Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2021 14:51

Full year results for 2020 likely to be published later this month, likely to use the new CPR to update reserves.

[comedy] 02/3/2021 14:38

best to buy now and gets to 4p ...30% return??? company not going to fall over tomorrow...after all they want to go out paddle boating 2023???

3.5p and 3p stop losses taken out???

missed market dip below 3p this morning...but buying as see a nice healthy 30% back.

this week or next week?

[ishy001] 02/3/2021 14:20

BT are you watching XTR. Biggest de ramper on XTR board was telling us to buy HUR.

[telbap] 02/3/2021 13:45

When the next trading update anyone?

[gregpeck7] 02/3/2021 12:53

It was already so low.. hard to see it going any lower!

[sloppyg] 02/3/2021 12:12

Most current update on production cost was from Interims 11 Sep.

H1 2020 production of 14.6k BOPD @ cash production costs of $18.2/bbl.

So b/e $265k per day plus G&A, interest

At 11k BOPD therefore $30/bbl b/e looks a pretty decent estimate to me.

[bocase] 02/3/2021 12:12

It is a much better reaction than I had feared from that RNS. I think comedy has a point, it was so negative it seems to be deliberatively negative. For what purpose we can only imagine. I had feared a 50% drop but we could even finish up on the day!!

[telbap] 02/3/2021 12:11

Slowly creeping back up, Obs Mr. market is not too disappointed ?Let's face it at 3p it's priced to go bust, so given there is still some light somewhere at the end of the tunnel, but sadly that tunnel just got one year longer. IMHO, management and bond holders want to see more cash coming in, oil stay up above the $60 mark, and see what post pandemic world looks like for oil consumption. Lots of variables there, so it's no wonder that they have kicked the can down the road.

[kooba] 02/3/2021 12:07

On the Hamman note on the production price sensitivity calculations which i must presume are cleared by the company ebitda on production 12k at $60 $125m , 10k ..$104m they have figures for $70 but extrapolating at $65 you get $145m at 12000 and $122m at 10000.The figure i was questioning was that on production of 10000bopd (not my estimate) at $65 you get $7.5m per month free cash...i believe this is light as costs are too high Hannam say $10m...so it would appear they are using $33 cost if production slips to 10000.That is by the way below their 2021 production estimate.

[agnabeya] 02/3/2021 12:01

“ duplicate

[agnabeya] 02/3/2021 12:00

Meh. I’m holding. No point in selling at these prices- even although my last buys are a little in profit. When I read the RNS I thought we’d have dropped 2p. Yet we haven’t. Still holding for now. Waiting and hoping. GLA.

[jacks13] 02/3/2021 11:54

Steve, from the Bluewater Heads of Terms Agreement:

Hurricane has the right to terminate the Bareboat Charter and the production, operating and services agreement (POSA) for convenience subject to serving a three (3) months prior written notice during the period of three (3) years from first oil and a six (6) months prior written notice during the two subsequent option periods of 3 years and 4 years respectively, all subject to payment of an early termination fee (the “ETF”). The principal amount of the ETF is USD 56 million, but the calculation of the final ETF amount is subject to adjustment mechanisms taking the remaining contracting period into consideration.

[steve73] 02/3/2021 11:42

Original Opex was quoted at $22/bbl at 17kbopd, $60/bbl oil price averaged over 10 years, with a 1$/bbl increase/decrease for $70 or $50 OP. Opex to drop to mid teens if using the fully debottlenecked capacity of 40kbopd, but there was no indication of cost at lower throughputs. (Ref. Corporate Pres'n Q2 2019)

If the $22/bbl at 17kbopd represented the minimum "fixed" price, i.e. 22 x 17 ... or c. $374k/day (or $37.4/bbl for 10kbopd).

edit.. thanks ngms ^^

[ngms27] 02/3/2021 11:34

Steve73, the original term was 3 years with an agreed extension to 6 years to be triggered in June 2021 if required.

[whitedukejay] 02/3/2021 11:32

Yes not a big enough drop for some.

[fat frank] 02/3/2021 11:27

To be fair, a drop in share price of ONLY 14% after an RNS is pretty good for this stock!!!

[whitedukejay] 02/3/2021 11:27

"wouldn't want to be locked in for longer than necessary with no production."

Get a grip fool ,that would be the least of shareholders worries.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2021 11:25

kooba
2 Mar '21 - 11:20 - 24056 of 24056
0 0 0
“Maybe go check your figures? What's HUR said?”

So why is taking $30 wrong exactly?


.......Look at last year's CMD pres....cash opex breakeven given as $19/bbl...with production @ 18k bopd.

...Costs are largely fixed, although Bluewater take a bigger cut from higher oil prices. Last year they were saying daily cash opex would be $342k in 2021. You were talking about 10k bopd......the maths is straightforward....



Add G&A on top of that.... & don't forget hedging costs

[fat frank] 02/3/2021 11:24

Production costs were quoted as $18 bbl in previous HUR statement.

Daily costs of $400k per day were before cost reduction program.

[kooba] 02/3/2021 11:20

"Maybe go check your figures? What's HUR said?"So why is taking $30 wrong exactly?

[steve73] 02/3/2021 11:18

I thought it was a 6 year term with the option to extend to 10... but hopefully there was an earlier break option... wouldn't want to be locked in for longer than necessary with no production.

[kooba] 02/3/2021 11:14

From Hannam noteAt US$42/bbl Brent in 2020 (and with a realised price of just US$35/bbl), we estimate that Hurricane was able to generate US$74mm of EBITDA or post-tax cash flow (pre-financing costs) from 14kbbl/d of production.If you work that back looks to me something like $15 clear on $35 realised ..now that would be cost of $20 a barrel. Now production last heard at 12000bopd so cost per unit would be higher to say $25.I'm taking $30.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2021 11:13

kooba
2 Mar '21 - 11:03 - 24050 of 24051
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You tell me “the greatGeraldo”...always with the questions no answers. Evidence it’s wrong and I’ll change my calculations.

..Oh dear.

Look at last year's CMD pres....cash opex breakeven given as $19/bbl...with production @ 18k bopd. Add G&A on top of that....

[ishy001] 02/3/2021 11:12

Well I did say HUR not going anywhere anytime soon. I'd rather invest more in XTR then HUR.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2021 11:04

Doubtless someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but think the original deal was a 3 year charter with an option to extend by 3....with a decision needed 2 years in. Given how things have turned out, maybe the original terms could be tweaked? Extend by a year at a time?