Huntsworth Share Discussion Threads

[tamaybroke] 30/9/2005 21:28

Avanti screenmedia(.4)

[whealan] 30/9/2005 20:43

This is also picked up in MoneyWeek today.

"For 13 years, Peter Lynch's Fidelity Magellan Fund posted average returns of 29%. No fund manager in history has ever run a fund of its size so successfully for such a long time - so his advice ought to be worth a bob or two. Lynch was a great advocate of using the price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG) to find shares with big potential upside. The PEG is calculated by dividing the p/e ratio by the growth re in earnings per share (EPS). A PEG ratio well below 1 is ideal and implies that a firm's share price "has not yet caught up with the potential for exciting earnings growth in future", says Stephen Frazer in Shares.
... (bit about Jim Slater & PEG)
....But while investors should be looking for stocks with a low PEG, Peter Lynch was not attracted to stocks with a very low ratio, since this can imply unsustainable growth. As a rule of thumb, he looked for earnings growth between 15% and 30%, In other words, "decent growth at a reasonable price is the key". Of UK shares that fit Lynch's 15%-30% earnings-growth rule and have a PEG of less than one that are tipped by Frazer include Carr's Milling (with a PEG of 0.53),Galliford Try (0.36), Greene King (0.62),Huntsworth (0.5), Hyder Consulting (0.5), Pilat Media (0.7), Quantica (0.45) and XP Power (0.5)"

ADYOR etc

[its the oxman] 29/9/2005 13:10

for what its worth there is some positive comment in shares mag today - states the sale of its marketing activities to media square removes a significant reason for the groups discount to the wider media sector - namely an appropriate debt burden for a cyclical company.

'we believe this is an excellent decision leaving a focused international public relations business with virtually no debt' - says analyst lorna tilbian at numis

[whealan] 28/9/2005 10:42

Tillman
The volumes are so low I fear you may have been unlucky enough to get caught in a tree shake. Hope to see you back here.

[tillman] 28/9/2005 09:47

Just got stopped out of these whilst I was dithering over whether to sell or not.
Don't like the chart but I have that feeling it's just a bit odd at the moment and think the company will be fine....however,sp action is strange, results should have been out and are now not due until 17/10 but trading is still good...confusing but strict stop loss policy means it had to go.

Topped up big time in CHTR today...cracking results today, take a look!!

Best of luck!

[whealan] 27/9/2005 09:19

And Maude!

[phillis] 26/9/2005 20:42

2 problems solved at a stroke -the debt level and Nichols!

[andrewhbruce] 26/9/2005 18:06

important to stay north of the 200 day ma

[tillman] 26/9/2005 09:25

Sells were interesting last week in that they were large and didn't move the market! I was a bit puzzled as I was expecting the results very soon and I thought whoever was selling would want to wait...however, what are rel. big sells to us could have been peanuts in the scale of the seller.

In light of todays promising announcement, what interests me is whether the buyer got wind of the deal or was it just a sheer fluke!

I don't know the company that well but I have taken today's announcements very positively and believe that this could now be a turning point.

Any views from those that know the company better than I do?

Got some spare cash today as I have just been stopped out of VPC and MNW.

[its the oxman] 23/9/2005 11:42

some sizeable trades (sells) today and at yesterdays close - bit disappointing in run up to mid October results, although there does seem to be reasonable support around the 100p level.

Whealan - your kitchen sink view of results? are you expecting the share price to set back further - presumably it will be the outlook comments and restructuring benefits which will excite the market and all the indications are that these should please.

I am still hopeful of a near term run to 130p minimum based on eps of c.10p for next year. PE of 13 hardly too demanding. any views?

[whealan] 23/9/2005 11:00

laddi
Quite. Not a lot of people know that.
I expect a bit of a kitchen sink with this lot of results and the headline figure may not be exciting. They would in my view be well advised to get everything even vaguely nasty well out of the way, including the IFRS hit from share options etc and start to fill what in my day we called the "bottom drawer" for a rainy day, otherwise known as a bit of profit equalisation, albeit a naughty word these days.

[laddi] 23/9/2005 10:06

Whealan

I knew £2+ (in current prices) was what you meant. I completely agree - as the plan gradually executes this share will climb steadily upwards. In the short term if the solid foundations and fundementals are reinforced by the results in the next few weeks as well as any positive comments as to restructuring in the near future then we may see a move to a higher level.

The £2+ is my within 18 to 24 month target - even that would just be a reasonable valuation IMHO. Given that the company is leaner and highly geared to any wider improvements in the market - the target would move higher if there were positive underlying changes there.

[whealan] 22/9/2005 14:39

laddi
I woke up this morning wondering what on earth I was talking about in post 17 when I said I would be happy with £1. I was thinking old money, pre consolidation. Yes £2 would be nice but I hope for something a good deal better in due course. Wait till the game plan begins to be recognised and see where the share price settles. And THEN double it! All IMHO, DYOR etc etc

[whealan] 20/9/2005 16:10

laddi
If it's over £2 I shall retire - except I already am. I'd be happy with something approaching £1. (Edit-see next post!)
As I have said in an earlier post, financial services businesses like this often sell in a trade sale on what is effectively a turnover basis rather than profit for the obvious reason that it is to a greater or lesser extent a case of adding the revenue and absorbing (and eliminating) the expense into an existing cost base (the deal can of course be expressed on a p/e basis as well but is calculated by the purchaser on the basis of "added profit", i.e marginally). This has ranged over recent years from 1 1/2X turnover (normally) for a business which will continue to stand alone to as much as 6X (exceptionally) for one that is really wanted for fit or other reasons. It all depends who is buying it and what, in terms of management and fit on the plus side or commitments on the other, come with it. These things are much simpler than most people make out.

