Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 04/1/2021 17:23

Any reason for today's continued rise or is it just a mysterious as the recent fall.

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 15:44

Also FinboxIO seem to use a rate of 8.5% in mosyt of their HCM models

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 15:42

I agree DBADVN, seems high to me too. Also, I think from memory most patents last for 20 years on Chi-Med's assets from grant, Savo for example expires in Europe in 2031, Frquinitinib U.S patent expires in 2028 so it's goining to be important to get these assets launched ASAP.

It's worth looking at Simply Wall St's model (section 3.1, view data, to see their model assumptions, with a Discount rate of 6.9%)

[dbadvn] 03/1/2021 12:13

Just noticed that TD are using a discount rate of 12.5% . I’m guessing that is to reflect a relatively short sales cycle (say 8 years from low to peak to steady state) but it still seems far too high ?

[dbadvn] 03/1/2021 12:01

Thanks nos, that’s exactly what is needed.

[nerdofsteel] 03/1/2021 09:47

indeed, I expect TD or Edison to provide one shortly

Here is the most recent:-

hxxps://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/innovative-pipeline-closer-to-realising-its-potential/

scroll down to exhibit 3

Both TD and Edison have provided subsequent updates since the above published on the 10th Aug but these later updates didn't include projected rev figures.

As we got major news last week I'd expect them to be releasing new figures in the next couple of weeks.

[dbadvn] 02/1/2021 19:51

What we need is an updated list of prospective revenues made up of a table of all the drugs in development with weighted % of success and revenue vs time. Usually a few of the analysts provide this . I’ll try and get one.

[nerdofsteel] 02/1/2021 16:53

Savolitinib NDA accepted and granted priority review in China in July 2020 so ahould be approved mid 2021 - target peak sales $239m of which we get 30% + manufacturing so probably more like 60-70%

U.S> NDA submission expected 2021 with launch late 2022 @ $1500m peak sales, Chi-Med will get 10% (excluding manufacturing revs)

It turns out the biggest financial opp could end up being Fruquintinib CRC ex-China where luckily Lilly didn't take up their rights so hence we have 100% of it. Forecast peak sales $1.2bn pa, launch 2023

This will be a $20bn mcap Company by 2025/2026

Genmab have done it and are still growing

[its the oxman] 02/1/2021 10:34

Hopefully price has the legs to return to 500p meantime.

[its the oxman] 02/1/2021 10:33

Would be nice, And Savo approval expected sometime H1 this year is it not?

[nerdofsteel] 01/1/2021 14:31

$20bn mcap by end 2025 is my prediction, barring any major pipeline hiccups and assuming Savo gets approved for Exon14 del in China and gets approved in the U.S.

[whatja] 31/12/2020 14:23

If you are prepared to hold for 5 years, anything under 600 is a decent price and now should prove to be a profitable time to add.

[its the oxman] 31/12/2020 10:09

Wish i bought more now c. 420p. But really just happy news continues to be positive.

[nerdofsteel] 31/12/2020 08:29

great update, the Company delivers yet again on the pipeline with 100% owned Surufatinib/Sulanda.

Early next year we should also get pancreatic NET indication being approved followed by FDA approvals. In the U.S. the drug will start shipping prior to approval thanks to the Patient Access Program

We also have Savolitinib approval in China to look forward to shortly.

CH's desire to be a $20bn mcap Company within a few years is now well on track.

[steeplejack] 30/12/2020 21:29

Good close in NY at 462 equivalent.Not that we expect the trojans of the AIM market to reflect the fact.Nice widespread tomorrow at the opening as we expect of the junior market.

[whatja] 30/12/2020 19:30

Zoolanda sorry sulanda (surufatinib) approved today in China
CH can give us his best blue steel look in 2021.

