Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[htrocka2] 05/1/2021 22:52

I see that Centrica have successfully off loaded a non related asset...(Probably also involved with the current HUR 'Stake Holder's' negotiations with regard to 'Spirit')…….they have a corporate update on January 14th...might get a bit of info on their strategy going forward as they've stated that they want to be a 'more focused energy services and solutions company' ..They may hint at how the 'Stake Holders' negotiations are progressing.....We'll see.

[professor_kemche] 05/1/2021 21:32

Why tho, u make valid points

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 21:31

Only from the usual suspects....

[professor_kemche] 05/1/2021 21:27

Y leon get so many down tick

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 21:22

Well you bought in big style on the first CPR NGMS, so why accuse HUR of faking the 2nd CPR??! It seems quite a few muppets fell for the first one, esp. the usual detractors here ?

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 21:11

A great post by sausage party lse....LOLSausagepartyPrice: 2.452No OpinionRE: HUR- U.K. Stock Market Multibagger of 2021Today 16:16Interesting. Oil below the spill point of the trap? Could well be, but still think 7 side track into the attic as a safe bet for cash generation and further finance towards water injection.

[ngms27] 05/1/2021 19:20

The problem they have is that they can keep producing well 6 on ESP above the commercial threshold for a while but if they try and maintain oil production with rising water cut, they will be getting more and more voidage and will hence bring forth bubblepoint. Well 7z sidetrack then becomes gassy...

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2021 19:11

Leoneobull
5 Jan '21 - 18:58 - 22670 of 22671
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Check my sums on the oil price? Brent hit a low of 16 USD. It is now $53.60. A vague recollection is the CMD was made when POO was on its knees. Brent is up more than 300% since its low point.

....Nope. Try again.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2021 19:10

Leoneobull
5 Jan '21 - 18:45 - 22669 of 22670
0 1 0
I know Gerald....amazing how you vote people down and respond within a minute

....I don't pay advfn, don't have my name in blue, so can't vote posts down. Thought everyone knew that was how the system worked

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:58

Check my sums on the oil price? Brent hit a low of 16 USD. It is now $53.60. A vague recollection is the CMD was made when POO was on its knees. Brent is up more than 300% since its low point. We don't need to check the POO the very same day, as we aren't anal....the point is Brent up 300% is better than a kick in the teeth

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:45

I know Gerald....amazing how you vote people down and respond within a minute. Odd for a non holder...2021 q4 sidetracked well, end 2022. For a WI.What I'm unclear about is Lincoln. NGMS says poor PI, but even half what these world class prolific wells deliver would be worthwhile? Spirit haven't said no yet, and there was a hush hush in Q and A on September 11th about Lincoln.It ain't over til the fat lady (or here the miserable guts) sing!!!!

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2021 18:42

I know ..... hence the plan to sweep the oil from the sandstones using a WI.

..Back end of next year most likely before it's up & running...... then it'll take into 2023 before any effect is noticed.

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:41

To put it CRUDEly, all eyes on POO

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:40

One does wonder if they had out the wells a bit higher up would we be producing a lot more and were it not for CV , we wouldn't be in this position. Surely with a single well producing prolifically somebody will potential of this and our other acreage?

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:38

I know ..... hence the plan to sweep the oil from the sandstones using a WI. Maybe other remediation, etc. The more revenue comes in the door, the more opportunities open up

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2021 18:28

Leoneobull
5 Jan '21 - 18:16 - 22663 of 22663
0 0 1
Brent at 53.60 usd. Even at 12000 a day we are FCF positive. I'd be amazed if we can't reach agreement with the CBs.

..Whole point is that booked reserves are running out ....that's not my speculation, it's what HUR have put in writing.... & of course, well 6 is being treated with kid gloves in the hope that it continues to deliver cash rather than swallow it...