[laddi] 20/9/2005 09:50

Whelan

Spot on - the news is when this share will move. The short term price drifts on low volume are irrelevant. Strong results now with restructuring should confirm the upward fundemental trend for the company and I agree strongly with your view over the next 18 to 24 months with a target over £2 level.

[whealan] 19/9/2005 18:22

tillman
But there are those who watch. The volumes are tiny and the mm's spread has been 4%. They have just tightened the spread and reduced the offer by a p but kept the bid the same, hence the 1/2p off today. This share will move on news and substantial share purchases but has always drifted on low weak-holder retail volumes as the mm's try to get some interest going. The results will get close scrutiny from me, particularly at this stage the top line. I still think a trade sale in or within a couple of years when it has been grown and gripped is a wholly possible scenario. Think Shandwick.

[tillman] 19/9/2005 16:36

Strange that the share price is drifting...not quite what I was expecting!

My guess is that is should start turning up from @ current levels, esp. when there should be a bit more interest as the result announcement looms closer...due within the next 2 weeks.

Not much interest on this B.B.

[its the oxman] 24/8/2005 16:07

hnt holding onto its well deserved rise near top of its recent trading range - just got to watch and wait for next leg up - hoping for a break through 130p at least myself.

[laddi] 18/8/2005 06:50

Ad firm Incepta makes quiet entry in India

Signs strategic alliance with event firm Candid Marketing

Posted online: Thursday, August 18, 2005 at 0052 hours IST



NEW DELHI, AUGUST 17: One of the world's leading advertising group œ244.6 million Incepta Group Plc has made a quiet entry into the country. Based in London, Incepta - through its group company Dynamo International - has signed a strategic alliance with the New Delhi-based events and marketing company Candid Marketing Services. Analjit Singh, Max India chairman is on the Board of the company.

Incepta - ranked as the No 12 advertising organisation worldwide in 2004 with revenues of $280 million by Advertising Age - was formed from the merger of a number of PR and marketing agencies including Citigate and Dewe Rogerson. The group specialises in financial marketing and advertising and has a presence across 20 countries with 79 offices.

Industry observers believe that Incepta's entry into India through Dynamo could well be its first move to tap the growing Indian advertising market. With its presence in areas such as market research, design, public relations, event management and advertising, it will sooner or later, have a larger presence in India.

Candid, a mid-sized company, had been on the lookout for a partner for quite some time now. In fact, the company was at one time at an advanced stage of negotiations with Ogilvy & Mather (O&M) for a possible alliance/buyout. However, the talks fell through without reaching an agreement.

Subsequently, O&M opened its own events unit called Ogilvy Live.

Estimated to grow to Rs 1,500 crore by 2005 from its current estimated size of Rs 350 crore, the events industry, has of late, seen a spate of tie-ups and alliances.

While bigger advertising agencies are expanding their operations by adding events and promotions divisions, the medium-sized companies are seeking partnerships to increase their national and international presence. Rediffusion, for instance, also launched Rediffusion DY&R Relationship & Events Marketing recently, while Wizcraft has also opened a unit called Insignia. ''The tie-up between Candid and Dynamo International is a knowledge-based tie-up, there's no change of equity,'' Candid Managing Director Samarjit Singh said. He, however, did not rule out any change in the equity pattern of the company in the future.

''The tie-up will help us in acquiring new business, joint pitching across regions for global accounts along with focus on development of innovative technologies in the field of promotions and events, Candid CEO Atul Nath said.

[whealan] 12/8/2005 20:13

Tamaybroke
To answer your questions shortly, no and yes.
I am not a short term holder/trader of HNT & never have been (I have had about 1/3m shares-post consolidation-one way or another for some years at an average of 122.5) so may not be the right person at all to comment. The shares pre-merger were very tightly held indeed and quite large %ge movements took place on v low volumes.Post merger there have been,and may still be a lot of weak small holders who depress things from time to time as things settle down. See earlier posts if you are not familiar with the Co but IMHO this should be a 1st class medium term investment, perhaps a couple of years. Shorter term, who knows when its prospects will become recognised, but when it does the shares could fly. Remember that companies like this are bought and sold on top line figures not bottom line.
The recent purchases are insignificant in themselves but are part of a continuing growth pattern by acquisition which imho is just what is required as long as an eye is kept on borrowings, which it seems to be.There have been many similar ones on similar earn-out formulae. See the a/cs for Chadlington's objectives for building the group. As to what he is going to do with it in the end, see Shandwick??? ADYOR etcetc

[tamaybroke] 12/8/2005 16:52

any short term predictions,price that is, and comments on today's announcemnent??

[whealan] 02/8/2005 18:52

Andrew
Glad you have rejoined the party. It has been a long haul, a rocky road, etc etc but I think the end game we have always seen is now not toooo far off. The chart looks more cheerful too.