Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leeson31] 27/3/2017 11:01

refreshing to see someone not so down on it! :-)

it could be sped up, by way of exceleration from a farm-in with Bp or shell... i think theyd prefer to buy it off hur re GLA... but imo, theres billions of barrels there recoverable, and in time the share price will fetch well over 500p .

[blueball] 27/3/2017 10:59

I told you sell at 62p but you no listen.

[tournesol] 27/3/2017 10:59

The key t o understanding the market's reaction is that the RNS says

"….The Company can confirm that the well is an oil discovery with initial data analysis indicating Halifax is linked to the Lancaster field forming a single large hydrocarbon accumulation…."

AND
"... The Halifax Well has successfully identified an extensive oil column, ...The reservoir interval ... is pervasively fractured with porosities similar to those at Lancaster. "

BUT
"... However, constrained by budget, available time and the safety requirement of drilling overbalance, the well was unable to clean up and recovered only traces of formation oil to surface…."

Anyone who has ever been burned by an oil discovery that turned out to be NOT an oil discovery (remember Regal in Kallirachi? remember Northern offshore Italy?) will feel uncomfortable with the fact that oil did not flow to the surface. To those people the RNS indicates a failure. Or perhaps more a more nuanced interpretation would be that it was a technical success but has yet to develop into an unambiguous commercial success. This is, I think, the view that my friend Emptyend expressed and was unfairly attacked for.

On the other hand, anyone who trusts Hurricane in general and Trice in particular, will take heart from the twin assertions that oil has been discovered and that Halifax and Lancaster are conjoined into a single very large reservoir. If that confident statement is borne out, then the share price is destined for a location to the far north of our current position.

My own view may be surmised from the fact that as of yesterday I had 1% of my portfolio invested in HUR. This morning I invested an additional 5% making this now my biggest holding (outside of bonds).

I expect that there might be a see-saw period as holders of each of the alternative views jostle for position. But if the optimists prevail then the price will not be constrained.

[jacks13] 27/3/2017 10:58

This won't be taken out cheaply. Any offer has to meet Kerogen's valuation, and that won't be £1.

[cinques] 27/3/2017 10:57

Either way the end game for the GLA is now in sight, the majors won't be letting this pass.

That's more like it. See, you needed that coffee ;-)

[upwego] 27/3/2017 10:57

Obviously will take many years to get this informaton and prove the theory but we
do know bigger fields get bigger.

We will be taken out before that is realised anyway :)

[upwego] 27/3/2017 10:55

stop being Negative again Leeson ha ha :)

I see 10 billion oil in place with 3 Billion recoverable :)

the clair Field is estimated to be 5 to 8 Billion in 1977 so if this has to be
the biggest find this century it must be bigger or has definately the potential
to be bigger ?

Also 1.1km oil column comparing this the Clair field this would implicate that the
halifax area has double the pay compare with Clair field and with no OWC still not
found this is more than likely a lot bigger than we think?

The Clair reservoir was discovered in 1977, with exploration well #206/8-1a penetrating a 568-metre (1,864 ft) oil column in a thick sequence of Devonian to Carboniferous continental sandstone

[ngms27] 27/3/2017 10:53

I have a few points:

We don't know what the tilt is of the OWC but it's certainly not negligible over the distance. Remember at Halifax they haven't found the OWC despite drilling to 2004m TVDSS. At Lancaster they put the OWC at 1678m. So we know oil extends 326m below the OWC at Halifax but how much deeper?

Even if we assume 326m only thats an average of another 168m of oil over the areal extent where the reservoir breadth is greater. Thats very material over 30KM's. It could amount to 500m plus bonus barrels....

My current personal estimate is 1.5 billion which doesn't factor in the tilt and assumes a 19% recovery factor as per the current CPR.

I'm expecting to have to revise this materially after the CPR is published.

Either way the end game for the GLA is now in sight, the majors won't be letting this pass.

[bloodhound] 27/3/2017 10:51

We've been nearly as high as this share price wise pre-Halifax result. I think a lot of this is about funding/part funding probably in the 50-55 / 55-60p ranges with the CPR to move us up ahead of this.

The full value of HUR to holders will come with time, I'm prepared to wait this one out.

BH

[leeson31] 27/3/2017 10:48

imo, we'll see some broker notes with PT's over 145p out in the coming days.... but maybe they'll wait for the CPR first which is due one day this week.....

[pounddreamer] 27/3/2017 10:45

Another tweet from malcy: @mgrahamwood: @CorriganPaul @hurricomms Am writing blog, airport chat turns out to have been amazingly accurate under the circs! Mark my words this is big

[cinques] 27/3/2017 10:42

Helpful post from kjr59 on i i i

Wireline logging will have recorded very accurate pressure data eg MDT or XPT tools
and as any reservoir engineer knows that will prove the pressure is linked or not to the offset well.
If done then Hurricane's Dr Trice must know the pressure & that it's stable and same from Halifax to Lancaster and so can confidently claim they are linked.

The reservoir pressure is probably within 0.25psi accuracy for tool differences used, and distance, between these wells.

As for the "tilt" of the OWC work it out
its negligable over the distance
and geologically well known to occur in reservoirs...

and quit common in super giant fields over vast areas

Good luck all exciting times indeed!

[leeson31] 27/3/2017 10:40

thanks Temm, maybe we needed a numpty for a catalyst...... cheer$

[rackers1] 27/3/2017 10:39

'gone short'... and ??

[temmujin] 27/3/2017 10:39

gone short..

[temmujin] 27/3/2017 10:39

gone short..

[gisjob2] 27/3/2017 10:36

MrX001, the figures stated for Lancaster before Halifax was drilled was recoverable barrels based on 19% of oil in place, this is woefully understated and expected to be nearer 29% which I assume will be the figure in the new CPR. The EPS will show how the field will perform but it has an excellent PSI value.

[cinques] 27/3/2017 10:35

tgg - you mean that flare that could never have happened based on today's RNS?

[upwego] 27/3/2017 10:34

How much has hur spent drilling so far?

[cinques] 27/3/2017 10:34

Quite possibly those potential buyers are helping to keep the shareprice down.

[leeson31] 27/3/2017 10:33

i can just see Dr Trices' next speech ending...

hxxp://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-52064690,width-400,resizemode-4/52064690.jpg

"yeah, they're connected, and about the size of that little Clair field"....

[gregpeck7] 27/3/2017 10:29

Well I bought more this morning at 57p Cannot believe you can buy at this level.Smacks of big boys wanting their fill before letting it go. They don't want ca and kerogen to have all the fun.If we don't hit 100p soon we will be bought out though imo. I think 1.2 to 1.3 billion bid buys hur ATM and that is pennies to a major

[upwego] 27/3/2017 10:29

Big Boys will be all over this like a rash scraching there itch bum bums :)