[nerdofsteel] 29/12/2020 07:01

Press Release today Chi-Med Initiates Rolling Submission of NDA to U.S. FDA for Surufatinib for the Treatment of Advanced Neuroendocrine Tumors

– Company plans to complete rolling submission in the first half of 2021 –
– The pivotal Phase III SANET-ep trial demonstrated surufatinib reduced risk of progression or death by 67%, extending PFS of non-pancreatic NET patients with an acceptable risk/benefit ratio –
– The pivotal Phase III SANET-p trial demonstrated surufatinib reduced risk of progression or death by 51%, extending PFS of pancreatic NET patients with an acceptable risk/benefit ratio –
– First NDA submission by Chi-Med in the United States –

Hong Kong, Shanghai, & Florham Park, NJ: Monday, December 28, 2020: Hutchison China MediTech Limited (“Chi-Med̶1;) (Nasdaq/AIM: HCM) today announces that it has initiated the filing of a New Drug Application (“NDA”) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) – the first portion of a rolling submission for surufatinib for the treatment of pancreatic and non-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (“NET”). Chi-Med plans to complete the NDA submission in the first half of 2021, which would be the company’s first NDA in the U.S.

The Fast Track Designation granted earlier this year by the FDA permits the company to submit sections of the NDA on a rolling basis. The NDA is supported by data from the two positive Phase III studies of surufatinib in NET in China, along with data from surufatinib studies in U.S. non-pancreatic and pancreatic NET patients. The company previously announced that it had reached an agreement with the FDA during a pre-NDA meeting, whereby these studies may serve as the basis to support an NDA submission. Filing acceptance of the NDA is subject to FDA review of the complete application. The data package will also be used to file a Marketing Authorization Application (“MAA”) to the European Medicines Agency (“EMA”) in 2021, based on scientific advice from the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP).

Marek Kania, M.D., Managing Director and Chief Medical Officer of Hutchison MediPharma International, said, “With the initiation of our first regulatory filing in the U.S., we are executing our strategy of building a global pharmaceutical company that brings innovative cancer therapies to patients worldwide. There is a great need for additional therapies to treat neuroendocrine tumors, and surufatinib has demonstrated significant clinical benefit in patients with advanced tumors. The NDA filing to the U.S. FDA represents a significant step toward our goal of commercializing surufatinib and other novel therapies globally.”

The company plans to initiate an Expanded Access Protocol to ensure patients with limited therapeutic options have access to this important treatment. Enrollment into this early access program is anticipated to begin in the first quarter of 2021, once regulatory clearance of the protocol has been granted by the FDA.

[whatja] 28/12/2020 21:02

Steeplejack, I somewhat agree with you that CKHH is a dead hand on the tiller at the moment.
However do not be surprised to see CKHH trade in HCM for a smaller share of something bigger and some cash....it is rumoured to be doing that with its Indonesian mobile phone operation, this year it has already forced its oil and gas company into a merger turning a 35% holding to a 20% holding and sold its European mobile towers for 10bn Euro including a 10% stake in the enlarged CEllnex operation.
It holds HCM as in investment....so it can be sold down when needed.

In my view HCM has provided security for the long term plan, it should perhaps stand back a bit more now the company is reaching its own take off speed.

[steeplejack] 28/12/2020 19:40

Interesting comments.HCM sometimes comes over as a tad ‘relaxed’;.”Oh well,we don’t need a full LSE listing,yes we’ll do an HK listing when propitious,never fear ...the merits of our drug portfolio will out in due course”.This cool but somewhat casual attitude might come from being inherently confident but also owes something to the fact that HCM is effectively immune to takeover which, it remains,even though the old parent now has a holding below 50%.Ordinarily,a company with this potential would be wondering if a predator wasn’t doing some due diligence and ,if Hutchinson wasn’t ever present in the wings with that substantial equity holding,I think a number of corporate departments would be doing just that on behalf of a number of major players.There certainly appears to be a ‘handbrakeR17; restraining the share price currently.

