Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 13/12/2020 11:42

Alexion bid might just turn the tide here.

[yidarmytom] 11/12/2020 07:04

Way undervalued here IMO, look at Biotechs with much smaller pipelines that have bigger market caps. Once the revenues start taking off and they become profitable mid 2020s this will take off

[its the oxman] 10/12/2020 16:18

Genmab seems the star performer to date. Tempted to buy more biog which is my main biotech exposure but that has rocketed as well. Still cling to the thought hcm will come good and feels better value though I have nothing really firm to pin that belief on.

[nerdofsteel] 10/12/2020 13:07

good insights steeplejack - I also look regularly at 2 others on a similar trajectory to Chi-Med:-

Genmab
Beigene

[nerdofsteel] 10/12/2020 13:06

New Edison Research Note today



We value HCM at $7.0bn (£7.23/share)

[steeplejack] 09/12/2020 17:10

HCM is pretty much where it was 3 years ago.Big leap in price 4-5 years ago but despite all the advances the shares have locked into a fairly broad trading range dictated at times by some cavalier fund raising.So,in this case,it is better to arrive than travel.If you employ the measure of opportunity cost,this stock has been poor compared to an Apple or Amazon.However,it217;s been very comparable to Biogen or Alexion over recent years which suggests that very positive things are required to kick the stock out of a fairly dull sector performance which has been defined by some large cap heavyweights.Thereagain,Alexion with a $25bn market cap is a current favoured nap of motley fool who believe that eps are set to improve sharply.Maybe there are catalysts afoot that will invigorate the sector and propel HCM to significantly higher ground.Both Biogen and Alexion are currently rated as a strong buy A rating by Charles Schwab.

[fionascott1234] 09/12/2020 16:26

Agreed Ox since there's nothing drastically wrong since it was at £5 so it is beginning to look a better deal by the day as it drips down.

[its the oxman] 09/12/2020 15:39

Thought at 500p things were looking sweet but here we are back at 430p. Another few percent and I'll have a little top up, Not sure what will get us going again.

[steeplejack] 09/12/2020 15:00

It would be fair to say that being a holder of HCM requires infinite patience.

[nerdofsteel] 09/12/2020 11:18

I agree, but their comment about large molecule means they must be acquiring some IP or large molecules in development because the Co's own pipeline is currently 100% small molecule

[whatja] 08/12/2020 13:16

Phase 2 factory development is probably quite a long way out.....if they are going to build capability they have a few years lab work to do first.
CH last said they were considering partnering rather than M&A which seems a more pragmatic approach rather than risk blowing $$$ on goodwill.

[nerdofsteel] 08/12/2020 11:02

"The second phase is expected to include expansion into large molecule production."

Does this tie in with the Co's desire to acquire a large molecule asset / Company I wonder? ;o-))

[nerdofsteel] 05/12/2020 09:09

A HK or Chinese listing will get Asian investors on board and a proper valuation. Shanghai's star market may also be a possibility (China's equivalent of the NASDAQ).

[nerdofsteel] 05/12/2020 09:08

Forecast revs by 2026 is $1.2bn with FCF of circa $300m

That should equate to a mcap of around $21bn - the CEO said he can see $20bn on the horizon

Like Genmab, this could easily go up 5x in the next 5 years once it starts generating cash. All the hundreds of millions that have been invested in the pipeline are due to start paying back investors significantly from 2023.

[its the oxman] 04/12/2020 11:39

Very much hope so. A further drop closer to 400-420p and I will be recycling some profits from elsewhere into hcm.

[dbadvn] 03/12/2020 14:16

HCM share price , lacking the ridiculous hype surrounding other biotechs, and any takeover premium , will follow the numbers. It will start to rocket as soon as the market sees the cash being thrown off in the next few years as sales rise rapidly.

[fionascott1234] 03/12/2020 13:37

Pricing understandable certainly but it would be nice to have some positive information from head office to give a fillip upwards for a change.

[steeplejack] 03/12/2020 12:42

"WASH­ING­TON-The House unan­i­mously ap­proved leg­is­la­tion on Wednes­day that threat­ens a trad­ing ban of shares of Chi­nese com­pa­nies such as Al­ibaba Group Hold­ing Ltd. over con­cerns that their au­dits aren't suf­fi­ciently reg­ulated" Wall St Journal 3 Dec.All this is helping to depress HCM's price.There's speculation that Chinese companies will accelerate plans to list on alternative exchanges like Hong Kong albeit Chinese companies listed on US exchanges will have three years to comply with the new US audit requirements.

[steeplejack] 02/12/2020 16:16

This,along with the likes of Alibaba is suffering collateral damage from Chinese/US concerns .

[dbadvn] 17/11/2020 12:23

CPP are apparently known for doing an insane amount of due diligence and research before investing. They are also know for good timing . So Inthink this is really positive.

[steeplejack] 17/11/2020 11:05

Chi-Med Announces US$100 Million Equity Investment by CPP InvestmentsThis is being done at $30.Back on the 25 June,General Atlantic picked up $100m of stock at $25 but struck an 18 month option to purchase a further $100m worth of stock at $30 which might well have determined the price of this new deal.