceives it. I often compare it to Beigene, but Innovent is another very similar Chinese company with global aspirations and a similar pipeline, slightly higher revs and a $12bn mcap. When CKHH dropped below 50% thanks to the botched placing I had hoped that would free the Company up to start really pushing itself from a visibility and marketing perspective The opportunity cost here is getting too high for me now, I'd have doubled my investment over the last 5 years in a U.S. Tracker or actually had a 12-FOLD increase if I'd invested in Beigene, which I was considering at the time!

[steeplejack] 28/4/2021 23:58

Yes very irritating that BeiGene is so much better at marketing their wares.Frankly,i can't quite see where the Damascene appreciation experience for this company (despite the name change) is going to come from.It's a sell into strength for the simple reason that the company really doesn't care about its rating.It paddles along with the odd inept placing and give away placings to specialist institutions in the knowledge (i suspect) that it can't be taken over without the approval of its erstwhile parent.Enough is a enough really.Where is the catalyst for our forward looking markets to radically review their appreciation of this stock?

[dbadvn] 28/4/2021 20:42

very annoying to see Beigene leap 9% when it makes a trial announcement and see HM go sideways after several such events ...!!!!

[nerdofsteel] 22/4/2021 07:01

fair enough, just my musings and opinion, one can change one's mind on things of course Bareknee!

[nerdofsteel] 22/4/2021 07:01

fair enough, just my musings and opinion, one can change one's mind on things of course Bareknee!

[bareknee] 21/4/2021 17:37

NoS / Davey

If I remember rightly, last time you sold out the share price was something like the equivalent of 30 to 40p in today's prices and then you had to buy back in at something like the equivalent of 200p ?

Obviously history is very unlikely to repeat itself, and I can't see the share price rising something like sixfold in the next few years, but if you've got a balanced portfolio and believe the market will catch up at some time, then short termism seems a bit odd. Not that there's anything wrong with looking elsewhere, but given you've been so effusive on Chimed for years it seems out of character.

BB

[lauders] 20/4/2021 10:41

There again you could have deployed it somewhere you thought was better and then found out that the plan didn't quite go as expected. Just done that with some holdings, switched from one held for a while, to another and you guessed it, the switch lost me money SO FAR as the new buy has gone down. In the long run who knows what will happen? Patience is the hardest when watching almost everyone else talking about their spectacular gains!

[nerdofsteel] 20/4/2021 09:04

I suppose I'm looking forward to Savo approval in China for exon14 del although it's a small indication/patient population so is not going to be worth much to the Company....sigh

The opportunity cost here is becoming very concerning. The amount of money I have tied up here could probably be better deployed elsewhere.

[whatja] 14/4/2021 13:55

I must admit to seeing AZN placing the Savolitinib bet as a backstop for tagrisso.
The better tagrisso does the less need there is for Savolitinib.
Hence I am very encouraged by the restart of savoir and the other mono therapy and combos being planned.
Trinity has a chart showing where they see value in different drugs....savo has stalled and is now decreasing as a source of value....but maybe it can be turned around.

[dbadvn] 14/4/2021 11:17

But no mention of HM. These guys are still playing hardball. CH needs to make sure that whenever an HM product is mentioned in any context it is clearly attributed to HM.

It’s basic marketing.

[nerdofsteel] 14/4/2021 07:33

Thankyou for posting Lauders - very interesting

[nerdofsteel] 10/4/2021 06:35

I agree DBADVN, he is doing a great job, particularly in setting up the U.S operation in-house rather than partnering, ,I think that will pay off very well in the future. As for a Main Listing in London, smaller Companies with next to no resources have managed to do it (Tiziana last month for example) and I would have thought the NOMAD/in-house Broker would do the large majority of the legwork. There wouldn't even be a need for the Company to do Investor roadshows etc, it's purely a legal/admin exercise if they aren't raising new money.