[steeplejack] 28/12/2020 15:20

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM)Last but not least is a $4 billion holding company in China's drug manufacturing sector. Hutchison China MediTech, doing business as Chi-Med, owns a group of subsidiaries engaged in the manufacture and distribution of pharmaceuticals. HCM's products include over the counter medications and consumer healthcare items, as well as sophisticated therapeutics and immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune disorders.As with many pharmaceutical companies, HCM's share price is driven by the company's approved products and development pipeline. In this area, HCM has two advantages.First advantage is Elunate, a drug approved by Chinese regulators as a treatment for colorectal cancer. The company has been working with Eli Lilly, one of the giants of Big Pharma, to fast-track marketing and patient access; earlier this year, that agreement was amended to improve commercialization efforts on Elunate to include all of China.The second advantage is Savolitinib, a drug developed as a treatment for some types of non-small cell lung cancer. The company's New Drug Application (NDA), a key milestone in regulatory approval, has been accepted by China's National Medical Products Administration.Both drugs are being investigated for additional indications, and are part of an active pipeline at the company, which includes nine medications in various stages of development.Among the fans is Deutsche Bank analyst Rajan Sharma who rates HCM a Buy. His $40 price target shows the extent of his confidence, implying ~37% upside for the coming year. (To watch Sharma's track record, click here)Defending his bullish stance on HCM, Sharma writes, "We believe Chi-Med is well on track in its evolution from a Chinese pharmaceutical/OTC company into a fully integrated, innovative global oncology company [...] We see the next steps of Chi-Med's evolution as being approval of its first solely developed drug and launches outside of China, particularly in the US. The company is on track to achieve both of these in the next two years."All in all, HCM has earned a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 2 Buy reviews in the past three months. Shares are priced at $29.28 and the $40 average price target matches Sharma's. (See HCM stock analysis on TipRanks)

[nerdofsteel] 28/12/2020 09:17

indeed miti, let's hope so. I have a very large position here as you know, and I've been extremely disappointed in the share price over the last 4 years - I could have made a lot of money investing in my other favorites - Beigene, Genmab and Juno so my loyalty to the company has cost me dearly. I hope 2021 will reverse that. I always get perplexed when I look at Beigene, how it grew so quickly by striking deals with other big pharma etc

We seem to be very (too) conservative and lack innovation on the corporate side. For example, given our distribution and sales channels in China, why haven't we leveraged that to in-licence and resell blockbusters like Beigene did with Celgene? That would have allowed us to ramp up the sales channel and get significant financial uplifts whilst still developing our own pipeline. Chi-Med seem to have the view they want to focus on their own innovation but why not have parallel growth strategies.

If the share price is still in the 400's by the end of 2021 I will have to invest elsewhere. I hope that is not the case.

[miti 1000] 27/12/2020 21:21

Nerdofsteel and Whatja, I agree all is certainly not lost on savo/tagrisso. I noticed that Azn now make prominent mention of the Savannah trial in their recent rns on lung cancer which of course is good sign. Fingers crossed it comes good in 2021 in this regard .

[nerdofsteel] 27/12/2020 17:32

I agree Whatja, and despite the importance of Savo, Surufatinib's profile is now almost as high. I'm also buoyed by the fact the Company has decided to build their own sales & marketing Team in the U.S. rather than out licence to another player, retaining all the financial upside of the asset.

I've been invested for a long time but the last 3 or 4 years have been frustrating, even the launch of Elunate did little to boost the valuation of the Company.

[whatja] 27/12/2020 17:11

Miti, glad to listen to dissenting views as invariably there is some truth to what you say.
It is disappointing how slowly Savolitinib has developed....but the first NDA has now been submitted.
I am not sure of your interpretation that Savo failed three years ago, the study was stopped but that seemed to be about the prospects for treatment with interpretation of external data meaning there was no gain over emerging therapies. This seems to have contradicted by the continuing treatment of the first cohort of patients, hence a potential restart in this area.
Tagrisso has been such a success for AZ that I suspect they have been holding Savo back but they are hiring for marketing staff so the prospect is improving.

Savo is clearly part of the sum of the parts valuation models used by analysts, if they are downplaying savo, then the slack is being taken up by the other drugs in the pipeline. Hence I don’t think it is such a binary play.

I do think 2021 will prove to be an important year with the positives outweighing the negatives.
Greater clarity over Savo strategy, exon 14 skipping approval.
Surufatinib approved in China and US

[nerdofsteel] 27/12/2020 16:20

miti, agree on Savo although AZ have posted a new role on 26th September for a Global Head of Commercialization - DS 1062 & Savolitinib

hxxps://appointments.thetimes.co.uk/job/1332356/global-head-of-commercialization-ds-1062-and-savolitinib/?TrackID=16059

As a Head of Commercialization for new assets DS 1062 & Savolitinib, you'll play a pivotal role in channeling our scientific capabilities to further our agenda on doubling the 5-year survival rate by bringing these new assets to commercialization. The role has leadership accountabilities that are critical to the delivery of AZ business objectives and portfolio value targets.

That suggests all is not lost with Savo doesn't it?