[leoneobull] 05/1/2021 18:16

Brent at 53.60 usd. Even at 12000 a day we are FCF positive. I'd be amazed if we can't reach agreement with the CBs...partial equitisation doesn't mean 90% unless things were dire and the 18 months was almost up....at this stage a renegotiation and restructuring may not mean all is lost.....Ggh Ggh has articulated better than I could but if HUR need funding from equity placement, all stakeholders will get a haircut not only equity dilution

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/1/2021 17:43

back2basics1
5 Jan '21 - 17:09 - 22661 of 22661
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tournesol, If/When an agreement here on plan fundings is reached with HUR stakeholders, both the relating announcement/RNS, and subsequent share price reaction will be extremely fast and furious,

....If you were a Convertible holder, how much would you drop the conversion price in order to agree to an extension of the bonds? @ 10p, bondholders would end up with close to half the company......a lower conv price & bondholders end up with more of the equity, obv......

....then most of the spare cash would be risked on a sidetrack of 7z, which may or may not succeeed as hoped & if well 6 goes TU in the meantime & starts swallowing cash rather than generating it.....


.....maybe issue some equity as well to give some headroom... £40/50 million would be handy, but that would take a huge equity issue....& another huge dilution for current holders......

...yet folk still talk about HUR multibagging..........

[back2basics1] 05/1/2021 17:09

tournesol, If/When an agreement here on plan fundings is reached with HUR stakeholders, both the relating announcement/RNS, and subsequent share price reaction will be extremely fast and furious, hence if no FOMO and significantly at that, then I guess one can as you suggest, “wait and watch from the sidelines” but IMO, risk/reward here is incredibly favourable at this Market Cap, and can no longer be ignored, please DYOR.

[tournesol] 05/1/2021 16:53

back2basics

Your comment is completely inaccurate.

Hur does not have "prolific acreage".

Nor does it have "prolific assets".

Lancaster was declared a commercial discovery but subsequent events have revealed that the reservoir model was seriously mistaken so reserves have been massively downgraded. Current reserves are only enough to sustain production until next year.

The Lincoln and Warwick fields have been drilled without making any commercially viable discoveries. The JV partner has lost interest.

various other fields have been relinquished as unpromising.

Production at Lancaster is way below previous plans and the water cut is rapidly deteriorating.

Resources across the entire acreage have been slashed by 95%.

there is cash in bank but it is needed to meet liabilities over the next year or 2, notably the CB's. The co has already flagged up risks around that.

The contract for the Aoka Mizu will need renewing in the not too distant future. The original was done on the basis that risks and rewards would be shared by the vessel's owners. They will not make that mistake again. So renewal would
a) saddle Hur with an expensive multi-year lease
b) increase production costs

Tax credits are of questionable value. The system is designed so that tax credits cannot be used on assets other than those where the losses were incurred. There might be ways around this but they come with risks.

You envisage a scenario in which additional funding is obtained and new initiatives revealed to apply that funding so as to improve matters. I don't know what the probability of that would be, I'd guess pretty small - say 10-20% at a generous maximum? (I really think 5% but I don't want to be mean here)

There must be at least a 50% chance that management will decide to preserve its funds in order to meet its obligations. That would lead to an orderly winding up which might be the best outcome on offer.

And there must be some chance of a disorderly winding up - say the water cut gets worse or the reservoir pressure falls, or the run of bad luck continues in a different fashion.

Of course we won't have multiple outcomes so we will never actually know what the probabilities are - only the single outcome which eventuates. But as investors we should surely be looking to play the odds.

In doing so the other factor is the reward recieved in exchange for taking the risk. I can't see a multi-bag reward being obtained overnight by anyone who buys at the current price and is rewarded by a massive instantaneous re-rating. That means the optimum strategy is surely to wait and watch from the sidelines rather than leave your money exposed on a north facing hillside whilst the wolves close in and nights get colder.

[ngms27] 05/1/2021 16:32

He spins me round and round and plays the same record so I'm not sure

[professor_zxie] 05/1/2021 16:17

So Fat Frank is alive?

[ngms27] 05/1/2021 16:13

back2basics1. I entirely agree HUR's current valuation is not at all a true representation of the real value.