Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 19:17

But for now, back to reality. All teletubbies

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 19:16

I cant give you direct HUR advice 're it's micro and macro

To beat me , it's simple. You have to beat the city flows. To the best of my ability, I try to read them and their ins and outs and sneaky distributions and accumulations.

Beat them? You beat me.. And well done if you do

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 19:04

My tip for you is simple. If you believe in it ? Fine. Just don't let that belief bring you below 0.00% in the holding P&L

At that point, belief is costing. Nobody should believe that much in any company SP

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 17:51

But dont worry. Don't worry my son.

All the shorts are not positioned yet. Just like June and July, a good news day will come to trigger more teletubbies targeting 1000p. Trigger their orders above the 'excitable'numbers. Then probably fall back to 30p by day close

But hey... at least it's a few hours of 'burn shorters burn'

You know... that song that rang out at 64.7p...

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 17:46

Nissan I'm very aware.

Did you know that it wont stop me being right?

[nissan300] 29/7/2019 17:38

SentimentRules Are you aware that we all think that you are a "Wa----"

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 17:27

Cant find me binoculars. I think its her though guys.. .the tanker nobody knew about. 545p tomorrow

[sentimentrules] 29/7/2019 17:13

Well well well. I go away for a few days and what happens? The bull drivel returns

Let's assess

64p...teletubby buy buy
60p ... fraggle support
57p..... excited smurfs
55p, 50, 47p , 45 p and now circa 43p....
Teletubby supports.

What's the analysis? Only TELETUBBY BUY BUY's

Dear oh dear...

Anyone got eyes on the tanker? Maybe the crew got thirsty and drank all the water

[hello31] 29/7/2019 16:48

The NPV (Net Present Value) or theoretical share price per bbl of oil in the last Edison valuation of Hurricane and attributable to 10 year EPS was some $13.30:

hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/gwa-farm-in-accelerates-resource-monetisation/22217

Post debottlenecking would increase the EPS 2P reserves to 100m plus per the CMD presentations by end of H1 2020.

some have commented this could be 120 million barrels - lets stick with 100 million

This values Hurricane at 100m * $13.3 = $1.33 bn

Divide this by 2.4million shares in issue post debt conversion gives a value of 55 cents or 44p per share.

I rest my case that the 2C resources of Hurricane are not reflected in current share price of Hurricane - not even the 2C resources of Lancaster. NONE of it. Not a single penny.

Skeptical view would be that we still require bottlenecking - but given their achievements in getting an FPSO and securing 2P reserves at Lancaster it is not a big ask for them to find the gas solution, with or without Spirit.

Skeptical view would be that 100m plus of 2P reserves has LC tie in. Yes but even if LC was dry the other 20k could be made up by existing 2 Lancaster wells plus one another to reach 40k capacity and in which case 2P would be higher as well as it won't be net of 50% of Spirit's LC tie in reserves.

I have seen valuations of 2P significantly higher than this and it should be higher in the next Edison valuation matrix as op ex will fall by a third to mid teens or $15.

NOT a drop of 2C resource of Hurricane is included in the valuation, even assuming just $13.30 per barrel of oil . The institutions would have done their own calculations and came to the conclusion that at 47p block purchase they will make a decent turn on it. So can we.

We can't control the share price - only double check our figures to keep our sanity in check.

[gary38] 29/7/2019 15:59

Alken could be the fund that is building a position at a % we have no ideal what it will be,but equally their is possibly a big trader (any clues) here selling down their position,both think they are getting great value .

[zztop] 29/7/2019 15:37

Well there's one plusTomorrow is gonna be better.

[shakudo] 29/7/2019 14:47

Not the best day on a rocketing ftse.

[telbap] 29/7/2019 14:41

Recovering nicely now towards a flat close or maybe a little blue, fingers crossed.

[m5] 29/7/2019 13:25

I agree, not yet for sure.

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 12:29

15 Aug has already been suggested as the earliest likely date for Lincoln news so yes rather too early for any leaks, of oil or whatever! ;)

[telbap] 29/7/2019 12:27

They only spudded on the 12 th July, I can't understand what all the hype on here about someone knowing something, there is no way anyone knows zip yet, it's far too early. Personally I think WD was a bridge too far, in terms of today's tech, they went for the golden egg and got a turkey. LC is way more likely to flow, but the speculators put there are going to take as much advantage in the interim period as possible to make money, it's what they do. We may well see the 30's again before things rebound northwards.If it doesn't flow then we could well be down to the 20's until the EPS proves up. Every delivery we have improved the story, every day towards the next delivery improves the story.Either the chairman or AS said at the AGM should things on the EPS not preform as they should, the market will be informed, they can't and won't sit on the information. Keep cool, watch LC unwind and prey it flows commercially. IMHO Mid August at the earliest for news.

[noelpbz1] 29/7/2019 12:18

correction - 2C resources become 2P reserves. regards N

[noelpbz1] 29/7/2019 12:12

T - I agree, but put it out there to perhaps improve moral - the sooner some of 2C reserves on Lancaster become 2P the better for all. N - still jam tomorrow !

[soilderboy] 29/7/2019 12:00

Everyine keep your eye on the LSE boards. That appears where the leaks end up first.We all have to be right on while it's going south.

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 11:58

How do you know? We will see.

[tournesol] 29/7/2019 11:48

The gas and oil sector generally has a P/E ratio of between 20 and 25

I'm afraid this is an entirely meaningless factoid.

The majors are so big that the sector average is completely unaffected by the much smaller independents and E&P's. So all your statement tells us is that the likes of Shell and BP have an average P?E of 20-25. It tells us nothing about the likes of HUR.

Furthermore, the majors have an entirely different business model than small E&P's. For BP or Shell there is clearly an underlying stream of recurrent activity, so P/E has some meaning. For small Exploration companies which have yet to establish production there are no earnings to drop into the ratio, so it means zilch. For companies like Hur which only just started generating profits, their future profitability has nothing to do with their current profitability, so again P/E is meaningless.

Finally, all resource companies including oil e&P's are effectively selling off the underlying assets. the faster they sell the less they have left. So again p/e tells you nothing about future value.

The way to value E&P's is by attributing value to their reserves, resources and potential. If you are determined to calculate a ratio that means something, then you can calculate EV/bbl of reserves or you could do the same thing for production - EV/bbl produced.

In short P/E is no way to compare/contrast the likes of Soco, PMG, PMO etc.

[bocase] 29/7/2019 11:30

Noel: P.E. of 4.5 next year.

Certainly can't argue with your logic. It all hangs of a successful EPS. If it is as hoped and we won't know until close to year end, then the share price will have to re-rate to a multiple of where it is now.